2016 SEC
Conference Football Betting Preview
By Marc
Lawrence
Rolling With The Tide
When Alabama captured
last year’s College Football Playoffs it marked the eighth time in the last 10
years that an SEC school claimed the National Championship.
Speaking of the Tide,
for the 2nd time in the last 5 years, Alabama had 5 players selected in the Top
50 of this year’s NFL draft. In fact, looking back at the over the last 5 years
the top 10 picks in the NFL draft has seen the following conference breakdown:
SEC 20, Big 12 10, Pac-12 8, ACC 7, MAC 2, AAC/Big Ten/Independent 1 each.
Take Your Choice
In
Las Vegas, Alabama and LSU lead the 2016 SEC win totals brigade at 10 apiece,
followed by Tennessee at 9.5. Next in line are Georgia and Ole Miss at 8.5
wins, followed by Arkansas and Florida at 7.5. Auburn, Mississippi State and
Texas A&M are next in line with 6.5 wins.
If the oddsmakers are
correct – and they usually are - that would mean 10 teams from the nation’s
most powerful league would earn bowl berths.
On the outside looking
in are Missouri with 5.5, with Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt rounding
things out with 5 victories.
Coordinate This
According to TigerBait.com,
for the second year in a row there have been football coordinator shifts at a majority of the
Southeastern Conference schools.
Four teams made no
changes – Arkansas, Florida, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. All four of those teams
increased their victory total in 2015.
Two head coaches fired
offensive coordinators – Mark Stoops dismissed Shannon Dawson at Kentucky and
Kevin Sumlin replaced Jake Spavital at Texas A&M. One head coach fired a
defensive coordinator – Butch Jones dismissed John Jancek at Tennessee.
Alabama and Auburn
will have new defensive coordinators after Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp became
the head coaches at Georgia and South Carolina, respectively. LSU and
Mississippi State had their defensive coordinators make lateral moves – Kevin
Steele to Auburn and Manny Diaz to Miami. Ole Miss’ Hugh Freeze is the only
head coach who will have the same coordinators for a third straight season.
Note: Team write-ups are excerpts
from the 2016 PLAYBOOK College and Pro Football Preview Guide magazine.
Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on
offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an
asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
2016 SEC
EAST PREVIEW
FLORIDA Off – *6/3 Def – 6/2 48
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: SLIP SLIDING
Somehow,
despite an offense that slipped 7 points and 34 yards per game last season, the
Gators slid into a 10-win campaign to begin the Jim McElwain era. Year Two
finds two new quarterbacks battling for starting honors with redshirt sophomore
Luke Del Rio holding a slight edge over Purdue transfer Austin Appleby. The
real strength of the team, though is its defense, led by Caleb Brantley and a
10-deep defensive line loaded with 5 and 4-star talent. In addition, Eddy
Pineiro, the No. 1 JUCO kicker in the land, brings a long-range leg to the
program. After being deeply gutted last year, underclassmen made a total of 134
starts in 2015, the 5th most in the land.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Gators tied with lowly Kansas for the 3rd worst red zone offense
last season.
PLAY
AGAINST: at Tennessee (9/24)
GEORGIA Off – *8/3 Def – 6/1 43
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: SMART MOVE
A new
era begins in Athens where new HC Kirby Smart now walks in legendary Mark
Richt’s shoes after the Bulldogs let a malcontent Richt go – despite compiling
a 146-51 mark in 15 years between the hedges. QB Greyson Lambert started 12 of
13 games last season while setting the NCAA record for completion percentage in
a game when he connected on 24-of-25 passes against South Carolina. RBs Nick
Chubb and Sony Michel complete a powerful punch in the backfield. The Dawgs led
the SEC in pass defense last season and all 4 starters return. Speaking of
which, Smart started at safety for Georgia from 1995-98 and was Alabama’s DC
the past 9 seasons. He looks to be a keen hire, indeed.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Thirty-one of the Bulldogs’ 51 losses under Mark Richt were by 7
points or less.
PASS
KENTUCKY Off - 9/4 Def – 6/2 43 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: ON THE CLOCK
The
critical 4th year of the Mark Stoops era in Lexington kicks off with plenty of
promise. Behind a defense that’s made solid gains each of the past 2 seasons,
the Wildcats turn to a favorable schedule which features 7 home games, with no
back-to-back road games. JR RB Boom Williams, who set a single-season school
record by averaging 7.1 yards per carry last year, leads a deep rushing corps
with 1,341 yards and 11 TDs on 195 carries. Still, it’s been 6 straight losing
seasons as the wear and tear of facing the nation’s 5th most difficult schedule
in 2015 buried the Cats when they went 0-7 to close out the campaign. The clock
is ticking for Stoops’ troops.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: After completing a $120M “reimagining” of Commonwealth Stadium last
year, Kentucky debuts a new $45M practice complex this season.
