2016 NFC Division Betting Preview

By: Marc Lawrence | Monday, August 22, 2016
NFL Helmet

2015 Year In Review

Listed among the highlights on the 2015 NFC ledger, last year saw...

  • A team from the NFC South (Carolina) win its division for a third straight season, only to fold like a cheap lawn chair in Super Bowl 50.
  • The Chip Kelly love affair in Philadelphia end in sudden divorce.
  • Officiating reach new levels of incompetence on the final play of the Detroit Lions-Seattle Seahawks game when a loose ball batted illegally out of the end zone was ruled a fumble and a touchback for Seattle.
  • The Dallas Cowboys enamored with embattled domestic abuse artist Greg Hardy, only to come their their senses and eventually release him.

Falling Asleep At The Wheel

Rested teams in the NFC have performed at a poor rate the last two seasons, going just 15-26 SU and 14-27 ATS overall, including the post season.

They were particularly disturbing as dogs (4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS) and when playing in games off a loss (7-15 SU and 6-16 ATS), while dogs off a loss are just 2-10 SUATS.

Furthermore, NFC underdogs with rest off a loss are a pitiful 0-7 SUATS in non-division battles.

Forewarned is forearmed.

Note: team write-ups are excerpts from the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale at newsstands nationwide and available on the Playbook App in the iTunes, Google Play, and Amazon stores.

 

DALLAS

TEAM THEME: BACK FROM THE DEAD

Last year at the Westgate SUPERBOOK seminar in Las Vegas, I spoke highly of the Dallas Cowboys and their chances in 2015.  In fact, I actually pegged them to make it to the Super Bowl. And, following season-opening victories over the Giants and the Eagles, things were looking good until Tony Romo's collarbone was pinned to the carpet in Philadelphia. Suddenly, with Butch Cassidy out and the Sundance Kid (Dez Bryant) going under the knife with foot surgery, the Cowboys more closely resembled Annie Oakley and Calamity Jane.  Romo was replaced by Brandon Weeden, who then gave way to Matt Cassel, and then finally on to Kellen Moore.  Together, the terrible triumvirate combined to go an abysmal 1-12 thereafter as the Cowboys were eventually laid to rest.  A new season starts in 2016 and with it Jason Garrett is anxious to erase the memory of his only losing season as an NFL head coach, with the only Dallas team to lose seven games more than it did the previous year.  This much we know for sure: based on the win-loss record of last year's opponents, the Cowboys (along with the Lions) will face the 4th softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 121-143 (.458). With Romo and Bryant back to full health and operating behind the best offensive line in the NFL, Marc could be singing their praises once again in Vegas this August.  Then again, for the Cowboys' sake, perhaps he shouldn't.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points under Jason Garrett.

PLAY ON: vs. NY Giants (9/11)

NEW YORK GIANTS

TEAM THEME: STAND AND DELIVER 

Like the good soldier that he is, commander-in-chief Tom Coughlin decided it was time to turn over the reins to heir apparent Ben McAdoo.  The two-time Super Bowl winner, long vilified and lauded at the same time, suffered the misfortune of commanding the worst defense in the league last year.  A $200M spend in free agency should help matters with DE Olivier Vernon, DT Damon Harrison and CB Janoris Jenkins leading the new charge.  With a healthy Jason-Pierre-Paul, and No. 1 draft pick CB Eli Apple (Ohio State) in the fold, hopefully the dyke has been repaired. Meanwhile, McAdoo - a former OC with the Packers - added WR Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma) to join Odell Beckham Jr. and unendingly injured Victor Cruz to the receiving corps. Should 6'6" TE Larry Donnell himself stay healthy, he provides QB Eli Manning a large go-to target in the red-zone. Manning rebounded from a horrendous 2013 season when he completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 4,410 yards, 30 TDs and 14 INTs and a 92.1 QB Rating in 2014.   He then followed that up with 62.6% completions for 4,436 yards, 35 TDs and 14 INTS in 2015. With Manning and OC Mike Sullivan now on the same page, Big Blue's offense should be able to stand and deliver in a wide-open NFC East division chase.  Especially when you consider the Giants will face the 2nd softest schedule in 2016, with foes a combined 120-144 (.455) last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Giants are 16-0 ATS as dogs of 5 or more points when playing off a win.

