2018 NFC East preview
Dallas
TEAM
THEME: DEZPERATE MEASURES
Following
the stunning release of all-time leading touchdown receptions leader Dez
Bryant, and the retirement of 11-time All Pro Bowl TE Jason Witten, the Cowboys
are about to begin a critical period in QB Dak Prescott's career. It was one
thing having both of them in the huddle in Prescott's rookie season. But now
that he is off a steep sophomore regression, the question is can he find the
same magic that earned him league Rookie of the Year honors two seasons ago
sans the services of the aforementioned record-setting targets? [Editor's Note:
Bryant's numbers (69/838/6) did not match his $16.5 million salary]. For
openers, they will be banking on having star RB Ezekiel Elliott operating out
of the backfield for a full season after serving a 6-game suspension for
domestic violence charges in 2017. Like Prescott and Bryant, Elliott's numbers
also took a hit last season. With defenses now loading up against the run,
Prescott will need to make better decisions this year. Selecting LB Leighton
Vander Esch with its top pick in the first round was a calculated move as the
Cowboys have learned that winning games without LB Sean Lee on the field is
problematic.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Dallas
was 8-2 when Sean Lee started and finished a game last season, and 1-5 when he
did not.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. N.Y. Giants (9/16)
New
York Giants
TEAM
THEME: THOSE WERE THE DAYS
The
last time Giants captured a division title was in 2011. If they wish to find a
similar magic elixir anytime soon, they'll need 1st-round CB bust Eli Apple,
whose character both on and off the field were highly questionable last season,
to prove himself. Things were so bad last year that the secondary allowed a
league-high 32 passing touchdowns, not to mention a rush unit that registered
just 27 sacks - and then lost Jason Pierre-Paul to boot. Strangely, it was not
addressed in the draft or in free agency. Instead, the selection of Penn
State RB Saquon Barkley with the 2nd pick of the draft was met with elation in
the Big Apple. He'll add better balance between a soon-to-be-retiring Eli
Manning and eclectic WR Odell Beckham Jr. - provided Big Blue wraps their arms
around the dynamic receiver (read: makes him the NFL's highest paid
receiver). Getting back to the postseason under new head coach Pat Shurmur
will be no easy task, not taking on what projects to be the 3rd most difficult
slate in the league this season based on opponents' 2018 season win totals.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Giants are 20-4 ATS as dogs of 5 or more points following a SU win.
PLAY
ON: vs. Philadelphia (10/11) - *KEY
Philadelphia
TEAM
THEME: TIME IS ON MY SIDE
A
tip of the hat to Doug Pederson for a job well done. After losing MVP-caliber
QB Carson Wentz to a knee injury in mid-December for the balance of the season,
he elevated backup QB Nick Foles to prominence en route to winning
Philadelphia's first Super Bowl since QB Norm Van Brocklin beat Vince
Lombardi's Green Bay Packers in 1960. In the process, the Eagles became
the first team since the 2009 New Orleans Saints to win a Super Bowl after
finishing in last place in their division the previous season. Is it any
coincidence that under Pederson the Eagles have led the NFL in 'Time Of
Possession' in each of his two years with Philly? InsideThePylon.com reports
that 7 of the top 10 teams in 'Time Of Possession' made the playoffs last
season, while also ranking in the top 10 in plays-per-game. In addition 7 of
the top 10 teams in 'Time Of Possession' also ranked in the top 10 in overall
total defense last season. Defending the title is never easy, though. And it
won't be this season with the birds taking on the 4th toughest agenda in the
league.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: It's
been 13 years in a row that a defending NFC East division champion has not
repeated.
PLAY
AGAINST: at Dallas (12/9)
Washington
TEAM
THEME: ROLL SKINS
Don't
look now but the Redskins have quietly been loading up on Alabama players in
the NFL draft. Through the years, they've selected more Crimson Tide
personnel than any team in the league and now find 4 players from the Tide's
suffocating defenses the last two years dotting their roster. The big news this
year, though, is QB Alex Smith will fill Kirk Cousins' shoes for the Skins.
