We're Back
According to the Pac-12, a total of
178 starters, who started at least half of his team's games or a majority of
games at a specific position, return to Pac-12 football squads in 2018. That's
out of a possible 288 (including placekickers and punters) for an average of
14.8 starters returning per team.
Among those 178 returning starters
are a number of key players, including
10 first-team and 12 second-team All-Pac-12 performers. Arizona, California,
and Washington each return the most with 18 starters, followed by Oregon State with
16. Washington State returns the fewest starters with 10.
Newbies
Five new coaches enter the league
this season. It's the highest number of new coaches on the sidelines in one
season for the Pac-12.
UCLA's Chip Kelly returns for his
second stint in the Pac-12. Kelly posted a 46-7 record in four seasons at
Oregon (2009-12) and led the Ducks to the 2010 BCS title game. Other new
coaches include Arizona's Kevin Sumlin (averaged 8.7 wins over 10 seasons),
Arizona State's Herm Edwards (last coached in the NFL from 2001-08), Oregon's
Mario Cristobal (won three national titles as a player and an assistant coach),
Oregon State's Jonathan Smith (returns to his alma mater making his head
coaching debut).
Note: Team
write-ups are excerpts from the 2018 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine,
on sale at newsstands nationwide. The numbers following each team name
represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with
the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning
quarterback.
ARIZONA Off - *7/2 Def -
9/1 51 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: A NEW TATE OF MIND
As
is the undoing of many a successful man, it appears Rich's rod likely sealed
his fate. Such was the case when Arizona canned Rich Rodriguez, and his ghastly
$6M salary, for sexual misconduct. Enter Kevin Sumlin and his in-your-face
spread playbook, custom-designed for new phenom QB Khalil Tate, who burst on
the scene in October last season. After being inserted into the starting
lineup, Tate recorded a run of 70 more yards in each of his first four starts
while earning an unprecedented four straight Pac-12 Player of the Week awards. Safe
to say, Sumlin figures to utilize Tate to the max - much like he did with
dual-threat QB Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M - to operate the Cats' potent
3rd ranked rushing attack. "He's
moving from being an athlete that is a quarterback, to being a quarterback
that's an athlete," said Kevin Sumlin.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freshmen started 25.2% of all
Wildcats' games last season, the 3rd most in the nation.
PLAY AGAINST: at Washington State (11/17)
ARIZONA STATE Off -
*8/3 Def - 4/1 42 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: IN-AND-OUT BURGER
The release of contentious head coach Todd Graham
was considered a stunner. However, it was surpassed in magnitude when ASU
brought in long-retired and longtime NFL head coach Herm Edwards, who hasn't
coached in college in 30 years - and owned a 54-74 record as an NFL
mentor. Yeah, head scratching, to say the least. So as we see it, a
46-game winner over the past six years was replaced with a zero-game coach over
the last nine years. Smells like a lobbyist struck that deal. Meanwhile, heavy
attrition hit a soft front seven. Against the backdrop of a new staff, new
schemes and revamped lines of scrimmage, is a schedule laced with nine bowlers.
Sorry, but we don't see this experiment lasting long.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
Arizona State ranked No. 120 in passing yards allowed in 2017 after ranking
dead last (No. 128) the previous two seasons.
PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona (11/24)
CALIFORNIA Off - *10/3 Def - 7/1 56 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: GOOD NEWS BEARS
New coach Justin Wilcox's defense lived up to its
hype as the former DC guru improved the Bears' stop-unit by 88 YPG, its best
overall effort since 2011. The offense, though, slipped mightily. Through it
all, Cal came up one game shy of bowl eligibility despite the fact that
freshmen accounted for 20.2% of all starts last season (only six teams started
more). QB Ross Bowers is the Pac-12's leading returner in passing yardage after
throwing for 3,039 yards in 2017 (flash: he's being pushed by South Carolina
transfer QB Brandon McIlwain), and the running backs are deep and talented.
Operating behind all five starters returning to the offensive line should help
them blossom. Two other positives: Cal finished 37th nationally in turnover margin
behind all the young talent, and the Bears will take on the 5th easiest
schedule of all Power 5 schools in 2018 with foes going 76-77 (.497) last
season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Cal held Stanford, USC, Washington and Washington State below its
season average in points and total yards last season.
