2018 AFC East preview
Buffalo
TEAM
THEME: IN ALLEN WE TRUST
After
earning their first playoff berth in 16 years last season, Buffalo was
obviously not satisfied. Not with QB Tyrod Taylor and not with an offense that
generated a mere 300 YPG, better than only three other teams. Thus, it became
their priority to land a potential franchise quarterback in this year's NFL
draft. After all, they had drafted 6 QBs since Jim Kelly, and none of the
previous six had a winning record. So when they traded up to select Josh Allen
with the 7th pick in the first round, they felt they finally had their man.
This despite the fact that Allen completed only 54% of his
passes in high school, and then 56% of his passes in college football before
leaving early for the NFL. The strong-armed hopeful will likely
take a seat to learn his trade behind recently acquired A.J. McCarron, who has
played in a total 12 NFL games in his career, going 2-2 in his four starts. A
strong draft also yielded LB Tremaine Edmunds, DT Harrison Phillips and CB
Taron Johnson, while free agent acquisitions CB Vontae Davis, DE Trent Murphy
and DT Star Lotuleli figure to shore up a soft stop-unit.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Buffalo
is 2-11 SU and 2-8-3 ATS away all-time versus NFC Central foes, including 0-7
SU and 0-6-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win.
PLAY
ON: vs. New England (10/29)
Miami
TEAM
THEME: ROTTEN FISH
The foul
odor blowing in from the shores of south Florida is the smell of bringing up
the rear going on in Miami these days. From the Dolphins to the Heat to the
Marlins, the stench of losing is stomach-turning. The Dolphins have made only
one postseason appearance since 2008, that in Adam Gase's first season with the
team two years ago. It was back to 6-10 last season when starting QB Ryan
Tannehill went down with a second ACL injury. After Hurricane Irma forced
postponement of their season opener, the Fish opened the season 4-2 before
being filleted with a 5-game losing streak. You can say playing 16 games
without a bye week did them in but the fact of the matter is they were dead in
the water long before the re-scheduling took place. The bottom line is Gase and
Tannehill each own a losing record, with the latter owing an 86.5 career passer
rating. Unloading their top talent (Ndamukong Suh, Jarvis Landry and Mike
Pouncey) signals a new era is underway. Here's hoping the menu is palatable.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Dolphins have incurred the 2nd-most penalties in the league during each of
Gase's first two seasons with the team
PLAY
ON: vs. Buffalo (12/2) - *KEY
New
England
TEAM
THEME: SUPER AMBIANCE
Question:
Is there such thing as a Super Bowl curse? Ask Tom Brady the same question and
his reply would be, "You'd better believe there is." That was confirmed last
season when for the first time in his 17-year NFL career Brady started and
ended the season with a loss. On top of that, Brady WAS 16-0 SU and 9-6-1
ATS in NFL playoff games in his career against teams that the Patriots did not
face during the regular season - until they met Philadelphia in last year's
Super Bowl. And to make matters worse, NFL teams WERE 38-0-1 SU in games when
they gained 600-plus yards until the Pats met the Eagles in SB LII in February.
With all of that bad karma in the rear view mirror, according to our NFL
Strength of Schedule based on opponent's projected season win totals, the Pats
(along with Houston) will take on the cushiest schedule in the circuit this
season. Go figure. Meanwhile, the return of WR Julian Edelman from the IR
should help steer them back to the playoffs this season provided, of course,
the dreaded Super Bowl Curse fails to raise its ugly head.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE:
New England's average defensive start of possession each of the last two years
has been inside the 25-yard line - the best in the NFL.
PLAY
ON: vs. Kansas City (10/14)
New
York Jets
TEAM
THEME: OUR LORD & SAVIOR
When USC
quarterback Sam Darnold (20-4 with the Trojans) fell into their lap with the
3rd pick in the first round of this year's NFL draft, Jets fans quickly said
three Hail Mary's, sensing the bleeding was over. According to USA TODAY SPORTS
WEEKLY, 20-year old Darnold becomes their highest drafted quarterback since Joe
Namath. Rest assured, he will be given every opportunity to show he's ready to
start. Suddenly, with Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater (trade bait?) looking
over his shoulder, the Flyboys QB position has gone from spotty to hottie.