PLAY ON:
vs. Vanderbilt (10/8)
MISSOURI Off – *5/1 Def – 8/4 45
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: TIGER BLOOD
To say
it was a tough year for the Tigers last season is an understatement of major
proportions. Gary Pinkel, the winningest coach in program history, announced
his retirement following a diagnosis with lymphoma. One-day prior, the team
successfully protested an on-campus racial incident that led to the university
president’s resignation. And former starting QB Maty Mauk was tossed from the
team for violating team policies. In the end, Mizzou went from 11 wins to 5,
putting a merciful end to a calamitous season. It’s 2016 and former DC Barry
Odom takes over as head coach hoping new OC Josh Heupel (BYU) can instill a ray
of life into a program desperately in need of a transfusion.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 23-1 SU and 17-5 ATS the last 3 years in games where
they outgain their opponent.
PASS
SOUTH CAROLINA Off
– *4/2 Def – 6/2 44 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: LONG AND ROCKY ROAD
We agree
that new head coach Will Muschamp didn’t walk into a great
situation. The Gamecocks’ 1st-year coach acknowledged his team has a
shocking lack of talent. “We need to have more playmakers. We don’t have too
much depth. On defense, the secondary is a concern just for coverage
ability down the field.” It’s not like a lot of injuries caused USC’s 3-9 slide
last year and all those players are healthy now. The Gamecocks’ systematic
failure in recruiting since the middle of a 33-6 3-year run has left them well
behind what they’re about to face this season. “It means we’ve got some
good walk-ons here,” said Muschamp. As in “Good enough to play over guys
we put on scholarship." Gulp.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Gamecocks were outscored by 10.2 PPG and outyarded by 109 YPG
versus conference foes, worst in the SEC last season.
PASS
TENNESSEE Off – *9/4 Def – 8/3 57
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: ORANGE SWARM
Head
coach Butch Jones has improved the Vols’ win total by 2 games each of the last
two years. That’s an improvement of leaps and bounds for a team that was stuck
on 5 wins for three years running after he took the reins in 2013. The surge
started in 2014 after Tennessee played 23 true freshmen – the most in the
nation – the year prior, and then followed it up with 240 total returning
starts in 2015. UT is loaded with returning starters this year, including SR QB
Joshua Dobbs (14-5 over his last 19 starts) and a group of underclassmen that
made 143 starts last season (2nd most in the nation). Once again, beware of the
Vols.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Vols’ combined margin of defeat of 17 points was the fewest of
any FBS program that finished with 3 or more losses last season.
PASS
VANDERBILT Off – *8/3 Def – 7/2 58
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: A WHOLE NEW SPIN ON THE MASON JAR
After 26
players made their first FBS start for Derek Mason’s fledgling team in 2014, a
total of 123 overall starts were made by underclassmen last season.
Vanderbilt’s youth movement paid off in 2015, as it was one of the nation's
most improved defenses under Mason’s direction. He’ll continue to handle the
defensive coordinator chores for the second straight year in 2016, welcoming
back 5 of his top 6 tacklers. Expect 6 new coaches on the staff this year to
stress ball protection and takeaways. In their recent 3-year bowl run, the
'Dores were a combined +8 in turnover margin. They own a jarring -24 in
turnover margin the last 2 years under Mason.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Commodores are 0-15 SU and 2-13 ATS in Game Six of the season
the last 15 years.
PLAY ON:
at Western Kentucky (9/24)
2016 SEC
WEST PREVIEW
ALABAMA Off – 6/3 Def – 5/1 48 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: THREE’S COMPANY
As has
become the rule, the Tide was hit hard with graduation losses and NFL
defections once again this year. But before shedding a tear, it’s a well-known
fact that Alabama has significantly out-recruited teams each of the last 5
years – meaning all they do is re-load. It’s easy to do when your coach is
110-18, with 4 conference and 4 national championships, at the school. And your
team has made an NCAA record 63 bowl appearances. Beware: Alabama freshmen
started a combined 57 games last season, meaning the losses they incurred will
be filled in like magic putty, making the Tide’s primary goal this season to
win a 3rd straight SEC title for the first time since 1977-79.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Tide was the first team to win back-to-back SEC titles last year
since 1997-98 Tennessee.
PLAY ON:
at Mississippi (9/17)
ARKANSAS Off – 5/2 Def – 9/3 52 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: HARD-TRYING HOGS
A 6-2
finish squashed a dismal 2-4 start last season, sending the Hogs to a 3rd
straight bowl game under HC Bret Beilema. Behind a stripped-down offense, the
Razorbacks will rely on a defense that could be tremendous up front. If new
defensive assistant Paul Rhoads (a former defensive coordinator and head coach
at Iowa State the past 8 seasons) can make a difference, it could make the
Razorbacks a force on that side of the ball. But replacing all-SEC QB Brandon
Allen (3,340 yards, 30 TDs and 8 INTs) and all SEC RB Alex Collins (1,577
yards, 20 TDs) on offense will be a daunting task. Tackling 10 foes with
winning records last year makes it even more problematical.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Razorbacks tied with South Carolina for the fewest fumbles lost
(3) last season.
