It's time to kick off a
new football season! College football begins September 1st, so here's a look at
the top teams, starting with my top 21-40.
40. Texas: Coach Charlie
Strong could use a bounce back season after going 5-7. He needs to get the
offense out of the Stone Age and brings in OC Sterlin Gilbert, who worked under
Art Briles at Baylor. There are plenty of quarterbacks in the mix,
working behind an offensive line with four returning starters, plus sophomore
RB Chris Warren (470 yds, 6.6 ypc).
It's
remarkable how far the Texas defense fell off the map last season despite
plenty of talent. It's a young defensive line but there is ample talent with
sophomore LB Malik Jefferson and DE Charles Omenihu. They open with a big
revenge game against Notre Dame (38-3 loss) and totals' bettors take note: The
Longhorns are on a 24-14 run under the total.
39. Temple: The Owls won
10 games last fall and return seven starters on both sides of the ball. Senior
QB P.J. Walker (19 TDs, 8 INTs) and RB Jahad Thomas (1,262 yds) anchor the
offense, while the defense allowed 16 ppg in upsets of Penn State, Cincy, East
Carolina and Memphis. They lost just 24-20 to Notre Dame as a +11 dog and are
on a 9-5 run under the total.
38. Texas Tech: They won'
stop anybody but the Red Raiders will be in most games with this pass-happy
attack. Junior QB Patrick Mahomes (36 TDs, 15 INTs, 4,653 yards) leads an
offense that averaged 45 points and 388.2 yards passing, both second in the
nation. The defense, however, surrendered 42.6 ppg, getting run over on the
ground. Seven newcomers can help the defense, along with sophomore DT Breiden
Fehoko, who was Honorable Mention as an All-Big 12 defensive tackle. T-Tech is
on a 26-14 run over the total.
37. Boise State: No
slowing down the Broncos, who won 9 games and return 9 starters on offense, 5
on D. The offense has sophomore QB Brett Rypien (20 TDs, 8 INTs), a balanced
attack with junior RB Jeremy Nichols (1,337 yds, 5.6 ypc) and senior WR Tom
Sperbeck (1,412 yds). Adding JUCO WR Cedrick Wilson makes them even
better. This offense finished 15th in the nation with over 500 yards per game.
The defense struggled at times against mobile QBs, but has a strong LB corps
anchored by Tanner Vallejo.
36. Auburn: Expectations
have dropped for the Tigers under Coach Gus Malzahn and that could be a plus. 6
starters return on both sides of the line. There's a QB battle between senior
Jeremy Johnson (10 TDs, 7 INTs) and soph QB Sean White. The ground game should
improve with three O-line starters back, plus senior RB Jovon Robinson (639
yds, 5.5 ypc).
The defense
has a new look with DC Kevin Steele, who impressed at LSU. The line returns DE
Carl Lawson, and DTs Dontavius Russell and Montravius Adams. Can they also
reverse an 8-16 spread run?
35. BYU: The Cougars
have Kalani Sitake taking over as head coach, a former alum. Dual-threat senior
QB Taysom Hill (8 TDs, 4 INTs the last two years) decided to come back after an
injury-marred campaign and will battle sophomore QB Tanner Mangum (23 TDs, 10
INTs). RB Jamaal Williams skipped last season but is back, a three-year
starter. This team upset Boise and Nebraska, and lost to UCLA (24-23) as a +16
dog. The 2016 schedule is tough, opening with Arizona, a Week 2 showdown against
Utah (a 35-28 loss) and a Week 3 revenge game with UCLA. BYU is on an 8-5 ATS
run.
34. Washington State:
Mike Leach has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense, off a 9-4 SU/10-3 ATS
campaign. The offense led the nation in passing with 389.2 yards per game and
returns junior QB Luke Falk (38 TDs, 8 INTs, 4,561 yards). Senior WRs Gabe
Marks ( 1,192 yards) and River Cracraft (615 yds) are back. The defense
improved significantly under Alex Grinch and return soph LB Hercules Mata'afa,
strong as a freshman. Their revenge game is the Apple Cup, after hosting (and
losing) to rival Washington, 45-10.