Still, the Jets have enjoyed just one winning season the last 7 years, meaning
there are plenty of holes to fill. A fast start against a soft slate will go
a long way in mending a lot of broken hearts. A sidebar note in closing:
when the fast planes travel to Chicago to meet the Bears on October 28, New
York head coach Todd Bowles played for the state football championship in New
Jersey in 1980. His coach was Bill Nagy, the father of then 2-year old Matt -
Chicago's new rookie head coach.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Jets are 22-4-1 ATS as division dogs against foes coming off a SUATS division
win.
PLAY
ON: as a dog vs. Minnesota (10/21)
2018 AFC North preview
Baltimore
TEAM
THEME: ACTION JACKSON
The big
news on draft day was Baltimore trading up to secure Louisville QB Lamar
Jackson with the final pick in the first round. With the former Heisman Trophy
winner waiting in the wings, the heat is suddenly on Joe Flacco, the longtime
ago former Super Bowl MVP. Since winning the league's crowning achievement
in Super Bowl XLVII, Flacco has been a bust - pure and simple. He hasn't posted
a passer rating over 83.5 or tossed for more than 20 TDs since 2014. You have
to go back to December of 2016 to find the last time he threw for 300 yards.
The feeling here is Jackson will prove to be Ozzie Newsome's best draft
acquisition since landing both Ray Lewis and Jonathan Ogden in the first round
of the 1996 draft. And speaking of plum draft picks, veteran outside LB Terrell
Suggs (a first-round pick in 2003) is ecstatic with new DC Don "Wink"
Martindale moving up from LB coach to defensive coordinator. "He's taking the
handcuffs off the guys," Suggs said. That's good news for a team that led the
league in Takeaway, Giveaways (+17) last season.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Baltimore
is 13-3 SUATS following its bye week since 2002, including 7-1 SUATS when
coming off a home game.
PLAY
ON: at Pittsburgh (9/30)
Cincinnati
TEAM
THEME: THE TIMES ARE A-CHANGING
It's never
a good thing when your team owns the worst offense in the league, one that
generated a mere 280.5 YPG last season, or 28 YPG worse than winless Cleveland.
Now on the heels of consecutive losing seasons, it's safe to say head coach
Marvin Lewis is sitting on the hottest seat in the league. It's also
fork-in-the-road time for QB Andy Dalton, whose numbers have regressed across
the board each of the last two seasons as well. It's what happens when you're
sacked 80 times over the course of two years. As a result, Lewis made major
changes (5) to the coaching staff. With it Cincinnati will be changing its
offensive and defensive schemes for the first time in over seven years. To
better protect Dalton, the Bengals acquired LT Gordy Glenn in a trade and
drafted C Billy Price, a first-round pick from Ohio State. Still, talented
players dot the roster... such as WR A.J. Green, RB Joe Mixon, TE Tyler Eifert,
LB Vontez Burfict, etc. Remember: the last time the Bengals endured consecutive
losing seasons, they bounced back to go 10-6. Stay tuned.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Bengals own the NFL's longest winless drought in the playoffs: 27 years.