PLAY ON:
vs. Texas A&M (9/24)
AUBURN Off – *6/3 Def – 6/3 53
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: DON’T FUSS WITH GUS
Arguably
the most disappointing team in college football last season, the Tigers (picked
to win the conference title and make the College Football Playoff by many
respected scribes) look to reverse their misfortune with a helping hand from
the schedule maker. Opening the season with 5 consecutive home games while
having no back-to-back road games, Auburn will take to the highway a mere 4
times this campaign. Granted, 7 of its first 8 games come against bowl teams,
but 4 of them are SEC revengers. New DC Kevin Steele comes over from LSU
looking to patch a defense that has surrendered 408 YPG under Malzahn’s tenure.
Expect 2016 to be the year of the Tiger in the SEC.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 29-0 SU at home in non-conference games since 2007.
PLAY ON:
as a dog at Georgia (11/12)
LSU Off – *9/3 Def – 9/4 49
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: EYE OF THE TIGER
He’s
back… although he never left. And for what seems like the umpteenth time, head
coach Les Miles’ threat to leave LSU last year once again never took place.
Thus, the Mad Hatter welcomes back a powerful class loaded with experience, and
RB Leonard Fournette, who is a frontrunner in the Heisman Trophy race. Unlike
Miles’ threats that never seem to materialize, the Tigers finally reversed a
bad trend last year that had seen them regress each of the previous three years
in the SEC West standings. Now, behind a team that won its first 7 contests
last year, and with no back-to-back road games in sight this season, the
Bengals have the distinct look of a tiger possessed.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Tigers’ seniors started a combined 34 games last season, the fewest
in the nation.
PLAY ON:
vs. Mississippi (10/22)
MISSISSIPPI Off – *3/0 Def – 5/2 61
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: FREEZER BURN
QB Chad
Kelly, nephew of Buffalo Bills’ great Jim Kelly, and the SEC Newcomer of the
Year and All-SEC second team selection last year, returns. Kelly broke or tied
14 single-season school records while leading the SEC in passing, total offense
and TD passes. Meanwhile, head coach Hugh Freeze is the first Ole Miss coach to
lead his teams to bowl appearances in each of his first 4 seasons at the helm.
He’s also led the Rebels to back-to-back 9-win seasons for the first time since
1962. Unfortunately, the team was not only heavily burned by graduation losses
and NFL player defections – the biggest being DT Robert Nkemdiche – but they
must also take on 10 bowl teams.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Freeze is 28-4 SU and 21-6 ATS in games versus .500 or less
opponents, including 11-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes.
PASS
MISSISSIPPI STATE Off – 6/3 Def – 7/2 43 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: NICE WHILE IT LASTED
After
losing a quarterback that put up some of the most impressive numbers in SEC
history, Mississippi State is in a pinch – in more ways than one. QB Dak
Prescott has started for the Bulldogs each of the last 3 seasons, setting 28
school records, including total offensive yards, touchdowns, passing yards,
passing touchdowns, passing efficiency, and on and on. Head coach Dan Mullen
must also replace his rushing leader from last season – that also being
Prescott. Worse, DC Manny Diaz left after one year to join Mark Richt at Miami.
In addition, their leading tackler and best interior linemen have moved onto
the NFL. Road games at Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss ensure a sizable step back in
2016.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Bulldogs were the worst team in the nation in fewest fumbles
recovered (1) last season – 14 fewer than the top team.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. Auburn (10/8)
TEXAS A&M Off – 6/2 Def – 6/2 50 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: OFFENSIVE MUSICAL MAKEOVER
Oklahoma
graduate transfer Trevor Knight assumes the quarterback reins in 2016. Knight,
who was beaten out by Baker Mayfield last year, was a 2-year starter and led the Sooners to a Sugar Bowl victory against Alabama
as a redshirt freshman in 2013. The Aggies lost
previous blue chip starting signal callers Kyle Allen (who transferred to Houston) and Kyler
Murray (Oklahoma) earlier this offseason. Kevin
Sumlin’s 2nd-highest-paid coaching staff has added new OC Noel Mazzone, who
worked wonders with Brett Hundley and Josh Rosen at UCLA. Meanwhile, prized
former LSU DC John Chavis helped tighten things up defensively in 2015 as the
Aggies improved 71 YPG – despite taking on the 10th toughest schedule in the
land.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The overall stats winner has won SU in each of the last 16 Aggies’
games.
PLAY ON:
at Alabama (10/22)
For more of Marc Lawrence, click here.