April and May means that many novice sports
bettors may look at the matchups and lean toward ace pitchers and lay the big
price. But let me give you three words of advice: Don't do it. Baseball is
unique from football and basketball in that there is no point spread. Instead
you bet merely on which team will win the game and this translates into a
money-line wager.
When betting baseball, most
professional handicappers look for prices that are close to even money (for
example, -120, -135 favorites or +105, +130 underdogs). Or bettors will
play baseball totals where, like NFL and NBA totals, there is a point spread
set on each game and the line is usually minus-110 OVER or UNDER.
The reason is simple: You need to
pay serious attention to money-management when wagering on sports. You may like
to bet on Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale because they are big
name win a lot, but you end up laying roughly two to three dollars for every
one you hope to win and, over the long haul, you are very likely to lose money.
This is why you rarely find professional handicappers giving out ace pitchers
that are priced as a two-dollar or more favorites.
And what happens when ace pitchers have
an injury or a bad season? Former dominant aces Matt Harvey, Justin Verlander
and Adam Wainwright have struggled this year. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey had one
monster season then changed leagues, struggling in the hitter friendly AL East
ever since. Verlander has been all over the place since winning 24 games back
in 2011, going 13-12, 15-12 and 5-8 in three straight season. 33-32 is not an
ace -- especially if you're backing him as a -180 favorite.
Betting the big favorites on a
regular basis is dangerous and there is little value in it. Think about the
value: You have to win 2 out of every 3 of those wagers just to break even.
That is roughly a 66% winning percentage just to stay afloat, or in the case of
Kershaw at -240, an even higher percentage.
Max Scherzer made waves with that
incredible 20-strikeout game last year, but did you realize that was in the
middle of a stretch where the team went 2-4? After throwing the 20 strikeout/no
walk gem in a 3-2 win, he lost 2-0 the next time out, lasting just over six
innings. And that's the thing about aces, especially in the NL when managers
may have to pinch hit for them: They don't throw 8-9 innings every start.
There are so many factors
that can come into play in baseball. For example, the wind could be blowing
out, making both starting pitchers vulnerable to a lot of runs and a lot of
pitches. This could mean that your ace would throw 100 pitches in five innings.
If that is the case, he would be prone to tire around the 100-pitch mark,
and/or the game would be turned over the bullpen, something you hadn't counted
on. Then, all of a sudden the game is in the relief pitcher's hands, rather
than the staff ace that you were counting on to go 8 innings.
Or, a team may fall apart
defensively. A couple of ill-timed errors with two outs and two men on base via
walks, and you are down 3-0. You had not factored in the errors, only the great
starting pitcher. One season Roy Halladay was a three-dollar favorite at
home against the Pirates (as he should have been). He pitched great, allowing 2
runs in a complete game, but lost 2-1 as the Phillies mustered only six hits
while committing three errors. In 2011 Justin Verlander was outstanding, even
throwing a no-hitter. Yet, the Tigers started 3-5 in his first eight starts -
all as chalk!
Sometimes teams get pumped up to
face an ace, particularly at home, and want to get a win. Another factor
is that in the first half of the baseball season, lines are often set on what
the pitcher did last year, not the current season. The Blue Jays, Royals,
Rangers and Mets have not played as well this year as last.
Meanwhile, the Reds, Rockies,
Diamondbacks and Yankees have overachieved. Some of those teams disappointing
teams will get better, but the point is, you can't go on last year's stats from
these starters, as 2017 is a brand new season.
Also, what if the starting pitcher
gets injured? Or there is a rain delay, and the big favorite pitcher only goes
3 innings? If you had known this before the game started, you probably
wouldn't have taken the big price. In baseball, look for spots with big dogs
rather than the big favorites; the percentages are in your favor.
For more of Jim Feist click here.