PLAY
ON: as a dog vs. Pittsburgh (10/14)
Cleveland
TEAM
THEME: BANG THE DRUM... SLOWLY
So what
does a team do with an embattled coach that has forgotten how to win games,
other than bang its head against the wall? For openers, it stockpiles draft
picks, reluctantly of course. With it the Browns have secured a total of 45
selections over the course of the last four NFL drafts, including 8 No. 1
picks. But through it all, they've become the 5th team in NFL annals to go
winless in a season, and only the second to go 0-16. Heck, even the alphabet
has more W's than the Browns. The good news is there is only one place to go
for this once-proud franchise. Celebrated QB Baker Mayfield will likely lead
the revival, but not before learning the ropes from recently acquired Tyrod
Taylor - who fits Cleveland's M.O. to a tee with his 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS
career mark in games when his team is coming off consecutive losses. In
addition, new OC Todd Haley and QB coach Ken Zampese figure to open up an
offense that has failed to score 30 points in a contest 43 straight games
(going 2-41 in the process) with newly acquired impressive targets and talent
in the backfield.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Browns are 0-30 SU and 7-23 ATS on Sundays with Hue Jackson.
PLAY
AGAINST: at
New Orleans (9/16)
Pittsburgh
TEAM
THEME: FLY ME TO THE MOON - AND BACK
Uh
oh. In a
three-year span from 2014 to 2017 - with 2015 being the only exception - the
Steelers traveled the fewest miles of any team. For all of last year,
Pittsburgh traveled only 6800 miles. In 2016, that number dropped to 5100. This
year, however, that number climbs to over 13,000 miles. It's similar to 2015
when they went 4-4 on the road that season. And what conclusion can we draw?
It's the only time since 2014 the Steelers haven't had a winning record away
from Heinz Field (5-3 in 2014 and 2016, 7-1 last year). So maybe travel had a
little something to do with that. Nonetheless, you can bank on the fact that
Mike Tomlin's troops will have their visit to Jacksonville circled in red ink
this season. The 45 points they allowed in a playoff home loss was the most
they ever coughed up at home in the postseason. Meanwhile, we love the Oklahoma
State tandem - QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington -joining the Steelers
from this year's draft. They look to be the heart of the team in the near
future.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Teams
who upset the Steelers are 1-17 ATS away when coming off consecutive SUATS
wins.
PLAY
ON: at Jacksonville (11/18)
2018 AFC South preview
Houston
TEAM
THEME: DR. DR. GIVE ME THE NEWS
According
to our NFL Strength of Schedule based on opponents' projected season win
totals, the Texans (along with New England) will tackle the softest schedule in
the circuit this season. That's good news for a team whose defense ranked last
in scoring last season. Quarterback DeShaun Watson, the former College Football
Playoff champion, is back from a season-ending knee injury last year. In
Watson's six starts before bowing out with the injury, he managed to toss 19 TDs
with 8 INTs while beating the spread in five of those contests. More
importantly, Houston went 1-11 without him (read: Tom Savage). The good news is
Savage is gone. Another piece to the puzzle will be the return to health of
defensive end J.J. Watt, the NFL's highest-paid and arguably most dominant
defenseman in the league who has played in only 8 games the past two seasons.
Helping on defense will be S Tyrann Mathieu, who comes to Houston after an
injury-plagued campaign at Arizona last season. So you can see the Texans will
go as far in 2018 as their health allows, while perhaps even going from last to
first in the NFC South.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Houston
is 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS as a favorite against foes off a loss of more than 4
points under O'Brien.
PLAY
ON: at Jacksonville (10/21)
Indianapolis
TEAM
THEME: 3RD REICH
When the
Colts hired Frank Reich as its new head coach, he was actually the 6th choice
on their coaching list. Reich brings questionable play-calling skills: while he
was Philadelphia's OC last season, head coach Doug Pederson called the plays.
Interestingly, Reich was a backup QB to Boomer Esiason at Maryland as well as a
backup QB to Jim Kelly at Buffalo in his playing career. His claim to fame was
leading the Terrapins to the greatest comeback in CFB history when he defeated
Miami Florida, 42-40, after trailing 31-0, as well as bringing the Bills back
from a 35-3 deficit in a 41-39 playoff win over Houston. The fact of the
matter, though, is the Colts will go as far as Andrew Luck's health permits.
