The
opening weekend of 2015 NCAA tournament action was in-credible-both on the
courts and in Las Vegas. Sportsbook crowds were bigger than I've ever seen
them. Certainly, I've never seen big crowds quieter than during that first day
when an astounding 12 of 16 underdogs covered the spread. Throw in the first
four "play in" games-in which the 'dogs swept the board-and underdogs covered
16 of the first 20 games in the Big Dance.
The
betting public always leans too heavily on favorites in March, and generally pays
a price for doing so-but never like this.
Last
week I mentioned how handicapping the first week-end was all about evaluating
"chess matches." You definitely saw that play out. The classic strengths
(defense, guard play, rebounding) generally held up. The classic weaknesses
(soft inside defense, over-reliance on 3-pointers, poor coaching tactics) sent
many teams home.
How
do you handicap from this point forward when all the chess winners are now
playing each other? You'll hear many veteran analysts this week say something
to the effect of "it's all about the matchups." That's just as true now as it's
ever been, as chess basically turns to Rock, Paper, Scissors, where what works
great against one team won't work at all against the other.
For
example: Offenses that attack the basket will bully relatively passive inside
defenses, but will run into brick walls against teams that sport a tall,
physical inside presence. Meanwhile, offenses that depend on 3-pointers can
shoot over those brick walls, but will find it tough getting open looks against
hustling perimeter defenses.
With
this in mind, here are some tips for successfully bet-ting this week's Sweet 16
and Elite Eight games:
Tip #1: Know the strengths, weaknesses and
preferred styles of all 16 remaining teams! If you watched a lot of games last
weekend, you probably have a good sense for this. Visit your favorite
basketball stat site to review key performance numbers on offense, defense,
rebounding and pace (especially pace!), so you have an accurate picture of all
eight Sweet 16 matchups. Then go back and review your notes when the winners
play in the regional finals.
Tip #2: Now that you know each team's key
weakness, determine if their opponent is capable of exploiting it. If the
answer is obviously "yes" for one team and "no" for the other, you probably
have a smart bet on your hands. If both offenses can exploit the other's
defense, then the "Over" might be the best play. If neither offense is
positioned to perform well, look to the "Under."
Now,
Rock, Paper, Scissors by itself isn't enough, because we still have to consider
line value. Generally speaking, "whoever wins, covers" has always been a good
rule of thumb at this point. Problem is, there are still some pricey teams
remaining in the tournament laying inflated numbers. Kentucky (36-0) may have
one of the best teams in college basketball history, but they're still 0-2
against the spread so far in thistournament. Wisconsin is another No. 1 seed
that failed to cash in its two tourney contests.
So
which teams are most likely to be overvalued this week? Media darlings; teams
that shot over their heads last week (don't forget to read those box scores!);
and teams that lucked into easy draws (review the brackets!).
Who's
most likely to be underrated? Grinders that advanced despite shooting below
their season average; teams from non-TV conferences that have great guards
and/or strong defenses; and teams that have developed an "us against the world"
chip on their shoulders.
Tip #3: Now do a quick "market evaluation" to
determine whether each of the Sweet 16 teams is likely to be "over-rated,"
"underrated" or "properly rated," based on the bullet points above. This will
only take you a few minutes, but will help isolate potential potholes or
pathways.
Whatever
you do when you get to the counter this week-end, good luck. I'll be back next
week to break down handicapping strategies for Final Four weekend. Those
strategies may be as simple as, "Can anyone challenge Kentucky?!" Or maybe the
2015 Dance has a big surprise in store before Indianapolis.
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