By
conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of schedule is simple and
straightforward.
The
common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from
the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential win probability
for the coming campaign.
Playbook
Method: NFL Strength Of Schedule vis-a-vis Season Win Totals
Another
variable is to assess each opponent's season win totals for
the upcoming season and tally the accumulative amount of
wins.
It's
my contention this represents a truer methodology. After all, which is more
relevant: knowing how an opponent fared in last year's battles, or the expected
degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?
SuperBook
Season Win Totals
Let's
take a look at the opening 2018 NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate
SuperBook in Las Vegas on April 29.
Teams
are ranked from top-to-bottom based on each team's foes most projected
season win totals to the fewest season
win totals.
|
Team
|
Team Win Total
|
Foe Win Total
|
Division
|
Non Division
|
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
5
|
136
|
53
|
83
|
|
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
|
6.5
|
135.5
|
55.5
|
80
|
|
New York Giants
|
6.5
|
133.5
|
52
|
81.5
|
|
Philadelphia
Eagles
|
10.5
|
132.5
|
44
|
88.5
|
|
Cleveland Browns
|
5.5
|
132
|
51
|
81
|
|
New Orleans Saints
|
9.5
|
132
|
49
|
83
|
|
Washington
Redskins
|
7
|
132
|
51
|
81
|
|
Carolina Panthers
|
9
|
131.5
|
52
|
79.5
|
|
Detroit Lions
|
8
|
131.5
|
53
|
78.5
|
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
8
|
131.5
|
47
|
84.5
|
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
9.5
|
131
|
44
|
87
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
8.5
|
130.5
|
48
|
82.5
|
|
Chicago Bears
|
6.5
|
130
|
56
|
74
|
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
8.5
|
130
|
48
|
82
|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
10
|
130
|
49
|
81
|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
6.5
|
129.5
|
46
|
83.5
|
|
Miami Dolphins
|
6
|
128.5
|
47
|
81.5
|
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
9
|
128
|
48
|
80
|
|
Denver Broncos
|
7
|
128
|
51
|
77
|
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
6.5
|
128
|
51
|
77
|
|
Jacksonville
Jaguars
|
9
|
128
|
46
|
82
|
|
Green Bay Packers
|
10
|
127.5
|
49
|
78.5
|
|
Pittsburgh
Steelers
|
10.5
|
127.5
|
41
|
82.5
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
8
|
127
|
48
|
79
|
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
8
|
126
|
46
|
80
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
7
|
126
|
48
|
78
|
|
New York Jets
|
6
|
126
|
47
|
79
|
|
San Francisco
49ers
|
9
|
125
|
45
|
80
|
|
Los Angeles
Chargers
|
9
|
124.5
|
47
|
77.5
|
|
Oakland Raiders
|
8
|
124
|
49
|
75
|
|
Houston Texans
|
8.5
|
122.5
|
47
|
75.5
|
|
New England
Patriots
|
11
|
122.5
|
37
|
85.5
|
|
As you can see by this method, Arizona will take on the most
difficult schedule, with Houston and New England facing the easiest slate. In
addition Philadelphia will face the toughest non-division schedule with Chicago
drawing the softest route outside the division.
Also
note that many of the opening season-win totals carried extra "juice"
(i.e. Arizona 5 -130 over, Green Bay 10 -140 under). For the purpose of this
study the extra cost was removed from all season win totals.
For more of Marc Lawrence click here.