Baseball is here and I will give you tips on making money in
baseball. There are many ways to bet
baseball, unlike years ago when you were limited to either the home or road
team and maybe the total. Today, there are a variety of wagers you can make in
games.
One thing you have to remember is that the game of baseball
has changed over the last 20 or 30 years. At one time, pitchers like Gibson or
Koufax would regularly go the distance in their games. Bullpens didn’t have the
specialists they have today. Today, you have pitchers in the pen who only go
one inning or slightly more to close out games. These “closers” are some of the
highest paid pitchers today outside starters.
You also get setup men; these are the pitchers who come in to hold a
lead in the 6th thru 8th innings to get your team to the
closer. Or, they might be tasked with keeping your team close if they are
losing. Today, baseball is about
specialists.
The problem is that the lines the oddsmaker put on a game
are largely based on those starting pitchers. Today’s starting pitchers rarely
go eight or nine innings. This is mainly because managers want their starters
to keep a fresher arm later in the season. If you pitch them to long into games
you run the risk of blowing out their arms later in the season. Many pitchers
are even put on pitch counts. Once they reach that count, they come out. Much more
emphasis is put on bullpens now.
Understanding
Money Lines: Unlike football and
basketball, lines in baseball are made of money lines. That is a team has a
money value and that determines the size of the bet you must make to make one
unit of profit. If the Dodgers are -1.60, then you have to wager $160 to win
$100. In football and basketball you
have spreads, but the money line is usually consistent at -1.10. In other words
you would need to wager $110 to win $100. This is called the “Vig” or
“Vigorish.” Sure you can find variations
in this, but for the most part this is the standard. That means your break-even point is about 52%
winners. If you win 52% of your wagers,
you are going to break about even. This isn’t true for baseball, where the
money line can be anywhere from a dog to a high priced favorite. That 52% could be lower if you are strictly a
dog player or much higher if you play all favorites. So understanding this will help you determine
what kinds of wagers you need to make.
Favorite Parlays:
If you are like a lot of players, you like playing the favorites. Problem is that if you lose, you are put into
a bigger hole by the higher Vig. This is
especially true if you are playing -2.00 or higher favorites. And trust me;
these big favorites lose all the time.
One wager I will make, is a two or three team parlay with the bigger
favorites. Sure, you have to win all
your games, but now instead of laying $240 to make $100, you may be playing
$100 to win $100.
First 5 Innings:
This leads me to one of my favorite types of wagers, the first five innings.
Most books now take these bets and when you play a pitcher you like, you can be
assured that he will go at least five innings to get that win. That is unless
he’s getting shelled, then you likely will lose anyways. You can’t rely on the bullpens to hold a lead
for you or stay close if you are behind. Some pens are overused or they have to
rest the better relievers. So when you wager on first five, you can expect your
pitcher to go that distance. That is what makes this type of wager one of my
favorites. Moreover, if you are a favorite player, you will lay less with the
favorite in five innings then you will for the entire game.
Team Totals: Most people understand that when you play a
total in baseball you are wagering on the over or under of the combined runs of
both teams. However, today, you can also play the over/under runs of just one
of the teams. I like these kinds of
wagers when I understand how one team will perform with their starting pitcher
and bullpen, but the opposing team may be a question mark. For example, let’s
say I like the under in the Dodgers/Giants game, but I don’t like the Giants
pitcher necessarily. I can bet the Giants UNDER for the game knowing the
Dodgers will keep them down. That way if
the Dodgers win 8-1 or 7-2, I can still collect on an under in the Giants total
while I might have lost the combined total.
Playing against
overpriced favorites: This is one way I like to bet, but takes a lot of
work. I look for pitchers that are overpriced and I will play the underdog. This might require making your own lines on
games before they are posted. This gives you a base to see if the favorites are
overpriced. This also may require you to do more homework on teams and pitchers
to see if the pens are overused or the starter is only going five or six innings.
You look for an edge on the dogs with your handicapping.
Run Line Bets
: Runs lines are more of what we would call a combination line. That is, a line
with both a spread (in this case 1 ½) and a money line. This is a good way to bet your big favorites.
When you lay 1 ½ runs, you won’t have to lay as much money or you might even
get plus money. If Kershaw is a 2.40 favorite today, laying the 1 ½ runs might
drop that money line as low as -1.30. I know some handicappers that will parlay
three big favorites and back that bet up with three run line bets on the same
teams. Run Lines are also a way to bet
the dog, lose the game and still win your bet. If you take +1 ½ runs and you
get +1.20 on the money line and your team loses 4-5, you still make $120 for
each $100 unit you bet on that dog.
Weather :
Coming out of spring training, pitchers are used to the warm temperatures of
Arizona and Florida. When the season starts, you have pitchers pitching in some
very cold climates in the Midwest and East Coast. It’s always tougher to loosen
up pitchers when it’s cold, especially when they were used to pitching in those
warm preseason climates. This year, the season started early and we have seen
games with snow and frigid temperatures. This is an early season condition you need to
consider when doing your handicapping and can often produce some nice dog wins.
I personally like to play teams in the early season that play in warmer
climates or domed stadiums.
Whatever way you like to bet baseball, be sure to explore
more of today’s betting options. These will open up opportunities for you to make
money where you might now have been able to in year’s past. Enjoy the baseball
season and remember to do your homework.
For more of Jim Feist click here.