More than any other sport, baseball is a game of
patience. It's not how you start, but where you finish, and with a 162-game
regular season, there is a LOT of baseball left. Did your team get off to a bad
start? Well don't panic. There is plenty of time to make adjustments and turn
things around. Did your team get off to a hot start? Don't start making World
Series reservations just yet.
A year ago this month the Tampa Bay Rays
enjoyed a pair of four-game win streaks, each time giving them a winning record.
But who remembers? By October, the Rays were a last place team (68-94).
A year ago this week the Chicago
White Sox were rolling in the AL Central with a 19-8 start. A loud thud
followed, finishing in fourth place with a losing record. Three years ago this
week Kansas City was 14-17 and, as usual, going nowhere in the American League.
Fast forward to October and the amazing Royals were hosting Game 7 of the World
Series. That same season in June the San Francisco Giants had a miserable 5-18
skid, certainly not looking like the champs they would become in October.
Four summers ago Boston had a major
makeover from a last place finish and won the World Series. But hot starts
don't guarantee anything. Two years ago this week the Milwaukee Brewers were
22-11, distancing itself from the pack in the NL Central. But when the season
ended, there they were in third place with an 82-80 mark.
Three years ago in June the Dodgers were
sitting in last place with a 29-38 record, looking up at four other teams. By
the time October rolled around they were in first place, 11-game ahead of
Arizona! The Giants have won three of the last seven World Series. They
were also just a .500 team, trailing the Dodgers the first week of May in 2012,
but ended up October champs.
Look at it
another way: A year ago at this time three of the six first-place teams didn't
win their division. Two years ago the only NL division leader at this time that
went on to win the division was Washington. And in the AL the Angels ended up
passing Oakland by 10 games.
So don't panic if your team
is stumbling and don't start thinking about printing playoff tickets if your
team started 18-7. Some of the early season disappointments have been the Red
Sox, Royals, Mets, Cardinals and Dodgers. But remember that a few years ago the
Phillies started 1-7 and ended up as NL East champs, while the eventual NL
Champion Rockies were 10-16, last place in the NL West at the end of April, and
45-46 at the All Star break.
History is littered with slow
starts and lightening finishes. In 2003, the Florida Marlins started 19-29 and
ended up winning the World Series. In 2002, the Angels started 6-14 and wound
up winning their first World Series.
Oakland GM Billy Beane once said
you spend the first third of the season seeing what you have and evaluating
your team. The middle third trying to acquire pieces to fill weak spots, and
the final third sitting back and watching the team make a run at the postseason
-- or not. We are in the first third of the season and there's a long way to
go. General Managers are in the process of evaluating what they have.
In the same way GMs need patience
when analyzing baseball, so do handicappers. Surprises will emerge
over a long season and offer smart bettors good value for their wagering
dollar, even with individual players. Pitchers are more susceptible to injuries
than any other professional athletes and remember that betting numbers are made
based on current and past performance. It can take a while before oddsmakers
catch on to a struggling or injured pitcher.
A few years ago the
Royals started 17-4, the Mariners started 40-18 and the Diamondbacks were 52-42
at the All Star break. None made the playoffs. Those examples give hope to
those teams that are off to struggling starts and should provide caution to
teams that are in first place. After all, it's only May!
For more of Jim Feist click here.