With Super Bowl XLIX in the rear view mirror, let's take a
brief look at what we've learned this campaign in hopes that we will be better
prepared for next season. Because, as Winston Churchill once said, "The farther
back you can look, the farther forward you can see."
Note that all results are from the 2014 NFL regular season.
REST
MAKES RUST
It's a commonly used term but it certainly has applied to
the NFL the past two seasons, indicating a serious trend may be evolving.
It seems as if teams coming off a bye week fell asleep at
the switch, compiling a lethargic 12-20 SU (straight up) and 11-20-1 ATS
(against the spread) record in 2012. Worse,
when taking on an opponent off a SU loss, these sleepyheads slipped to 7-14 SU
and 4-16-1 ATS.
Coupled with an equally disappointing effort during the 2013
season, the 2-year numbers for NFL teams playing off a bye week are just 30-34
SU and 26-37-1 ATS, including 13-22 SU and 8-26-1 ATS when the foe was off a SU
loss.
With most NFL offenses playing a high-precision, breakneck-paced
brand of football these days, one thing is obvious: it's getting harder and
harder to re-start teams after a bye week during the course of season - a
pattern that needs to be monitored early on next year.
OVER
HERE, OVER THERE
As alluded to in a column on these pages earlier this
season, NFL scoring has been on the rise since the 2006 season when teams
averaged 20.7 points per game.
While this year's 22.5 points per game production was down
nearly a full point from the 23.4 points per game average in 2013 - the highest
since 1948 - it was still the 2nd highest point production in the last 49
years.
Through it all, two distinct scoring models have occurred
the past two seasons - each of which warrants monitoring in the 2015 season
ahead.
NFL prime time games, or those played under the Thursday,
Sunday and Monday night-lights, lit up the scoreboard in 2014. And it paid off
in spades for over-under totals players as these games produced a whopping 34
overs and 16 unders for the season, including 9 over and 0 unders in games when
the posted total was 51 or more points.
Two years ago, serious O/U handicappers took notice of - and
profited from - a monster 'over-run' in matchups involving AFC teams versus NFC
teams. The word was out: go over any time teams from opposing conferences faced
off on the playing field. And simply by taking the high road in each and every
non-conference battle, players rode an amazing streak of 50 overs and only 15
unders.
But this story has no happy ending. The line makers made the
necessary adjustments in 2014 and when these same non-conference matchups played
out, a near-even mark of 33 overs and 31 unders went in the books.
Will these same line makers find a way to bring the
aforementioned prime time games back down to a more manageable level in 2015?
Stay tuned.
ZIG
ZAGGING
Three NFL teams improved from losers in 2013 to winners in
2014, namely the Buffalo Bills, the Detroit Lions and the Houston Texans.
On the flip side, two winning teams in 2013, the Carolina
Panthers and the New Orleans Saints, reversed patterns and concluded the 2014
season with losing records.
It will be interesting to see how these zig-zaggers fare in
2015. In a recently completed study covering the previous 10 NFL seasons, I
found this: out of 35 teams that flip-flopped from losers to winners from one
season to the next, only 15 of them reverted back to their losing ways the next
campaign. In the same vein, though, only 15 of the same 35 teams profited
against the spread.
On the other side of the coin, 28 teams went from winners to
losers over the course of the year, with only 12 of them managing to change
stripes and emerge as winners the following season. In addition, just 12 of the
28 teams managed to rewarded their backers.
NICE
DOGGIE
Being the contrarian handicapper that I am, it was nice to
see NFL underdogs bark in a coveted role this season, namely as home dogs.
These pedigree puppies were best in show when taking points
at home against opponents off back-to-back SU wins, going 21-7 ATS, while
managing to win 15 of the games straight-up on the scoreboard.
Better yet, they howled at the moon when taking points and
hosting non-division opponents, going 15-2 ATS, with 13 straight-up victories. Keep
them on your watch list next season.
AND
THE OSCAR GOES TO...
Best team in a favorite role: Green Bay Packers (9-3-1 ATS)
Best team in an underdog role: Arizona Cardinals (8-3 ATS)
Best team in division games: Denver Broncos (5-1 ATS)
Best team in non-division games: Minnesota Vikings (8-2 ATS)
Best team in games off a win: Arizona Cardinals (8-3 ATS)
Best team in games off a loss: Cleveland Browns (6-1-1 ATS)
There you have it. My
review of the best hits - and misses - from the 2014 NFL season. I can hardly
wait for September to roll around.
Note:
This article was written for and appeared in the USATODAY SPORTSWEEKLY.
For more from Marc Lawrence, including his picks, click here.