33. Nebraska: Mike Riley
brought in a pro-style attack and finished strong (3-1 SU/ATS). That included a
bowl win over UCLA as a +5 dog (37-29). The offense averaged 32.5 points and
returns senior QB Tommy Armstrong (22 TDs, 16 INTs), plus senior RB Terrell
Newby (765 yards) and veteran wide outs. The defense returns 7 starters, led by
senior Greg McMullen up front, but the secondary allowed 33 points to BYU, 55
to Purdue, 38 to MSU and 28 to Iowa. Nebraska is 24-15 SU/24-13 ATS on the
road.
32. San Diego State:
Rocky Long's team dazzled during an 11-3 campaign, carrying a 10-0 SU, 8-1-1
run into the new season. 8 starters are back on defense, 7 on offense.
Long is a proponent of a punishing ground game and a hard hitting
defense. They had a pair of 1,000 yard running backs and senior RB Donnel
Pumphrey (1,653 yds, 5.4 ypc) returns, taking the heat off of sophomore
QB Christian Chapman (436 yards). It will be a ball control attack again
as this defense is outstanding at linebacker and in the secondary. 8 starters
are back on defense, 7 on offense. They lost to Cal (35-7) and Penn State
(37-21), with a rematch against the Golden Bears in Week 2.
31. Mississippi State:
Off a 9-4 season the Bulldogs and Dan Mullen return 7 on both sides of the
line. There is a QB battle between sophomore Nick Fitzgerald (3 TDs, 0 INTs)
and Elija Staley. There are plenty of experienced targets with senior WR
Fred Ross (1,007 yards) and Fred Brown (412). The defense was strong (22.8 ppg)
but has a new coordinator in Peter Sirmon (USC). Week 3 is a killer at LSU, and
they play four of five away from Sept. 17 to Oct. 22. MSU is on a 27-21-1 run
under the total.
30. Utah: Kyle
Whittingham's team won 10 games and returns 7 on both sides of the line. He
likes a balanced attack and it will be again working in new QBs junior Brandon
Cox and junior college transfer Troy Williams (31 TDs, 4 picks at Santa Monica
College). Four offensive linemen return, anchored by star senior OT J.J.
Dielman, blocking for senior RB Joe Williams, a highly heralded JC transfer.
The defense allowed 21.8 ppg and returns defensive tackle Lowell
Lotulelei. Some linebackers are new but there is talent and depth. The Utes are
on a 23-16 run under the total.
29. North Carolina: The
Tar Heels were a pass-happy machine averaging over 40 points per game going
11-3. Junior QB Mitch Trubisky (6 TDs, 0 INTs, 555 yds) gets the full time nod.
He is surrounded by returning talent, including junior RB Elijah Hood (1,463
yds, 6.7 ypc), senior WR Mack Hollins (745) and 4 offensive line starters. Gene
Chizak did a terrific job revamping the defense. They gave Clemson a go (45-37
loss) and miss the Tigers in 2016. The bad news: UNC opens against Georgia and
has to play at Florida State (Oct. 1). No surprise they carry an 8-3 run over
the total into the new season.
28. Houston: The Cougars
were an offensive juggernaut in 2015 and return 7 on offense, 5 on defense.
They lost only one game last year and upset Florida State in a bowl (38-24).
Senior QB Greg Ward (17 TDs, 6 INTs) is a dynamic runner who baffled
defenses for 1,108 yards rushing and 21 TDs. A pair of newcomers will add to
the attack in RB Duke Catalon and WR RaSheed Samples. The defense has some
concerns in the secondary, losing everybody, but returns LB Steve Taylor (10
sacks). Their biggest challenge is the opener against Oklahoma.
27. Washington:
Chris Peterson begins Year 3 and has a strong all-around team with 9 back
on offense, 7 on D. Sophomore QB Jake Browning (16 TDs, 10 INTs) was good
as a freshman. Four offensive line starters return for sophomore TB Myles
Gaskin (1,302 yds, 5.7 ypc). Junior WR John Ross is back from a knee injury,
sitting out last year.