Unlike Cousins, Smith actually sports a winning record in this league (90-67-1)
and it's our belief he is an upgrade. Paired with TE Jordan Reid and young WRs
Josh Doctson and Jamison Crowder, plus free agent WR Paul Richardson (Seattle),
the Washington offense looks to be in good hands. The hope is 2nd round RB
Derrius Guice (LSU) and 2nd year RB Samaje Perrine (Oklahoma) can prove to be a
solid compliment. The Redskins were scalped in all four meetings against Dallas
and Philadelphia last season. If they take care of business in those paybacks,
as well as continue their shining play in non-division frays (11-7-1 SU and 12-7
ATS of late, after going 7-15 SUATS against the same earlier with Gruden), this
team can make a playoff run.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Washington
is 7-0 ATS as a dog coming off a SU favorite loss of 20 or less points under
Gruden.
PLAY
ON: at Philadelphia (12/3)
2018
NFC North preview
Chicago
TEAM
THEME: CULTURE SHOCK
Justifiably,
after suffering through five straight non-winning seasons, the Bears will
operate against the cushiest non-division schedule this season, according to
our NFL Strength of Schedule chart on page 22. With John Fox now the only coach
in Chicago history to lose 10 or more games in three successive seasons, and
only Abe Gibron with a worse career record in Bears history, new boss 40-year
old Matt Nagy assumes the reins. Nagy cut his teeth under Andy Reid dating back
to his days with Philadelphia, and was the OC at Kansas City the past two
seasons. He inherits a team that concluded last season with 16 players on the
Injured Reserve, including former No. 1 pick WR Kevin White, who has played in
a total of 5 games in three seasons. Nagy's main undertaking will be elevating
QB Mitchell Trubisky's level of play. He went to work immediately and selected
Anthony Miller, a stud wideout from Memphis with unlimited potential. The Bears
also inked WR Allen Robinson to a free agent contract. With RB's Jordan Howard
and Tarik Cohen forming a talented tandem of tailbacks, a new-look culture is
underway in the Windy City.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Chicago
is 17-4-2 ATS all-time against AFC East foes coming off a SUATS win, including
7-0 ATS when the Bears are coming off a loss.
PLAY
ON: vs. Detroit (11/11) - *KEY
Detroit
TEAM
THEME: STILL RUNNING ON EMPTY
One
of the great mysteries in the NFL is how a team that perpetually ranks dead
last rushing the ball, while also allowing more than 100 rushing yards per
contest, has managed to win an average of 9 games a season the last four years.
Compounding the issue this year was the fact that the Lions had only 6
selections in this year's draft. Where to turn? Rebuild the ground attack
or shore up the stop-unit? The answer was... shore up the ground game. New head
coach Mike Patricia, former DC with New England, opted to draft a pair of RBs -
including smash-mouth runner Kerryon Johnson (Auburn) - while also signing
former Patriot bulldozer LeGarrette Blount. More important, the choice of
Arkansas C Frank Ragnow in the first round of the draft could be the key to the
rush attack. CBS lauded Ragnow in its list of underrated rookies,
saying, "Part of the reason the Lions haven't had a
100-yard rusher... has been the lack of consistency in the middle of their
offensive line. Ragnow is a no-nonsense brick wall in pass protection."