Note: with Luck in the lineup, Indianapolis is 46-30 (.605), with three playoff
appearances. Without him they are 10-16 (.385). Meanwhile, the psyche of
the Colts is likely fragile at best as they suffered 5 losses after blowing double-digit
leads last season. After striking gold with a league-high 11 picks in this
year's draft, including new bodyguards for Luck in OGs Quenton Nelson and
Braden Smith, the transformation begins.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Colts are 22-6 ATS in games following a loss with Luck, including 12-0 SUATS
when coming off a loss of 14 or more points.
PLAY
ON: vs. Tennessee (11/18)
Jacksonville
TEAM
THEME: TIME TO DRINK THE KOOL-AID?
It's
strange how one good season can cast a whole new light on a struggling
situation. After enjoying its first winning campaign in 10 seasons last
year, the Jaguars promptly extended QB Blake Bortles' contract for an
additional three years and $54 million... for a quarterback that is 21-40 in
the NFL and ranked 20th in the league with an 84.7 passer rating last season.
Talk about financial irresponsibility. It's what happens to quarterbacks that
go 4-1 against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in a given season. Paving the
way, rookie RB Leonard Fournette made his presence known in the backfield when
he rushed for 1,040 yards and nine TDs in only 13 games as Jacksonville led the
league in rushing with 141 YPG. Best of all, its 286 YPG defense for the regular
season ranked No. 2 overall. So, yes, there were a lot of positives working for
the Jags last season as the culmination of cleaning up in the past few drafts
came to fruition in 2017. The question begs, however, what can they do for an
encore this year? Drink it up Jags fans... while you can.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Other
than home, Wembley in London is the only stadium in which Jacksonville has won
more than one consecutive game.
PLAY
AGAINST: at
Buffalo (11/25)
Tennessee
TEAM
THEME: TITAN UP
After
tossing more INTs than TD passes last season, QB Marcus Mariota enters his
fourth season with the Titans with more losses than wins. On a positive note,
Tennessee won its first playoff game last season since 2009. With Mariota's big
payday coming next offseason, this becomes his critical time to
stand-and-deliver. And minus
their first ever trip to London, the Titans have one of the more favorable road
schedules in 2018. The farthest west they have to travel during the regular or
preseason is their Week 9 matchup vs. the Cowboys on Monday Night
Football. With new head coach Mike Vrabel determined to tailor his spread
offense around Mariota, he could put up numbers last seen at his days with
Oregon. The good news is that last year's first-round pick WR Corey Davis (the
No. 5 selection in the draft) is healthy and was playing extremely well down
the stretch last year. Former Baltimore Ravens DC
Dean Pees retired at the end of last season, and then came out of retirement to
run the Titans defense in 2018. It all points to a potentially big
season by these Nashville cats.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Titans are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS all-time versus .500 or greater NFC East foes
coming off a win.
PLAY
AGAINST: at Jacksonville (9/23)
2018 AFC West preview
Denver
TEAM
THEME: OPERATION REBOUND
Yes, it's
confirmed. Denver is a certified 'mission team' in 2018 as the Broncos suffered
their first losing season in seven years - despite the fact that their overall
stats actually improved on both sides of the ball. Rather than canning
first-year head coach Vance Joseph, John Elway opted instead to tweak the
coaching staff and add missing pieces. With it the offense welcomes QB Case
Keenum, who came "this-close" to making the Super Bowl last season. And with
that, remember this: Keenum is 16-6-3 ATS in his NFL career when not favored by
more than 2 points. He's also 22-12 SU in his last 34 starts. The biggest
negative last year occurred in the turnover department where only the winless
Cleveland Browns were worse as Denver ended the season -17 in TOs, or more than
minus-two net per game. Meanwhile, Denver drooled when Cleveland passed over DE
Bradley Chubb with the 4th pick in the first round of the draft. Chubb will
pair with all-world LB Von Miller to cement a fierce rush defense that has
surrendered less than 90 rushing yards per game three of the last four seasons.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE:
The Broncos are 18-2 SU and 13-5-2 ATS the first four games of the season the
last five years.