The defense
impressed allowing 17.8 ppg (12th in the nation), ranked No. 1 in the Pac-12 in
scoring defense and yard per play. The secondary is led by a pair of first-team
All-Pac-12 stars in safety Budda Baker and cornerback Sidney Jones.
Getting Stanford and USC at home is a plus, with tough road games at Oregon and
Utah. Washington is on an 18-8-1 run under the total.
26. Louisville: Head
Coach Bobby Petrino has 18 returning starters. He is building the offense around
sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson (12 TDs, 8 INTs), who ran for 960 yards.
There is work to do on the offensive line that surrendered 44 sacks as
rushers averaged only 3.5 yards.
The defense is
loaded behind linebackers Devonte Fields and Keith Kelsey, plus DT DeAngelo
Brown. It will be even better if they can get LB Trevon Young (8.5 sacks)
healthy after a major injury in the bowl. The Cardinals have been
dangerous as a dog, winning at Notre Dame (31-28) as +3 dog and losing 23-17 at
Clemson as a +9 two years ago, playing Auburn tough in the 2015 opener (31-24)
and upsetting NC State (20-13) on the road.
25. Arkansas: Bret
Bielema's razorbacks have been overachieving, on an 18-7 ATS run, as well as
15-10-1 under the total. Junior QB Austin Allen (1 TDs, 0 INTs) and senior RB
Kody Walker (394 yards, 4.4 ypc) step in for this balanced attack. They
like a two tight end system and return senior TE Jeremy Sprinkle (389) along
with 3 of the top 5 receivers. The defense slid but return nine starters.
The D-line should be strong behind LB Dre Greenlaw, DT Tawiwan Johnson and an
excellent LB corps. The key will be improving a secondary that was last
in the SEC at defending the pass.
24. USC: Offensive
coordinator Clay Helton moves to head coach and has 10 starters back on
offense, 5 on D. The lone loss on offense, though, was the QB, so junior Max
Browne (113 yds) steps in. The top backs return in senior Justin Davis (902
yds) and soph Ron Jones (987). Clancy Pendergast returns as defensive
coordinator, pushing for an attacking-style while adding a 5-2 scheme from a
3-4. The secondary returns all four, but the D-line is young. Good luck, coach,
in the opener vs. Bama (Arlington, TX).
23. Florida: Jim
McElwain did a great job in Year 1 with limited offensive talent. there is a QB
battle between sophomore Luke Del Rio, Treon Harris (9 TDs, 6 INTs) and
incoming freshmen Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask. It should be a safe, ball
control attack and the Gators have a dynamic, athletic tight end duo in DeAndre
Goolsby and C'yontai Lewis.
There are no
concerns with the defense, however, sixth in the nation in yards, 8th in
points. LB Jarrad Davis bypassed the NFL to come back and there is star power
with DEs Bryan Cox Jr. and Caleb Brantley. They will be 3-0 before heading to
Tennessee (Sept. 24) for a big SEC showdown.
22. Wisconsin:
Paul Chryst begins his second year in Madison with seven starters back on
both sides of the line. They have a QB battle between junior Bart Houston (3
TDs, 2 INTs) and soph Alex Hornibrook and the ground attack went from #4
in the nation to #97. But the defense leads the way, tops in the nation
in points allowed last fall (13.3 ppg) and returns LBs Chris Orr and T.J.
Edwards, plus junior DE T.J. Watt. The schedule is the toughest in the Big 10,
so will they add to their 7-3 run under the total?
21. Georgia: The
Bulldogs are off a 10-3 SU/6-7 ATS campaign but that wasn't good enough for
Mark Richt to keep his job. New coach Kirby Smart is in, the former defensive
coordinator at Alabama. There are 8 starters back on offense, 6 on a defense.
Senior QBs Greyson Lambert (12 TDs, 2 INTs) and Brice Ramsey (1 TDs, 2 INTs)
are back, but freshman Jacob Eason was the No. 1 pocket-passer in nation.
Junior RB
Nick Chubb (747 yds, 8.1 ypc) is recovering from an injury, while junior Sony
Michel (1,161 yards, 5.3 ypc) is strong, too. New DC Mel Tucker (also from
Bama) is working with a young defensive line. Georgia is 54-23 SU/40-36 ATS on
the road.
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