With
the 2017 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let's take a different
perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. This one pertains
specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight
year.
Do these experienced teams perform with
aplomb or do they bomb? It all depends on the situation. Let's take a peek.
ALL HANDS ON DECK
Unlike the last two years when half a
dozen teams each returned to round of 32 this season, only five make a return
visit this season. They include Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina,
Oregon, and Wisconsin.
According to our database, since 1992,
teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 80-51 SU but only
58-70-3 ATS in this round of the tourney.
However, The cut-line, however, is often
times the situation surrounding the game. Check out the examples below.
NOT QUITE A 10
Looking at it from a varied
perspective, SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of
less than 10 points, going just 33-27 SU and 23-35-2 ATS.
This year finds four of the five
returnees, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon, and Wisconsin coming
up short in the gene pool.
And making matters worse, if any of
these sweet tomatoes sport a high profile public-loving win percentage of .790
or greater on the season they fall to 11-22-1 ATS. Not particularly good news
for the Zags, the Tar Heels, or the Ducks.
HOT DIGGETY DOG
One of the major roles Sweet 16
Returnees will respond to, however, is when they are cast into an underdog
position.
Simply put, Sweet 16 Returnees cast
into a Rodney Dangerfield lack of respect role of an underdog of 8 or less
points are 16-11-1 ATS. That alone pulls Oregon and Wisconsin off the
hook outlined above when they take on Michigan and Florida, respectively.
Better yet, if they are taking facing a
sub .830 opponent in this role they win 62% of the time on the scoreboard,
going 8-5 SU and 9-3-1 ATS. Go Ducks.
SEEDY DEVELOPMENT
As expected, #1 and #2 seeds fare the
best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 58-17 SU combined. To the spread,
however, they are just 37-37-1 ATS, including 12-16-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or
fewer points (read: Gonzaga and Kansas).
Meanwhile, the same Sweet 16 Returnee
No. 1 and No. 2 seeds that are favored by 6 or fewer points are just 2-8-1 ATS
in these games when taking on .800 or greater foes. Once again, this is not
good news for the Zags of the Jayhawks.
Make no mistake, when it comes to
handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the
better-qualified teams that have 'been there-and-done that'. Or those who know
how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean...
For more of Marc Lawrence click here.