PLAY ON: vs. Philadelphia (11/6)

PHILADELPHIA

TEAM THEME: SPRING CLEANING

Moving a lot slower these days without former head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles are about to take on a different look in 2016. New head coach Doug Pederson will rely on offensive huddles and adjustments at the line of scrimmage, rather than sheer speed, to keep opposing defenses off-balance.  "We're taking a better approach this year," said OL Lane Johnson.  "You go so fast for so long, there's only so much your body can do before ultimately it's going to fail you."  Time will tell whether Pederson's style is more effective, but players certainly seem pleased by the changes. Fatefully, RB DeMarco Murray, LB Kiko Alonoso and CB Byron Maxwell - all acquired last season - were traded in a house-cleaning immediately after Kelly's departure. As luck would have it, former Oregon RB Kenjon Barner could be the starting tailback for the Eagles this season, especially with his receiving skills serving him well in Pederson's offense.  In another head-scratching move, the Eagles mortgaged the future in trading up to acquire QB Carson Wentz with the 2nd pick in this year's draft right after signing QB Sam Bradford to a $22M contract extension.  In soap opera fashion, Bradford then proceeded to dig himself a hole with fans in Philly when he demanded a trade immediately after Wentz was attained.  As long-time, iconic Philadelphia radio and television personality Howard Eskin said,  "The more things change, the more they stay the same in Philadelphia." Amen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Eagles will face opponents off their Bye Week in Games 6, 7 and 8 this season.

PLAY ON: vs. Atlanta (11/13)

WASHINGTON

TEAM THEME: LIVING HIGH OFF THE HOG

On the heels of only its 2nd playoff appearance in eight years, Washington was surely the surprise team in the NFL last season. After winning a total of seven games the previous two years, the Hogs rode a 9-win campaign to the NFC East championship for the first time since 1999, largely on the arm of QB Kirk Cousins. So what does Cousins do for an encore?  After running the last man (RG III) out of town, the pressure would appear to be off for Cousins.  But is that a good thing? Captain Kirk led the league in completion percentage (69.8%) while breaking the record for most passing yards by a Redskins quarterback.  His top target, TE Jordan Reed, also had a career year and was rewarded with a five-year, $50M extension.  Thus, in horse racing circles, the chance for a 'bounce' in 2016 looks strong. Should Cousins take a step backwards, the running game will likely be counted on, but the loss of former RB Alfred Morris certainly won't help a unit that dipped under 100 yards rushing per game last season for the first time since 2010.  The addition of Pro Bowl CB Josh Norman from Carolina bolsters a secondary that actually slipped last year.  With Washington taking on only one winning team in its first seven contests - as well as facing only one winning team as a visitor in 2016 - the schedule is paved with good intentions. But so is the road to hell.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Redskins are 3-9 SUATS in their history versus AFC North opponents, including 0-6 ATS as favorites of more than 2 points.

PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (11/20) - *KEY as a dog

NFC NORTH PREVIEW

CHICAGO

TEAM THEME: ONE OX, TWO OXEN - ONE FOX, TWO FOXEN

How does John Fox feel these days? After being unceremoniously dumped by Denver in 2014 after melding four playoff teams and a 49-22 overall win-loss record, he then sits back and watches the Broncos win Super Bowl 50. Talk about a pit at the bottom of your stomach.  Fortunately for Fox, a veteran head coach who has taken seven teams to the playoffs throughout his NFL career, he quickly found employment in Chicago where he immediately assembled a star-studded coaching staff that helped improve the Bears' numbers all around on both sides of the ball in 2014.  Unfortunately, a rash of injuries coupled with a peculiar 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS performance mark at home left the team just one game better (6-10) than they were the preceding season.  Playing on the road, though, is where the silver Fox is at his best, going 29-13 SU and 30-12 ATS in his career, including 14-4 SUATS from Game Twelve out.   Meanwhile, much maligned QB Jay Cutler enters off a career-best 92.3 passer rating last season.  How he performs this season without OC Adam Gase remains to be seen. Taking on the 2nd softest schedule in 2016 should help.  In closing, remember this: in John Fox's two other head coaching stops in the NFL, his teams improved from 16-18 in their first years to 27-10 in their second years. Beware of the Bears.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Bears head coach John Fox is 14-5 SU and 16-3 ATS on the division road off a SU win.

PLAY ON: at Minnesota (1/1) - *KEY Off a win

DETROIT

TEAM THEME: LIFE WITHOUT MEGATRON 

After being looked upon as a quarterback guru throughout his coaching career in the NFL, Jim Caldwell has managed to assuage many of the Matthew Stafford bashers the past two seasons - despite the fact Stafford has been sacked 89 times during Caldwell's tenure with the Lions.  This year, however, Detroit faces life without Megatron as future Hall of Fame WR Calvin Johnson has decided to call it quits. And therein lies the problem.  During his stellar nine-year career with Detroit, the six-time Pro Bowler twice led the league in receiving yards while establishing an all-time NFL record with 1,963 yards in a season. Johnson's 731 receptions and 11,619 yards will be almost impossible to replace. The acquisition of WR Marvin Jones (Cincinnati) will help but strangely the Lions shunned wide receivers in this year's draft, a move that may come back to haunt them.  Look for Detroit to rely more on the run in 2016 while taking pressure off Jones and his starting companion, Golden Tate.  New OC Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford's QB coach the past three seasons, will certainly be under the gun.  Try as they might, the Lions managed to close the season on a positive note last year, winning six of their final eight games after a 1-7 start. That's good news considering Detroit will take on the 3rd-softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 121-143 (.458) last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Detroit is 1-10 SU and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus AFC South opponents, including 0-4 SUATS home.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Chicago (12/11)

GREEN BAY

TEAM THEME: BY THE BOOK

So why is it, you wonder, that the Packers seem to annually field one of the NFL's deepest rosters? According to Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com, it's because "they never lose players they want to keep and perennially replenish their roster with useful draft picks."  It's a tried-and-true formula that has worked in Green Bay since GM Ted Thompson took over in 2005.  The proof, as they say, is in the pudding and the Pack has suffered only one losing season since while making the playoffs each of the last seven years (also won at least 10 games in six of those seasons). Last year we wrote that the offense was good.  Real good. But unfortunately with the loss of star WR Jordy Nelson - QB Aaron Rodgers' favorite target - right out of the gate, it was a tale of two seasons for the Packers.  They started 6-0 and carried that perfect record into the Bye Week, where they proceeded to lose four of the next five.  Back-to-back losses to end the season sent the Packers to Washington for the wild card round after failing to win the NFC North for the first time since 2010.  This season, with Nelson back in the lineup, Green Bay will face the softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 118-144 (.450).  With that, it's conceivable the Packers could be favored in every game this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Aaron Rodgers is 15-3 SUATS in division games off a spread loss.

