Gimme 5
The SEC features 5 first-year new
head coaches for the 2018 season. In fact that number actually
reaches 6 if you include Ole Miss mentor Matt Luke, who is back after taking
the reins on an interim basis last season following the Hugh Freeze fiasco.
Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M) leads the run with a $75 million dollar contract.
In addition, Joe Moorhead (Mississippi State), Chad Morris (Arkansas), Dan
Mullen (Florida) and Jeremy Pruitt (Tennessee) complete the cast.
Fast Facts
Alabama has scored more touchdowns
than any team in the SEC only once under Nick Saban's tenure ... The Crimson
Tide is the only FBS school to make it to all four College Football playoffs
... Despite an average drop of 1,409 fans in 2017, the SEC has led the FBS in
average attendance every year since 1998. It was the largest drop since 1983
... Only one time since 2007 has Alabama or Auburn failed to win the SEC West
division (LSU in 2011).
12th Man Tradition
In case you didn't know, the 12th
Man Tradition at Texas A&M started in 1922 when a person in the stands (a
basketball player who had played some football) was called down to the bench
and asked to suit up on the sideline because of the toll injuries had taken on
the tea, From that time on, A&M students stand to show loyalty and a
readiness to help the team if needed. And know you know the rest of the story.
Note: Team write-ups are
excerpts from the 2018 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale at
newsstands nationwide. The numbers following each team name represents the
amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of
returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
ALABAMA Off
- *7/4 Def - 3/2 52 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: ALABAMA SHAKES
Oh oh.
This could get downright ugly. Tide QB Jalen Hurts won the SEC Offensive
Player of the Year award as a freshman in 2016, and then threw for 2,081 yards,
17 touchdowns and one interception before he was benched in favor of freshman
QB Tua Tagovailoa in the second half of the national championship game against
Georgia. Tagovailoa led the Tide to a come-from-behind win and the rest is
history. Suddenly, Nick Saban has a two-headed QB situation - and that's
generally not a good thing. And then there's the fact that the Tide was the 3rd
hardest-hit team in the offseason with 5 NFL defections, 14 returning starters
and 16 players from the 2-deep gone, with the wide receiving corps hurt the
most. Then again, Bama's 24.4 scoring differential last season was second-best
in the nation to Penn State (24.6).
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Nick Saban is an incredible 125-14 at Alabama since 2008, including
70-10 in SEC games.
PLAY
AGAINST: as a favorite at LSU (11/3)
ARKANSAS
Off - 9/4 Def -
8/2 59 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: NEW-LOOK PIGS
After
losing more games than they won (29-34) behind Bret Bielema, Arkansas decided a
new look was needed. One of only two Power 5 schools (out of 13 openings) to
hire a Group of 5 head coach in the offseason, the Hogs welcome new head coach
Chad Morris, former boss at SMU and top assistant with Clemson. He brings a new
playbook with his modified spread offense, along with John Chavis, former LSU
defensive coordinator, who will implement the third different defensive scheme
for the Hogs in as many years. The offense returns 4 starting linemen who
allowed 35 sacks last season. They will be expected to improve while adapting
to Morris' new offense. The jury is still out.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Hogs have played UNDER their season win total in four of the last
five seasons.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. Mississippi (10/13) - *KEY if favored
AUBURN Off
- *6/1 Def - 7/3 58 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: AIRING IT OUT, PART 2
When QB
Jarrett Stidham transferred in as a former 5-star recruit from Texas A&M,
the Tigers would have been ecstatic knowing he would throw for 3,158 yards and
18 TDs, while defeating Alabama and winning the SEC West division title. Safe
to say they were euphoric after checking both boxes last year. So what do they
do for an encore? For openers, 'Air' Stidham is back but he'll be operating
without RBs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway. In addition, four senior
starting OL have departed. Thus, replicating last year's success will be
difficult. But before bailing out entirely on the new-look Tigers, keep this in
mind: Over the last two regular season campaigns, the SU stats winner is 25-1
in Tigers' games. Keep in mind, though, that the Tigers have suffered at least
four losses each of the last four years.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 33-1 SU at home in non-conference games since
2007.
PASS
FLORIDA Off - *10/5 Def -
9/3 53 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: MISSION BBQ
New head
coach Dan Mullen has handed the keys to the UF offense over to quarterbacks coach
Brian Johnson, who is commissioned with igniting an offense that has been MIA
since Tim Tebow's days. The Gators' offense has not been ranked inside
the Top 10 in the SEC since 2009 when Tebow was behind center. Florida finished
13th out of 14 SEC teams last season, using three different QBs. Johnson
insists redshirt sophomore QB Feleipe Franks' offseason maturation has gone
from the "class to the grass" and is ready for a breakout campaign. He's being
pressed by QB Kyle Trask. After last season's red-faced 4-win effort, the
Gators are a certified 'mission team' in 2018. And in payback mode against no
less than five foes, expect Mullen to turn up the flames.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Florida's 10 assistant coaches will earn $4.74 million this season,
and $5.4 million in 2019.
