NFL Futures: 0-2 Teams Offer Premium Value

As Rudy Tomjonavich stated in 1995, “never underestimate the heart of a champion”. Time and time again in sports teams that look down and out have turned the corner.  This leads to advantageous opportunities to grab a loftier future odds ticket on a team perceived to have their backs against the wall.

Repeatedly in the NFL teams that start fast typically end up suffering a playoff loss to a team that has faced regular season adversity. Wild card teams that have momentum going into the playoffs have shown a no-fear approach on the road. The Ravens, Packers, Giants, and Steelers have all won titles in recent memory with a difficult pathway to the Super Bowl.

Last year at this time the majority of the media had put a stamp to the end of the Patriots successful run under Bill Belicheck and Tom Brady. They had just been drubbed by the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night football and were perceived as a finished team with a 2-2 record.

The over- reaction trickled to the Las Vegas oddsmakers who had the Patriots as an underdog the following week to the Bengals. Needless to say it was one of the best NFL point spread steals of the season and keyed the Patriots on their Super Bowl run.

Teams with winning history just don’t go down without a fight. The Seahawks have been to the Super Bowl twice in a row, the Colts have made a step forward in the playoffs every year under Andrew Luck, the Ravens still have their leader at quarterback in Joe Flacco, and the Philadelphia Eagles are in a division for the taking in the NFC East.

 Just because these teams aren’t ripping off wins out the gate does not mean they are incapable of changing their course.

Odds have shifted as a result of 0-2 starts with all four teams. Baltimore can be had at 18-1 to win the AFC conference, Philadelphia 10-1 for the NFC, Seattle near 4-1 for the NFC, and Indianapolis near 8-1 for the AFC.

Of all four teams the best value in my opinion centers on the Indianapolis Colts. They may have issues all season long but have a young quarterback in Andrew Luck who will stay resilient. Veteran players Frank Gore and Andre Johnson will adjust and find a suitable role within the offense.

The Colts also faced this same dilemma last season when they started 0-2. In similar fashion to this season they lost on the road to Denver and at home on Monday night football to the Philadelphia Eagles. The AFC South may be progressing forward but still is considered the weakest division in football.

The last three years the Colts have advanced further in the playoffs from the wild card, divisional round, and last year the AFC championship.

Having a near 8-1 hedge opportunity in January is a golden opportunity before Sunday’s week three games kickoff.