So...are we all set for the Jets/Bengals AFC championship game
in January? Followed by the Falcons/Cardinals NFC title tilt? That would be
quite a surprise, wouldn't it, with Atlanta off a 6-10 season and the Jets off
a 4-12 train wreck in 2014. Both seasons got their coaching staffs fired.
However, last season is ancient history. And that's
the thing about the NFL: parity is very much alive and well, the life blood of
the league for decades. They've been part of a group of surprise teams so
far in the NFL.
The Jets blew out the Browns in the opener but many
thought, "Anyone can beat the Browns." Then the New Yorkers went to
Indianapolis and as a 7-point dog shut down Andrew Luck and the Colts on Monday
night, opening a lot of eyes.
Even the Rams got in the act opening day by slaying
the Seahawks. But, as hoop legend Red Auerbach used to say, "It ain't the 5
that start, it's the 5 who finish."
Just think back one year ago at this time. The
Eagles, Bengals and Cardinals were the only 3-0 teams in the NFL. The eventual
Super Bowl matchup was....Patriots/Seahawks. In fact, those Patriots started
2-2 with all kinds of problems, prompting one national commentator to bark,
"The Patriots aren't good anymore." To which Bill Belichick replied, "We're
on to Cincinnati." Those same 3-0 Bengals got roasted by the
Patriots and the rest was history.
I bring this up to emphasis the importance of
patience. A hot start is nice but guarantees nothing. Scheduling, injuries,
personnel changes are all significant factors in the success of a football
team, and a hot start doesn't mean that a team is great, just as a cold start
doesn't mean a club is out of it.
This happens all the time. Scheduling can hurt a team
out of the gate, as can injuries. Three times in the last four years the
Chicago Bears had hot start before losing key players, including QB Jay Cutler,
to injuries. Protecting vital assets like Cutler, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and
Drew Brees is priority No. 1 for their head coaches -- and Brees is already
banged up in 2015.
This is the era of offense in the NFL with all
the rule changes, but no one told that to the Seahawks, Jets or Cardinals.
Those Seahawks started 0-2 this year, but they are still a sizzling 38-17-1 ATS
against the NFC, including 38-18-2 ATS at home after shutting out the Bears
Sunday, 26-0.
In 2013 Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs started
perfect, but didn't finish up that way. They were league's first 3-0 team
including a satisfying 26-16 win over the Eagles, Reid's old team. However,
they didn't face many tough quarterbacks during their 9-0 start and were
actually outgained twice during their 3-0 start, so cracks were evident - if
anyone cared to look close.
You want a strong finish, but you don't want a
cold start, either. The 2013 NY Giants started a miserable 0-6, then started to
win and cover down the stretch. Of the 164 teams that have started the season
0-3 since 1978, only five made the NFL playoffs.
In each of their recent Super Bowl years the
Giants played .500 football for much of the season before getting hot down the
stretch. We saw that four years ago, too, as the Green Bay Packers were
fortunate to stumble into the playoffs on the final day of the season, then
went on a red-hot roll on the way to winning the whole thing.
Five years ago at this time the Bears and
Chiefs were two of the remaining three unbeaten teams. They made the playoffs,
but the Chiefs were one-and-done while the Bears fell short in the NFC title
game. The Chiefs had been 85-to-1 to win the Super Bowl that season.
Sure, in 2009 the eventual Super Bowl participants,
the Colts and Saints, had red-hot starts, both not far from 16-0 regular
seasons. Yet, seven years ago as late last Xmas the Cardinals were an 8-7 team
and had just gotten thrashed at New England, 47-7. No one was talking about
Arizona as Super Bowl material, but a month later, there they were.
Naturally, a team doesn't want to get off to
bad starts, like this year's Ravens, Colts, Texans, Lions and Giants, but a
poor start isn't a death knell. A poor start makes it tough as there are only
16 games and few teams even qualify for the postseason. On the other hand, a
hot start isn't mandatory. In 2013 Carolina started 1-3 but ended up 12-4
winning the division. Another recent season the Eagles looked terrible during a
0-2 SU/ATS start, then went 11-3 against the spread the rest of the regular
season, winning 13 of their next 15 games.
It's a marathon and all kinds of things can
crop up to derail a potential playoff run: Poor defense, injuries, bad luck,
even scheduling, or bad chemistry. If your team is off to a disappointing
start, relax; and if your team is off to a hot start, don't start making
preparations for the playoffs. It's not the fastest horse out of the gate, but
the one who crosses the finish line.
For more of Jim Feist's winning plays click here