NFL Line Watch Week 12

Game to bet now

Cincinnati at Baltimore (4)

Can things get any worse for the Bengals?  This past Sunday's loss to the Bills (at home) might have just about ended their season.  Cincy is now 3-6-1, and while that's not too deep a hole in an AFC North Division co-led by the Steelers and Ravens at 5-5, Marvin Lewis has more than his share of problems with the team's best player (A.J. Green) possible lost for the season with a hamstring injury, and running back Giovani Bernard (ACL) definitely cooked for 2016.  The injury news moved the line from Baltimore -3 (almost all AFC North games not involving the Browns are field goal lines) to Ravens -4. Given the Bengals' historical inability to deal with adversity, even 4 might be a bargain.

Game to wait on

New England at New York Jets (+8.5)

Looks like a wasted year for the Jets, who are rumored to be getting set to release CB Darrelle Revis after the season. Coach Todd Bowles is reportedly ready to jettison erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick and start rebuilding around second-year QB Bryce Petty.  Problem is, everyone knows Petty is nowhere near ready, and inserting him into the lineup would give a loud and clear signal that the HC of the NYJ is cashing it in this year.  Complicating matters is that New England is next on the schedule after NY's bye, and the Pats feast on inexperienced quarterbacks because of their intricate defensive schemes. Best wait on this one until it's clear who the Jets will use at QB.

Total to watch

Seattle at Tampa Bay (44.5)

On the surface there appears to be nothing special here. Seattle is 5-5 on the over, and Tampa Bay games have covered the O/U number 6 times in 10 games.  But there's a little more to it.  The Seahawks have found their offense and have averaged nearly 30 points a game since the calendar turned to November.  Russell Wilson is playing with great confidence.  And don't be fooled by the Buccaneers' scoring less than 20 in a win over Kansas City on Sunday.  Prior to that their games had gone over four straight times.  In home games the Bucs average nearly 26 ppg.  This game was bet down half a point in early wagering, making it tempting for a hard look at the over.

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