PLAY ON: at Minnesota (9/18) - *KEY as a dog

MINNESOTA

TEAM THEME: BRIDGE TO SUCCESS

QB Teddy Bridgewater broke into the NFL by completing 64.4% of his passes for 14 TDs in his rookie year with Minnesota in 2014.  He upped the ante last season, completing 65.3% of his passes while tossing only nine interceptions.  As a result, the Vikings captured their first division crown in six years.  The job this year will be fending off former perennial champion Green Bay.  To do so, Minny must secure things in the secondary as Mike Zimmer's pass defenses have been super-soft, allowing 64 and 66% pass completions in his two seasons with the Vikes. Last year's No. 1 draft pick CB Trae Waynes and this year's No. 2 selection CB Mackensie Alexander should go a long way toward mending the unit. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota's offensive line has allowed 96 sacks in Zimmer's tenure.  For Bridgewater's sake, those numbers certainly need to improve. We're thinking the additions of OG Alex Boone (San Francisco) and OT Andre Smith (Cincinnati) will help immensely.  After losing WR Mike Wallace to the Baltimore Ravens, Teddy will be ready for new WR Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss), Minnesota's No. 1 choice in this year's draft. Many college football pundits feel Treadwell was the best receiver on the board.  Now, if they can keep 31-year old RB Adrian Peterson - the NFL's rushing leader last year - upright and switch-free, they could be playoff-bound once again in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last seventeen games in December.

PLAY AGAINST: at Chicago (10/31) 

NFC SOUTH PREVIEW

ATLANTA

TEAM THEME: NOT-SO-MIGHTY QUINN

A 5-0 start by Atlanta last year looked promising under new head coach Dan Quinn as his hire from Seattle looked to be the catch of the season. Unfortunately, a 1-7 run occurred thereafter, resulting in a disappointing 8-8 record by season's end.  Through it all, the Dirty Birds managed to improve their defense by 4 points and 51 yards per game in 2015. The Falcons made a huge pickup when they inked Pro Bowl C Alex Mack. His transition is made smoother with OC Kyle Shanahan having served as his coach in Cleveland.  They also cut aging 34-year old WR Roddy White, the team's all-time leader in receptions and passing yards.   In an attempt to fill White's shoes, they acquired former Cincinnati wideout Mohammed Sanu.  Meanwhile, QB Matt Ryan suffered through a down year last campaign when he tossed 16 picks while being sacked 30 times (his 89.0 quarterback rating was his lowest since 2009). RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman battled injuries but were highly effective when they suited up. Regrettably, the Falcons will face the league's most difficult schedule in 2016 with opponents a combined 153-120 (.560) last season.  Thus, a quick start against three losing foes is mandatory, especially with last year's two Super Bowl combatants, and Seattle, on deck thereafter. Ryan's 8-0 SUATS career mark in home openers serves as the stepping-stone.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams who finished last, or tied for last, have won the NFC South 11 of the last 13 years the next season.

PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/26) - *KEY

CAROLINA

TEAM THEME: NEWTON'S LAW 

Carolina has been playing a high level of outstanding football the last year and a half. A quick glance at their stat-logs since mid-November of 2014 confirms the notion as they are 22-3 SU, while having outyarded 20 of their last 25 opponents in the process.  Just to be clear, there is no one in the league that tops those numbers. And to help perpetuate the momentum, the Panthers actually face the easiest opponent's Strength of Schedule (see chart on page 22) this season based on this year's opponents' Super Bowls odds per the SuperBook at the Westgate in Las Vegas.  So why weren't we first in line in Vegas when Jay Kornegay posted this year's Super Bowl odds at the SuperBook? Simple.  Aside from being a popular public team this season the Panthers, who will be favored in every game this season but one (at Seattle), will also carry the burden of 'Super Bowl Loser' with them from start to finish in 2016.  And with QB Cam Newton capturing last season's MVP award behind a career-best 99.2 passer rating, we're applying plenty of repellent this season. Oh yea, for what it's worth: in over 600 games, Super Bowl Losers have managed to beat the spread only 48% of the time overall the following season.  In addition, only 4 Super Bowl Losers have managed to make it back to the big game the following season - and they went 0-4 SUATS in the big game. Ouch.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Panthers are 7-0 ATS at home versus .750 or greater opponents behind Cam Newton.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Atlanta (12/24)

