With
a helping hand from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four key
time-tested proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening
round of playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say
as we head into the 2019 postseason.
No. 8 Seeds Are Often
Behind The 8-Ball
For
the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched
and clawed their way into the post-season. Simply put, they are not good
enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents, as they
were just barely better than the dregs of the league.
Rest
assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 72% of
the time (61-162 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In
fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors, and the
2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top-seeded foes and
advance to Round Two of the playoff.
And
you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off
consecutive SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with
alarming regularity, going 5-30 SU and 11-24 ATS, including 0-18 SU and 3-15
ATS when the 8-ballers are coming off a spread loss of more than 4 or more
points in their last game. Be aware.
Upset Losers Are Winners
Yes,
you read that right... it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful
handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in
an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.
That’s
confirmed by the fact that they are 76-17 SU and 55-34-4 ATS, a rock solid
number 61.7 winning spread angle. And if these upset victims happen to be
a No. 1, 2, or 3 seed they are a jaw-dropping 42-4 SU and 29-16-1 ATS in these
follow-up affairs, including 25-3 SU and 20-7-1 ATS when coming off a spread
loss of 11 or more points.
Don’t
be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their
composure. Instead, they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in
games after being embarrassed.
Double-Digit Dogma
Surprisingly,
in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests,
especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are
35-25-2 ATS in this role.
And
if these same guys lost as a double-digit dog in their last game they zoom to
26-14-1 ATS, including 18-7 ATS against non-division foes.
Granted,
these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they
tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping
heavy lumber.
And Down Goes Frazier
The
psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface
during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that
teams riding a 0-3 loss-skein in this round are wobbly and oftentimes one punch
away from being counted out.
With
glass-like jaws, these swirling 0-3 teams are just 87-110 SU and 87-102-1 ATS
in opening round contests, including 16-52 SU and 26-42 ATS away from home.
Worst
of all, road dogs of more than four points down 0-3 in the series are 3-32 SU
and 10-25 ATS on their way to the canvas.
Trending
Defending
champions, once again the Golden State Warriors in this case, are 86-35 SU and
66-50-5 ATS overall in opening round games the next season, including 19-8 SU
and 17-9-1 ATS in Game One of Round One the following season.
Better
yet, these champs are 17-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss of 6 or more points
during the first round, including a spotless 6-0 ATS away since 2005.
Enjoy
the opening round of the 2019 NBA playoffs.
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