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: After Patricia took over the New
England defense, the Pats allowed 19.2 PPG - the 2nd best in the league to
Seattle.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. Green Bay (10/7)
Green
Bay
TEAM
THEME: MISSION PROBABLE
So
what happens when future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers lands on the
injured list for an extended period of time? For openers, the Packers end the
season with a losing record for the first time since 2008, snapping an
8-straight playoff appearance streak. And you can toss in Green Bay's first
shutout home loss since 2006... not to mention also dressing up as an underdog
against lowly Chicago for the first time in 17 series meetings. And on and on
it goes. You get the gist. So, aside from getting Rodgers back from last
season's broken collarbone - and dressing up as a 'mission team' in 2018 - what
have the Packers done in the offseason to get back to the playoffs? The hire of
Mike Pettine, former Cleveland Browns head coach and NY Jets defensive
coordinator is a strong start. As is new offensive coordinator Joe Philbin,
former Miami Dolphins mentor. At Pettine's request, the Packers landed CB's
Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson with their first two picks in the draft. Along
with free agents DE Muhammad Wilkerson and CB Tramon Williams on board, the
defense also looks to be in solid hands.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: QB
Aaron Rodgers is 1-7 SU in overtime games. QB Brett Hundley is 2-0 SU in
overtime games.
PLAY
ON: vs. Minnesota (9/16)
Minnesota
TEAM
THEME: HIGH HURDLES
After
falling one-game shy of becoming the first team in NFL history to host a Super
Bowl last year, and despite a blockbuster offseason, the Vikings may find the
hurdles a bit taller this season. Not only do several rough road patches await
them - consecutive road trips at the Rams and the Eagles, and at the Patriots
and the Seahawks - they must also take on five playoff foes in 2018, not to
mention tackling Sam Bradford after taking on Philadelphia - with ex-Viking QB
Teddy Bridgewater waiting on deck following the Bradford exchange. And we
didn't even mention facing an angry Green Bay Packers squad with a
double-revenge chip on its shoulder. Sheesh. Nonetheless, the fact remains head
coach Mike Zimmer remains a moneymaking machine and stepping in front of him is
akin to trading your Apple stock in for bitcoin. You just know it's not going
to be a good outcome. What usually is, though, is Minny's 19-6-1 ATS mark in
their last 26 games in December. If newly acquired QB Kirk Cousins can
learn to step up against quality teams (9-18 SU career versus .500-plus
opposition), they just may clear the final hurdle this season.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Minnesota
is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games against the AFC East, including 1-12 versus
.200 or greater foes.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. New Orleans (10/28)
2018
NFC South preview
Atlanta
TEAM
THEME: JUST CHILLIN'
When
Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford signed a $135 million contract prior to the
start of the 2017 season, it made him the highest paid player in the league.
The Lions then proceeded to watch the playoffs at home in their Lazy Boys.
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan, who has guided the Falcons to the playoffs two of the
three previous seasons as well, raised the ante when he inked a $150 million contract
this offseason. So where does this leave the Falcons? For openers, Atlanta has
the opportunity this season to do what Minnesota failed to accomplish last
season - namely becoming the first team to play a Super Bowl on its home
field. The addition of WR Calvin Ridley with the 26th pick in the
first-round was an absolute steal. He'll pair with Julio Jones to form one of
the league's best receiving combo. Meanwhile, head coach Dan Quinn went with
defense in Rounds 2, 3, and 4 in the draft. Atlanta's defense last year moved
into the Top 10 in scoring and total defense for the first time at the end of
the regular season since 1998. Now it's up to Matty Ice to earn his keep.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: QB
Matt Ryan hasn't missed a start since December 2009.
PLAY
ON: at Philadelphia (9/6)
Carolina
TEAM
THEME: SUPER CHARGED
After
falling prey to the Super Bowl loser-hex in 2016, the Panthers picked
themselves up and made their fourth playoff appearance in the past five seasons
last year. While it was a short-lived experience, it put the black cats back in
a proper frame of mind. To continue on that path, though, Carolina will need
more from its controversial, albeit multi-talented, QB Cam Newton. A quick
glance at Newton's production lately shows a quarterback in regression.