PLAY ON: at USC (11/10)
COLORADO Off
- *5/3 Def -
7/2 47 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: THIRSTING FOR MORE
Like a mirage to a water-starved victim crossing
the desert, the Buffaloes' 8-2 conference effort in 2016 surely looked like the
real deal. After all, they had gone a measly 3-33 in conference play the
previous four seasons. And then lo and behold, a 2-7 record in Pac-12 frays
last year found them free falling again, ending the season with a losing record
for the 11th time in the last 12 years. Things went so sideways that Colorado
had forced a turnover in each of its previous 30 home games - the longest skein
in the nation - until they hosted USC in their final game at Boulder last year.
QB Steven Montez is one of only fours starters back on offense. Pass the
canteen.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Colorado is 10-2 ATS in Last
Home Games, including 7-0 ATS versus sub .700 opponents.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oregon St (10/27) - *KEY as a
favorite
OREGON Off - *7/3 Def
- 7/2 43 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: CRYSTAL BALL DIGS CRISTOBAL
Now with its third coach in as many seasons, the
Ducks will soldier on under another new head coach in Mario Cristobal, an Oregon
assistant last year and former boss at Florida International. The good news is
that Oregon is 37-14 since 1995 the first season under a new head coach,
including 24-3 at home. Better news is the Ducks will face the easiest Power 5
schedule in 2018 according to the NCAA, as foes this season were just 65-87
(.428) last year. Aside from a strong
initial recruiting class, Cristobal welcomes back junior QB Justin Herbert. The
6' 6" 225-lb future NFL signal-caller went 6-2 last season before being shut
down with a shoulder injury. It's no coincidence OU led the nation in scoring
(49 PPG) when Herbert was in the lineup. It's important to note that Cristobal
is extremely well liked by the players, who campaigned for his hire after
Willie Taggart bolted for Florida State.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The straight-up winner 'in the
stats' is 24-1 in Oregon games the last two years, including 13-0 last season.
PASS
OREGON STATE Off - 7/4
Def - 8/1 45 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: MAPPING OUT A NEW PLAN
After two-and-a-half years
the Gary Andersen experiment is over following a 7-23 record, including a
paltry 3-18 mark in Pac-12 games. Mike Riley is returning to Oregon State -
only he will be joining Jonathan Smith's staff as assistant head coach. Riley
previously was the Oregon State head coach from 2003 to 2014, and also 1997 to
'98. Riley was fired Nov. 25 as head coach at Nebraska after going 19-19 over
three seasons. Smith, a former Beavers quarterback, was a graduate assistant at
Oregon State under Riley in 2003. If it sounds like a well-knit Beaver
connection, it is. The key to getting back on the map will be finding a way to
win conference games as OSU has dropped 26 of its last 29 Pac-12 performances.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Beavers have been
out-yarded in each of their last 19 away games.
PASS
STANFORD Off - *9/5 Def - 6/1 63 Lettermen
TEAM THEME:
DOWN ON THE FARM
While Stanford returns 9 starters on offense, the
fact of the matter is they lost players to 4 NFL defections, plus 16 players
from the 2-deep are gone. Only seven FBS schools lost more starters from
last year's depth charts, and only four schools saw more players leave early
for the NFL. Nonetheless, the Cardinal have captured four Pac-12 championship
games since 2012 under David Shaw. The big story is star RB Bryce Love's
decision to return to Stanford rather than leaving early for the NFL. The
Heisman Trophy hopeful fuels a resurgence of offensive starters back for the
Cardinal - sans OC Mike Bloomgren, who leaves to take over the head coaching
duties at Rice. QB K.J. Costello also returns after a strong second half last
year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 405 YPG allowed by
Stanford last season was the most ever under HC David Shaw.
PLAY ON: vs. USC (9/8)
UCLA
Off - 5/2 Def -
7/2 38 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: NEXT MAN UP
On the 20th anniversary of its last Pac-12
conference championship, the UCLA brass has turned its football fortunes over
to Chip Kelly, the former NFL and Oregon head coach, where he went 46-7 with
three conference titles and an appearance in the BCS championship game with the
Ducks. The biggest task at hand is filling the shoes set by record-setting QB
Josh Rosen. Rest assured, Kelly will find his man. The other concern is
patching a rush defense that was the worst for a Power 5 program in nearly 20
years. Remember this on your way out: since 1965 UCLA has had six consecutive
non-winning seasons. They are 50-22-1 SU the following year while producing a
winning record every season. Just sayin'.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 28-1 SU
against sub .800 college football opponents.
PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona State (11/10)
USC
Off
- 7/4 Def - 7/1
52 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: GREEN EGGS AND SAM
True freshman QB J.T. Daniels is expected to be
behind center for the defending Pac-12 champion Trojans this season, replacing
redshirt sophomore Sam Darnold, who left for the NFL. The only other true
freshman signal-caller to start for USC was Matt Barkley who, like Daniels,
hailed from Mater Dei High School in California. Note: Daniels carried a 4.16
Grade Average and graduated after only three years in high school. Last year's
11-win campaign was especially impressive considering USC did not have a bye
week. The Trojans can thank a Red Zone Defense that ranked No. 4 in the
nation, but they were also the 5th worst team the nation in Most Penalties last
season. It's a good thing that head coach Clay Helton has out-recruited every
team in the conference. He loses a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,500-yard rusher and a
1,100-yard receiver. Ouch.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: USC is 16-0 SU in the Coliseum
under head coach Clay Helton.
PLAY AGAINST: at UCLA (11/17)
UTAH Off
- *8/4 Def - 6/1 55
Lettermen
TEAM THEME: WINNINGHAM U
After appearing in every College Football Playoff
ranking since its inception in 2014, the Utes extended the streak through the
first three weeks in 2017 before finally bowing out. It's a testament to head
coach Kyle Whittingham, the holder of the highest bowl winning percentage
(.917, 11-1) of any coach in NCAA history. It was confirmed in the NFL draft
this season when Utah led the Pac-12 with eight selections, tying for the
third-most in the country. QB Tyler Huntley and a handful of receiving targets
are back in 2018, as well as four of last year's five starting offensive
linemen. They make up 18 full-or-part time starters from last season's
bowl-winning squad. Finally, former head coach Gary Andersen is also back as a
DL coach.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Kyle Whittingham is
17-4 SU against the other four Power Five conferences.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Arizona (10/12)
WASHINGTON Off
- *8/4 Def -
9/1 55 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: LOCKED AND LOADED
Chris Petersen planted the seeds for what may the
most talented squad he'll have in his tenure at Washington. It all started in
2015 when his "young as hell" Huskies were force-fed with plenty of playing
time. All of those underclassmen are now upper classmen and as a result, U-Dub
welcomes a bevy of returning starters for the 2018 season. At the helm is
4th-year senior starting QB Jake Browning, who has tossed for a school record
9,104 yards while completing over 64% of his pass attempts and accounting for
90 touchdowns. In addition, 3-years starting RB Myles Gaskin is back with 4,055
rushing yards and 49 TDs. Add a fearsome front seven on defense and the Huskies
appear headed to the playoffs once again this season - especially going up
against the 4th easiest schedule of all Power 5 schools in 2018 with foes going
73-80 (.477) last season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chris Petersen's .816
winning percentage is the 2nd highest among all active head coaches with
at least 13 years of experience.
PLAY ON: vs. Arizona State (9/22)
WASHINGTON STATE Off - 4/2 Def - 6/1 41 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: MAKING THE BEST OF A LOUSY SITUATION
The tragic suicide of heir-apparent backup QB
Tyler Hilinski in January left fractured hearts and souls in the Washington
State program. He was scheduled to fill the shoes of 4-year starting QB Luke
Falk, who left with a jaw-dropping 14,881 passing yards on 68.3% completions
and 119 TDs. In addition WSU's top two WRs have transferred out of the program.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Cougars lose Hercules Mata'afa, who led
the Pac-12 in sacks and tackles for a loss last season. Making matters worse,
the OL ranked No. 126 in sacks allowed last season. Meanwhile, former Minnesota
head coach Tracy Claeys is the new defensive coordinator. He reunites with
Cougar defensive line coach Jeff Phelps, who coached alongside Claeys at
Minnesota from 2011-16.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cougars are 10-1 ATS as
conference road dogs under Mike Leach vs. winning foes off a SUATS win.
PLAY ON: vs. California (11/3)
Be sure to check back here
next week for Marc's 2018 SEC Football Preview!
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