PLAY
ON: vs. Kansas City (10/1) - *KEY as a dog
Kansas
City
TEAM
THEME: TURNING OVER A NEW LEAF
Let's cut
right to the chase. The secret formula to Andy Reid's success has been simple.
Looking back over the last three seasons, Kansas City finished #2 in net
turnovers in 2017, #1 in 2016, and #2 in 2015. It's a major part of the reason
Reid's Chiefs have won 54 games during his five-year tenure - despite being
out-gained -61 YPG in the process. After recently losing offensive coordinators
Doug Pederson to the Eagles and Matt Nagy to the Bears, the two-time defending
AFC West champs Kansas City offense will take on another new look behind QB
Patrick Mahomes, and yet another new OC in Eric Bieniemy. Given the fact that
Bieniemy has been coaching running backs since 2013, one might think the
offense would have a more run-heavy look. Not true. In Bienemy's two seasons as
an OC at Colorado, the Bufflaoes ran a 50/50 mix of rushing and passing plays.
If he can find a similar mix for the Chiefs it will greatly benefit Mahomes.
With talented WRs aboard in Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, along with TE Travis
Kelce and RB Kareem Hunt, Mahomes will have plenty of targets - and no
excuses.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Mahomes
is the first quarterback drafted by the Chiefs to win a game in the NFL since
1983.
PLAY
AGAINST: at L.A. Chargers (9/9)
Los
Angeles Chargers
TEAM
THEME: ROAD WARRIORS
Oh so
close. Had the Chargers not lost out on making the playoffs by a tiebreaker
last season, they would have been only the second team in NFL history to make
the postseason after a 0-4 start since... the 1992 San Diego Chargers (that
sounds so much better). Making matters worse, five of their seven losses were
by 8 or fewer points. And when the dust settled, the worst part is that the
offensive line allowed only 18 sacks in 2017 - the fewest in QB Philip Rivers'
career. In the end, it was a porous rush defense (No. 31 in the league) that
was the major culprit. "Missing out on that playoff
tiebreaker left a sour taste in everyone's mouth," said first-year head coach
Anthony Lynn. Another bitter taste will be the fact that the Chargers
travel over 28,000 miles this season - including a home game in London against
Miami - the third-most in the league. Which leads to an interesting dilemma:
the Chargers will go 6 weeks between home games from early October to
mid-November. Between that and every east coast game at 1:00 PM ET, the
schedule maker did San Diego no favors in 2018.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: QB
Philip Rivers' 201 straight starts leads all active players in the NFL.
PLAY
ON: vs. Tennessee (10/21)
Oakland
TEAM
THEME: GRUDEN 2.0
When Mark
Davis waved $100 million under Jon Gruden's nose, the NFL witnessed the most
celebrated coaching hire in the NFL since the Ol' Ball Coach Steve Spurrier
left the comfy confines of Florida's finest country clubs for the Washington Redskins,
where he quickly became the Clueless Ball Coach. Looking back in the rear view
mirror, many forget that Tampa Bay was only 45-51 in its last 96 games under
Gruden. Worse, the Raiders have gone 94-166 since he left. Only
Cleveland's 76-180 mark is worse. 'Chucky' has put his stamp on the program,
bringing in WRs Jordy Nelson and Martavius Bryant to pair with Amari Cooper as
prime targets for talented QB Derek Carr. And speaking of prime, Oakland will
be featured four times on prime-time television this season. The Raiders will
also travel more miles than any team in the league this season (31,716). With
that, it's worth noting the Black-and-Silver stands just 5-21 SU in games in
Eastern Time zone cities since 2009. With LB Khalil Mack anchoring the defense,
preparation for the eventual move to Vegas is officially underway.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Jon
Gruden is 7-0 SUATS with the Raiders in games in which his team owns a losing
record - winning 5 times as an underdog.
PLAY
AGAINST: as a favorite at Baltimore (11/25)
For more on Marc Lawrence click here.