PLAY ON:
at Florida State (11/24)
GEORGIA
Off
- *8/4 Def - 5/2 53
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: SMART-SIZED
After
winning the SEC championship and then suffering a heartbreaking loss in the
College Football Playoff title game, the Bulldogs are a team on everyone's
radar this season. Before the schedule starts, however, Kirby Smart will be
tasked with replacing 17 scholarship seniors, including seven senior starters
on defense and two juniors that left early for the NFL draft (read: Roquan
Smith, the SEC Defensive Player of the Year). In fact, only three other FBS
teams suffered a deeper degree of player losses than the Dawgs, with a total of
14 returning starters and 16 players from the 2-deep gone. The good news is QB
Jake Fromm's 24 TDs and 160.1 ranking was tops among FBS freshmen last year.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: A total of 50 freshmen have played for the Bulldogs over the past
three seasons.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. Florida (10/27)
KENTUCKY
Off -
8/4 Def - 10/3 47 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: TOP CATS
The Mark
Stoops effect is taking hold. In 2016 and '17, UK posted consecutive 7-win
seasons, along with 4-4 records in the SEC. It's the first time the Wildcats have
won seven games and finished at least .500 in the league in consecutive seasons
in 40 years. Inside those numbers is an 8-4 record in games decided by 7 points
or less. The key to the success has been a recruiting effort that has landed
Kentucky in the Top 50 each year under Stoops. And with it all, the Wildcats
are now playing in a $120 million renovated field in front of throngs of rabid
fans. It's like they say around these parts these days - on game day,
Kroger Field often becomes the third-largest city in Kentucky. With the
Wildcats starting a first-year quarterback in 2018, look for RB Benny Snell -
who owns consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, to challenge for the league's
rushing title.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Kentucky is 0-8 ATS in games following an ATS win of 20 or more
points under Stoops.
PLAY
AGAINST: at Tennessee (11/10)
LSU Off
- 5/3 Def - 5/1 47 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: ORGER GONE
Now
we're going to find out what Ed Orgeron is all about as a head coach. According
to Fansided.com, from the Big Hit List of
player defections, LSU's number one cheerleader ranks #1 overall, losing 14
returning starters and 18 players from the 2-deep gone, including 6 NFL
defections. In fact, only Colorado State (15) must replace more total starters
than the Tigers, and only Navy (21) and UTSA (20) lost more seniors from their
two-deep depth charts. After ranking 105th last year and dead last in 2016
in 4th down conversion percentage, and operating behind his third new OC is as
many years, we're guessing the Big O finds himself back in the hot seat next
season. He'll need a big year from new QB Joe Burrow, an Ohio State transfer.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Ed Orgeron is 5-20 SU as a head coach against winning SEC foes in
his career.
PASS
MISSISSIPPI
Off - 8/4 Def -
7/2 56 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: BORN A REBEL
Matt
Luke has ties to the Ole Miss program spanning three generations. A 4-year
starting center with the Rebels, Luke was thrown into the fray at the start of
the season last year following the Hugh Freeze scandal. And had the Rebs not
been on probation, they would have earned a bowl bid, thanks to wins in 3 of
their final four games of the season. The problem this year, though, is Ole
Miss must replace the most players from last year's 2-deep roster than any team
in the nation, including star QB Shea Patterson, who transferred out to
Michigan. Fortunately, Luke recruited a Top 25 class in February, and over 38%
of all starts last were by underclassmen.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Ole Miss is 25-2 SU and 21-6 ATS as a favorite in lined games
against non-conference foes.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. Mississippi State (11/22) - *KEY as a favorite
MISSISSIPPI STATE Off - *9/4 Def
-8/4 49 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: WE WANT MO
The Dan
Mullen era at MSU ends, and the start of the Joe Moorhead era begins. A
former head coach at Fordham where he inherited a 1-10 program - and proceeded
to go 38-13 during his tenure the next four years - Joe Mo was the OC at Penn
State the past two seasons and is one of the best offensive minds in the
country. Before Moorhead, PSU averaged 342 yards and 22 points per game the
previous two seasons. The Lions improved to 446.5 yards and 39.5 points per
game when he left. Returning star dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald has tossed for
4,205 yards and 36 TDs the last two seasons. WRs A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf are
the league's top receiving tandem and should surpass 20 TDs this season (Brown
is the SEC's top returning wideout). Despite a schedule filled with landmines,
watch those numbers blow up this season.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Bulldog defense improved 11 points and 153 YPG last season.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. Louisiana Tech (11/3)
MISSOURI
Off
- *9/5 Def - 7/1 51 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: TIGER BY THE TAIL
In two
short seasons under head coach Barry Odom the Tigers have flexed their muscle,
averaging over 30 points and 500-plus yards both years. This from a squad he
inherited that owned a powder-puff offense that averaged 14 points and 281
yards. After a miserable 1-5 start to the season last year, the Tigers closed
with six straight wins while scoring an average 51.3 points per games, vaulting
them to their first bowl game in four years. It should be noted, though, that
Mizzou went 7-0 against teams with losing records or opponents from the FCS and
0-6 against bowl teams. New OC Derek Dooley welcomes back senior QB Drew Lock,
who led the FBS with 44 TD passes last season and is projected as possibly the
first quarterback to be selected in this year's NFL draft. If the defense
improves at the same pace this year as last, this team could challenge for the
top spot in the SEC East - provided, of course, that they can take down
bowl-caliber opposition.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 33-8 SU and 26-11 ATS the last five years in games
they manage to outgain their opponent.