According to USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, after winning the league MVP award during
the 2015 season, Newton has posted his two lowest passer ratings of his career
(80.7 last year and 75.8 in 2016). It's also been five years since he completed
over 60% of his passes (the one-and-only season in his NFL career). Enter Norv
Turner, a three-time former NFL head coach, five-time NFL offensive
coordinator, two-time Super Bowl winner... and quarterback-fixer. The Panthers
also added weapons for Newton when they signed WR Torrey Smith and drafted
Maryland WR D.J. Moore in the first round. With the return of a healthy TE Greg
Olsen and second-year RB Christian McCaffrey operating out of the backfield,
Superman could be soaring again in 2018.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Cam
Newton is 13-5 SUATS with the Panthers against foes coming off a SU underdog
win, including 8-1 SUATS with a winning record.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs. Tampa Bay (11/4)
New
Orleans
TEAM
THEME: LOOKING FOR MORE
What
sort of an impact did RB Alvin Kamara and DB Marshon Lattimore have on the
Saints last season? According to PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY, New Orleans was the first
team in the league to have the NFL's two most outstanding rookies voted Rookie
of the Year in the same season since the 1967 Detroit Lions. Kamara, the 67th
overall pick, totaled 13 touchdowns and 1,554 yards while Lattimore, the 11th
overall pick, was the key addition to a vastly improved Saints 'D' that
finished 10th in points allowed. In the process, the Saints snapped a
skein of three straight 7-9 seasons and barged their way into the playoffs
before falling one game short of the NFC title game due to the 'Minnesota
Miracle.' With it the Saints hope for another Super Bowl run in 2018. They know
that at age 39, future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees does not have many miles left
in the tank and that the time to strike is now. As a result, they moved up
13 spots in the draft to nab DE Marcus Davenport to add pressure on opposing
quarterbacks. If he's anything like Kamara or Lattimore, it will be a wise
move.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Brees
has thrown for 4,000 yards each of the last 12 seasons. The next longest
skein in the league is 7 consecutive seasons (Matthew Stafford and Matt
Ryan).
PLAY
AGAINST: at Carolina (12/17)
Tampa
Bay
TEAM
THEME: SUNKEN TREASURE
After
savoring a winning season in Dirk Koetter's first year with the Tampa Bay in
2016, the Bucs fell prey to sloppy play and a defense that became the worst in
the league after surrendering season-high yardage to six different foes in
2017. The selection of U-Dub redwood Vita Vea (6-4, 347-lb DT) as their first
round draft pick is the first step toward repairing the damage. Offensively,
Tampa Bay was nearly as bad. The hope is that USC RB Ronald Jones can fill the
void of RB Doug Martin, who was released in the offseason. According to ESPN,
in a scheduling quirk, there is no Thursday game on the Buccaneers schedule
this season for the first time since 2011. In addition, all of their Sunday
games are scheduled for 1:00 PM ET kickoffs, unless they are flexed. Given the
slow starters that they are - just 2-10 SUATS at home during the first four
games of the season dating back to 2012 - any measure of normalcy figures to
benefit the Bucs, who were the featured team on HARD KNOCKS last season and
will be taking on the 2nd toughest itinerary in the loop this season.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Tampa
Bay is 4-17 all-time against defending Super Bowl champions.
PLAY
ON: at Atlanta (10/14)
2018
NFC West preview
Arizona
TEAM
THEME: A TOUGH ROAD
To
get a proper gauge on what Vegas feels about the Cardinals this season, all one
needs to do is peruse their road schedule. Based on the lines posted by CT
Technologies for every team in every game the first 16 weeks of the season,
Arizona will be an underdog of more than 6 points in each contest. For
comparative purposes, the Redbirds were underdogs of more than 6 points a total
of seven times in five years under coach Bruce Arians. What it means is
Arizona's strength-of-schedule this season is the toughest in the league when
weighed against opponents' projected season win-totals. With newly acquired QBs
Sam Bradford and first-round choice Josh Rosen on board for first-year head
coach Steve Wilks, along with Pro Bowl RB David Johnson anchoring the ground
game, the offense looks closer to 2016's 6th-ranked unit than last year's 25th
ranked corps. The Cardinal defense held up its end of the bargain last season
as only five other teams allowed more total yards. That being said, our best
calculated conclusion is that under-the-radar 'Zona cashes more tickets than
they do not in 2018.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Cardinals are 18-4-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS losses, including
12-0 SUATS following a double-digit ATS loss.