NEW ORLEANS

TEAM THEME: REVOLVING DOOR

It was more of the same for the Saints in 2015.  Good offense. Lousy defense.  And with it came another 7-win season for the third time in the past four years.  The declining defense led to DC Rob Ryan's firing in mid-November but it was too little, too late at that point.  Many of the defensive issues were addressed in the offseason when New Orleans signed LBs James Laurinaitis and Craig Robertson, to go along with NT Nick Fairley. Snagging Sheldon Rankins with the No. 1 draft pick made current DC, and former Oakland Raiders head coach, Dennis Allen a happy camper.  And speaking of past head coaches, the Saints signed former Miami Dolphins interim coach Dan Campbell as its tight ends coach.  He will work with new TE Coby Fleener, a free agent from the Indianapolis Colts. Fleener replaces Ben Watson who bolted for Baltimore.  37-year old QB Drew Brees refuses to take a step backward as he threw for 5,365 yards while completing 66.4% of his passes to post a 95.8 QB Rating in 2015. If the Saints can stay alive until Thanksgiving, New Orleans will close out the campaign against only one team that owned a winning record last season in its final six contests. It could be a tall task, though, considering the Saints will face the 2nd most difficult schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 150-121 (.554).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Saints are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS all-time versus winless AFC West opponents.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (10/16) - *KEY as a dog

TAMPA BAY

TEAM THEME: TOOL TIME

Last year Buccaneers GM Jason Licht said, "We're not rebuilding... we're re-tooling." While it was easy to scoff at that statement, the fact of the matter is it appeared to be right on the money. Behind QB Jameis Winston, who starred in his rookie season, Tampa Bay tripled its win production when Winston cleared the air for over 4,000 yards and 22 TDs. Then, in a stunning announcement, the Bucs sent head coach Lovie Smith packing in favor of OC Dirk Koetter.  The feeling in the Tampa camp was that if they didn't elevate Koetter to head coach status, another team would. Koetter immediately brought ex-Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith in as defensive coordinator, and respected college football guru Todd Monken as his offensive coordinator.  The bottom line is after all the dust had settled, Tampa Bay made a major upgrade while getting younger in the process. The secondary got a makeover as well: CB Vernon Hargreaves was snapped up in the first round of the draft while Miami CB Brett Grimes was an excellent free agent pickup. DE Robert Ayers brings 9.5 sacks over from the Giants to pair with reliable DT Gerald McCoy. On the other side of the ball, RB Doug Martin got back on track with 1,400 rushing yards last season.  Now with a powerful draft under the Bucs' belt, it's tool time in Tampa these days.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:  Despite just 6 wins, the Bucs finished in the Top 10 in overall offense and defense last season.

PLAY ON: at Carolina (10/10)

 

NFC WEST PREVIEW

ARIZONA

TEAM THEME: BIRDS OF A FEATHER

Last season marked the first time since 1985 the Cardinals have enjoyed the benefit of three consecutive winning seasons.  That they have delighted in four winning seasons in a row only ONE TIME in their franchise history (1922-25) isn't the point.  The fact that they are under the direction of a head coach like Bruce Arians is.  He won us over in 2014 when he guided the Cards to the playoffs despite being outgained a massive 64 YPG on the season - with a 3rd string quarterback!  And then when we warned readers against backing his squad last year and he went out and obliterated 2014's effort by 3 additional wins while improving the offense and the defense by 94 and 35 YPG respectively, it's safe to say he has our full admiration. To corroborate our belief, consider that Arians is 33-5 SU and 30-6-2 ATS as an NFL head coach versus sub .600 opponents - including 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS last year. Simply put, it means the man beats those he's supposed to, thus putting his team into position to challenge for a playoff spot.  While Arizona will be living out of a suitcase down the stretch this season, they open the year with home games in five of their first 7 contests. Owning the fewest sacks (36) of all playoff teams last season, the addition of DT Robert Nkemdiche made a ton of sense.  And so too does backing the Redbirds in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arizona is 34-0 SU in its last 34 games when leading after 3 Quarters.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (10/30)

