NFL Line Watch Divisional Round
By:
Art Aronson |
Monday, January 9, 2017
Game to bet now
Houston at New England (-15)
All playoff games are not created equal, and while the other
three this weekend could reasonably go either way, there just seems to be no
way that the Texans can hang in this one. Houston was not a good road team
(2-6) this season, with one of the losses a 27-0 turtle job in New England in a
game in which Tom Brady didn't even play. New England has had two weeks of
R&R time to get ready for this one, so it's hard to see Houston making this
one competitive. If Houston has any shot, it would be by pressuring Brady up
with the gut and taking away the middle of the field (that worked for the Jets
a few years back). Somehow the line which opened at 16 has melted down a point
as jubilant Houston fans celebrate the fact that Brock Osweiler did not spit
the bit too much against the Raiders last weekend. It's unlikely to move any
more.
Game to wait on
Green Bay at Dallas (-4)
On occasion fans tend to over-react to wild-card round
victories, and that might explain the heavy money placed on the Packers in
early wagering. But Green Bay was dominant in a 25-point victory over the
Giants on Sunday, and Packer fans hope that the great play of Aaron Rodgers and
tons of momentum are enough to carry them past the Cowboys in Dallas. When
Dallas is good - and the Boys haven't been this good in a while - it always
draws heavy national money, so the betting figures to level off. With so much
action expected on this premier game, cautious bettors might want to hang on a
bit and see if they can catch a line that might move a half-point in their
favor as kickoff nears.
Total to watch
Seattle at Atlanta (51)
The number on this one has already moved from 49 to 51,
perhaps a sign that bettors are looking more closely at the Falcons and
starting to realize that Atlanta's offense is really good. Especially at home,
where Atlanta averaged more than 36 in its final four regular season games.
Matt Ryan's rep has taken hits over the last several years as the Falcons
couldn't get any traction, but this season he's the potential league MVP and
has the best stats this side of Tom Brady. The Falcons won their last four games
to earn the bye, and the key in each of those games was getting off to a fast
start. If that happens again, the teams could easily blow past 51.
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