PLAY
ON: at L.A. Rams (9/16)
Los
Angeles Rams
TEAM
THEME: SPINNING WHEEL
As
Mike Mains called out in his 2018 NFL Preview on these pages, the 2017 Rams
became only the second team in NFL history to go from last in scoring to first
the following season. It was their first division title - and winning season -
since 2003. A lot of that can be attributed to the fact that Los Angeles had 8
starters last season that were either first-or-second round picks in the NFL
draft the previous two years. Call them the Jacksonville Jaguars of the NFC, if
you will. Coming off another solid draft that not only included 11 selections,
with nary a first-or-second choice, they also landed WR Brandin Crooks for a
first-rounder with the Patriots. GM Les Snead didn't stop there, though, as he
also inked Pro Bowl free agents in DT Ndamukong Suh, and CBs Marcus Peters and
Aqib Talib. To clear cap space, though, they were forced to gut their
linebacking corps with three of the four starters moving on. It remains to be
seen whether or not the massive hole can be filled. You know the saying... what
goes up must come down.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE:
The Rams are 5-22 SU and 4-23 ATS against division foes coming off a SU
favorite loss, including 1-12 ATS at home.
PLAY
AGAINST: at San Francisco (10/21)
San
Francisco
TEAM
THEME: JIMMY JESUS
After
opening the 2017 season 0-8 for the first time in franchise history, the Niners
appeared dead-in-the-water. But like a gift from the gods, the most impactful
swing in the NFL occurred last year when the Niners acquired QB Jimmy Garoppolo
from New England. Not only did hapless Frisco win all five of its season-ending
games behind the G-man, they also refortified their roster with key free agent
acquisitions (read: Seattle CB Richard Sherman and Minnesota RB Jerick McKinnon
- although out for the season with a knee injury). As a result, San Francisco was
awarded whopping five prime-time games this season. Talk about going from the
outhouse to the penthouse! The question is whether or not they can live up to
the hype. History says it will be difficult, especially for a team whose season
win-total this year is more than they won the previous two seasons combined.
One thing we'll watch is head coach Kyle Shanahan's home-road dichotomy. In his
rookie season last year, he was 6-2 ATS away but only 3-5 SUATS at home. Being
priced like a playoff team this year, we'll keep a strong pulse on how the
anointed one fares now that the league has game film on him.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: San
Francisco is 1-9 ATS in its last ten games as a favorite.
PLAY
AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Chicago (12/23)
Seattle
TEAM
THEME: AMAZON PRIME
Somewhat
amazingly, when CG Technologies in Vegas set lines on every NFL game for the
2018 season, the Seahawks were installed as favorites in only three matchups
through Week 16. That's meaningful this season considering Seattle has been
favored in 80 of its last 100 contests. They will also travel the 2nd most
miles (29,088) of all teams in the league this season, trailing only the
Raiders (30,797). This is in stark contrast to the Panthers, Falcons, Jets, and
Bengals who each log less than 10,000 miles in total travel. After staying home
for the holidays last season for only the second time under head coach Pete
Carroll, despite a 9-win effort, Seattle will be frothing to make amends this
year (see 2012 when they went 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS after missing the postseason
the prior year). And while it's suddenly en vogue to poke holes at Carroll's
crew these days, all one needs for a sniff of reality is to check out the play
of QB Russell Wilson, who put up MVP numbers last year. With no back-to-back
road games after Week Three, the alert has been sounded.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Seattle
is an incredible 22-4-1 in prime-time games with Carroll (note: five prime-time
games are on this year's schedule).
PLAY ON: as a dog at
L.A. Rams (11/11)
For more on Marc Lawrence click here.