NFL Line Watch Championship Weekend

By: Art Aronson | Monday, January 16, 2017
NFL Playoffs

Game to bet on now

Pittsburgh at New England (-6)

If you want to catch the Patriots napping, probably the last thing you might want to do is call them A-holes, like Mike Tomlin did after his Steelers' victory at Kansas City on Sunday.  Kind of hard to crawl out of that hole if you want to avoid riling up the team that you have already lost to this season.  Whether AholeGate has any sticking power and provides New England with any emotional firepower this coming Sunday is uncertain, but what is certain is that both teams will be searching for their offenses in this one. Pittsburgh somehow survived in KC without once finding the end zone, and in Foxboro the Patriots and Tom Brady (two interceptions) had more trouble than expected moving the ball against the Texans. NE's late-October win at Pittsburgh can be disregarded because of the absence of Ben Roethlisberger, but the Patriots did hold down Le'Veon Bell (81 yards).  If you think that the Pats' spotty performance vs. Houston was a hiccup and NE is ready to roll again against an average Pittsburgh defense, you might want to lay the points now before heavy wagering affects the line or vig when we get closer to kickoff.

Game to wait on

Green Bay at Atlanta (-4)

There appears to be no obstacle too great for Green Bay to overcome.  If the Packers need six wins in a row to get into the playoffs, they get them.  Playoff victory over a Giants team that had owned the Packers?  No problem.  Go on the road and beat the rested Cowboys?  Child's play.  Given that, it looks like Aaron Rodgers & Co. should be more than ready for Sunday's NFC title game - even though they have to again play on the road against a top-level team.  Oddsmakers installed the Falcons as a 5-point favorite, but gamblers - no doubt impressed by GB's takedown of the Cowboys in Dallas (the Packers were 5-point dogs in that one) - scoffed at that. Packers money spoke loud and clear, and books were forced to drop the line to 4, which is the current consensus.  Might be worth hanging on a bit to see if a second wave of wagering affects the line as the weekend nears.

Total to watch

Green Bay at Atlanta (60)

Total players must be choking at this line, but there is some reason for it.  Two high-scoring teams at the top of their games, perfect temperature in a dome, suspect defenses, the top best QBs in the conference - all the elements will be in play.  But 60 (the number was actually bet up after a 59.5 open)?  That means scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals, it means at least a few turnovers and short fields, it means neither team emphasizing the run, it means at least a couple of PI penalties on long passes.  Lots of things after to happen.  And just might.

 

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