LOS ANGELES

TEAM THEME: CALIFORNIA HERE WE COME... AND GO

After 21 seasons playing under the Arch in St. Louis, the Rams are headed back to Los Angeles where they last called home in 1994.  The move comes at a cost, though, as the Rams will travel a total of 32,072 miles, which is more than the Browns, Bears, Packers and Ravens will travel combined in 2016 (30,948 miles). In fact, their one-way flight back from London to Los Angeles is more miles that the Steelers will travel the entire season (5,138 miles). L.A. is hoping star RB Todd Gurley and new golden boy QB Jared Goff can help lead them back to their glory days, but don't look for that to happen anytime soon. The team hasn't had a winning season since 2003, while averaging just 5.3 victories per season over the last 12 years.  The distraction of rumors of the franchise heading back west proved relevant when the Rams were outgained in each of their final 8 games over the course of the second half of the season last year.  As a result, Jeff Fisher's squad ended up as the only team in the loop that slipped in total yardage on both sides of the ball, despite somehow finding a way to somehow improve both SU and ATS on their record from 2014 to 2015.  All in all, not good news for a team that will face the 4th most difficult schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 148-121 (.550).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 36-59-1 SU since owner Stan Kroenke came aboard.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tampa Bay (9/25) - *KEY

SAN FRANCISCO

TEAM THEME: FOOL'S GOLD

Don't be fooled by Chip Kelly's hire.  There is a lot of work to be done in San Francisco and it won't happen overnight.  For a team filled with holes, and a franchise that went to the NFC title game every year from 2011-13, the last two years for the 49ers have been intolerable.  In the end, a 5-win season last year was not enough to save Jim Tomsula's one-and-done tenure in San Fran.  Say what you may about Kelly, the truth of the matter is he was able to post a 26-21 winning record in Philly without the luxury of a top-line quarterback.  And it's not like he'll have one here, either, with much maligned Colin Kaepernick battling Blaine Gabbert for the right to run his high-octane offense this year.  Little did Kelly realize when he took the job that the Niners, despite finishing in last place in the NFC West in 2015, would be taking on the 3rd most difficult schedule in the league this year, one that will likely find the Niners underdogs in every game they play in 2016.  For Frisco to have any chance at turning up the tempo and succeeding with this roster, it will need RB Carlos Hyde to operate at peak efficiency - in hopes of giving an unsuspecting defense as many needed blows as possible from an offense that doesn't figure to be on the field much at all.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 25-3 SU away versus either NFL division or college conference foes in his career.

Or -

The Niners are 10-1 ATS all-time as road dogs versus AFC East opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: at Chicago (12/4)

SEATTLE

TEAM THEME: READY TO RAIN

To their credit, after being Super Bowl Losers last season following Pete Carroll's disastrous call in Super Bowl XLIX, the Seahawks managed to find their way back to the postseason - only to lose a hard-fought 7-point decision to the Panthers at Carolina. Surprisingly, it was one of just 26 times in 108 games in which Seattle has managed to gain 400 yards behind Carroll. And with it the Seahawks' dominance in the NFC appears be eroding.  Fear not, though: Seattle's defense is still the best in the league, allowing the fewest points and second-fewest total yards in the loop last season. Losing LB Bruce Irvin is a big blow, as well as RB Marshawn Lynch and LT Russell Okung on offense.  Still, it's QB Russell Wilson that is the keeper of the keys. Completing 68% percent of his passes for 34 TDs and 8 INTS last season, Wilson especially shines in underdog roles where he is 11-1-1 ATS in his career when taking points from sub .900 opposition.  He's also 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in his career versus Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Interestingly, the Seahawks are 7-19 ATS all-time as favorites versus AFC East opponents. Given the fact that they will likely be favored in all but two of their games this season, it's understandable why, beast or no beast, Seattle is a leading contender to make it back to the Super Bowl.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Seahawks have either led, or were within one score, in their last 88 games.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (12/4) - *KEY

 

For more of Marc Lawrence, click here.

 
 
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