PLAY ON:
vs. Kentucky (10/27)
SOUTH CAROLINA Off
- *8/3 Def - 6/4 55 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: ALL GAS, NO BRAKES
On the
heels of a 9-win season in Will Muschamp's second year at the helm, the mantra
in 2018 is "All Gas, No Brakes". Buoyed by a relatively small graduation class,
the Gamecocks welcome a 109-man roster - 18 more than last season. The offense
is cocked-and-loaded, returning 100% of its passing yards, 98% of its rushing
yards, and 80% of its receiving yards. Plus, electric senior WR Deebo Samuels
returns after scoring 6 TDs in just 3 games before suffering a season-ending
injury. The defense allowed just 20.7 PPG last year, its best effort since
2012. It's worth noting that 11 players started every game last
season. Five of them are back in 2018. Yes, the 'Cocks are fueled up and
ready to roll.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: Seventy-percent of USC's roster was composed of underclassmen last
season.
PLAY ON:
at Kentucky (9/29)
TENNESSEE
Off - *6/2 Def - 7/3 47
Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: ROCKY FLOP
Behind
the nation's No. 118 red zone defense, and the first 8-loss and winless SEC
season in school history, Butch Jones' fate was all but sealed. Enter new head
coach Jeremy Pruitt, former defensive coordinator at Alabama, Georgia and
Florida State, who has coached 41 NFL draft picks. Best of all 4 seniors with
lots of playing experience anchor the defensive line. And after last year's
goose egg at home in SEC play, we're certain Pruitt is reminded of Rocky Top's
463-128-17 all-time mark at Neyland Stadium. Oh yeah: since 1913 the Vols have
endured 10 seasons in which they failed to win 5 games. They went 63-24-10 in
follow up seasons, with nary a losing year. Expect Pruitt's debut to be a
smashing success.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Vols are 7-0 SU on neutral fields since 2012. They have not
played a game in North Carolina in 57 years, since 1961.
PLAY ON:
as a dog vs. Florida (9/22)
TEXAS A&M Off - *8/4 Def -
8/2 52 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: NEW MATH
Hmm.
After a 7-6 season, former A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin was dropkicked in
favor of Jimbo Fisher, who enters off an identical 7-6 campaign at Florida
State. Nonetheless, Fisher assumes the reins in College Station after a
celebrated 8-year tenure with the Seminoles in which he won a BSC Championship,
3 ACC conference championships and 4 AP Poll Top 10 finishes. Through it all he
brings an 83-23-career ledger - as opposed to Sumlin's 87-43-career log. In
addition, new OC Darrell Dickey comes over from Memphis (No. 4 offense last
season). Meanwhile, it's worth noting that Aggie freshmen made 20.6% of all
starts last season for A&M. Only four teams started more. No matter how you
add it up, this looks to be a lateral move.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Aggies are 1-10-1 ATS as home in games following an ATS loss.
PASS
VANDERBILT Off
- *7/5 Def - 4/1 47 Lettermen
TEAM
THEME: MASON JARRED
Knowing
that Vanderbilt owns 23 losing seasons the last 26 years, it's safe to say that
head coach Derek Mason is officially on the hot seat at Vanderbilt. Averaging
just 4.5 wins in four seasons on the sidelines, without a winning record in any
campaign, Mason went on the offensive in the offseason when he hired four new
coaches. Also looking to save Mason's hide is senior QB Kyle Shurmer, who broke
Vandy's single-season record with 26 TD passes, and needs 3,163 passing yards
and 20 touchdown passes to move ahead of Jay Cutler as the school's all-time
passing leader in each category. The departure of all-time leading rusher Ralph
Webb is not good news - not when you're facing 9 bowl teams.
STAT YOU
WILL LIKE: The Commodores are 0-17 SU and 2-15 ATS in Game Six of the season
the last 17 years.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. South Carolina (9/22)
Be sure to check back here next week
for Marc's 2018 Sun Belt Conference Football Preview!
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