The times are a changing...
The NFC has long been the stepchild conference in the NFL ... until lately.
Looking back, since 1990 the AFC holds a 757-712-3 SU and 722-698-52 ATS edge over the NFC in head-to-head non-conference competition. Over the last three years, however, the NFC is closing ground - fast.
That's confirmed by a flip-flopped 87-108 SU and 90-97-8 ATS mark by the AFC over the NFC in these contests over the last three seasons.
Initial thought was a lot of the recent numbers correlate to the recent uprising of the NFC West. Not true. The NFC South has actually held the upper hand the past three seasons in these non-conference clashes, sporting a division best 30-18 SU and 26-21-1 mark.
The NFC West is right behind the South at 30-20 SU and 28-19-3 ATS. Meanwhile, the slowly deteriorating NFC East brings up the rear at 22-27 SU and 21-27-1 ATS in these matchups.
Not over blown...
Speaking of non-conference tilts, the high-scoring NFL last season set a benchmark record in these games in the Over/Under totals.
Games involving these two opposite conference foes went 50-15 'OVER' the in head-to-head competition.
Games in which the Over/Under total was set at 41 or fewer points flew 'OVER' 14 of the 16 times.
DALLAS
TEAM THEME: TICK, TICK, TICK...
This much we know for sure about Jerry Jones. If he didn't have a strong ticker, he would be sitting alongside Tom Landry watching Cowboys games from afar. It wasn't bad enough for Jones to endure three consecutive 8-win seasons in which 15 of the 24 losses came by a touchdown or less - including an astonishing five losses by a field goal or less last year. JJ was also forced to live through the discomfiture of knowing a win in any of the last three season finales would have resulted in a playoff berth. Talk about taxing the heart. The question begs: how long will he keep head coach Jason Garrett on the sidelines? Dallas' woes are certainly not the fault of the offense. It's the defense that keeps Jones up at night popping nitroglycerin. Ranked dead-last in the league in 2013, crippling news came on the first day of the OTA's this spring when LB Sean Lee, the leader of the defense, injured his knee. Coupled with the departure of Pro Bowl DE Demarcus Ware to Denver, a cardiologist is standing by. With reliable TE Jason Witten back as one of Tony Romo's favorite targets, the QB's full recovery from surgery on a herniated disk is imperative. As bad as Romo's injury was, it's clearly better than the triple bypass Jones has avoided the last few years.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in Game Sixteen since 2000, the worst in the NFL.
NEW YORK GIANTS
TEAM THEME: 39 STEPS
When your season starts atop a banana peel, there is little else one can do other than to prepare for the fall. And fall they did. Mightily. A 0-6 start for the first time since 1976 put the Giants in a hole from which they were never able to recover. So how is it, you ask, that a team who improved its defense 50 YPG on the season missed out on the playoffs? Just ask QB Eli Manning, who endured a career-high 39 sacks last year, requiring ankle surgery in the off-season. Consequently, he tossed a league-high 27 INT's while finishing the season with a career-low 69.4 QB Rating. The results were an offense that slipped 48 YPG. To help shore things up on the attack side, New York selected WR Odell Beckham (LSU) with its 1st-round pick in this year's draft. He'll certainly push Victor Cruz and recently re-acquired Mario Manningham for starting honors. On the defensive front, Tom Coughlin picked up Walter Thurmond from the Super Bowl champs and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from Denver, but will need a return to form from Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks in 2011). Rest assured, Eli was busy viewing plenty of film in the off-season. For what it's worth, don't offer up a viewing of Alfred Hitchcock's classic, 'The 39 Steps' to Manning anytime soon. He'll likely run for cover.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Giants are 1-6 ATS all-time as favorites vs. the AFC South.
PHILADELPHIA
TEAM THEME: SOMETHING SPECIAL IN THE AIR
As promised, the Eagles came with everything they had en route to winning 10 games in Chip Kelly's NFL debut last season. Aside from setting franchise records on offense for points, TD's and total yards, Philadelphia's questionable defense also managed to hold two foes (Chicago and Detroit) to season-low yards late in the season. Imagine what happens if continued improvement is met on both sides of the ball this year? First-round pick DE Marcus Smith was an outstanding pass rusher at Louisville, and should make the transition to LB in Kelly's 3-4 defense. The offense brings in WR's Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff (former Kelly pupil from Oregon), high picks in this year's draft for emerging QB Nick Foles - who lit up the airwaves with the top QB Rating in the league last year (119.2) on 29 TD's and 2 INT's. Along with the return of Jeremy Maclin, who missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL after posting three straight seasons of over 800 yards receiving, DeSean Jackson's departure should prove to be a moot point by season's end. Add in dynamic Darren Sproles for a change of pace in the backfield with superstar LeSean McCoy, and Kelly's offense should be more prolific than ever. When it comes to preparing a game plan, no coach in the league is more thorough than the frenetic Kelly. The man never tires.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 20-1 SU away versus either college conference or NFL division foes in his career.
WASHINGTON
TEAM THEME: RG YEAR III
Like the Browns, the Redskins cycle through head coaches like Lance Armstrong manufactures lies, with Jay Gruden the 9th new Washington coach since 1999. It's what happens when you've had only three winning seasons post 1999. And it's what happened to Mike Shanahan after going 24-40 in his tenure with Dan Snyder. Last year's drop-off (from 10 wins to 3) was dramatic, yet understandable. RGIII hit the sophomore wall before bowing out with another knee injury after 13 games - while the team coughed up 34 turnovers as opposed to 16 in 2012. A season-ending 8-game losing streak was the topper, especially given the fact they actually outgained foes 22 YPG in the process. No one works harder than Griffin, the 2012 Rookie Of The Year, who poured in many hours during the offseason to fine-tune his game. If Griffin is right, Gruden can expect the passing game to be back on track with newly acquired DeSean Jackson lining up opposite Pierre Garcon, and the return from injury of emerging TE Jordan Reed. The defense is led by Brian Orakpo at OLB, while Jason Hatcher comes over from Dallas to join Barry Cofield on the defensive line after recording 11 sacks last season for the Cowboys. Should it all come together, look for the Hogs to be sneaky-good in a tough-as-nails division in 2014.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Redskins last division title was in 1999.
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