NFL Line Watch Week 6

By: Art Aronson | Monday, October 10, 2016
Homepage-NFL

Game to bet now

Indianapolis at Houston (-3.5)

Bill O'Brien has to be pulling out his hair about now. His Texans have been able to beat mediocre and poor teams (Tennessee, Kansas City, San Diego) but have shriveled up into the fetal position against better competition (New England, Minnesota). Now comes a real AFC South test against the Colts, and an opportunity to take control of the division and put Indy into a good-sized hole. But nothing is guaranteed, not after Brock Osweiler stunk out the joint against the Vikings - 19 for 42, one interception, four sacks. This is definitely not a must-win division game for Houston, but if the Texans are going to replace Indianapolis as the AFC South heavyweight, it would be a nice get against a team that has more problems than even the Texans do. The early line (Texans -3.5) has held firm and doesn't seem likely to move. Game to wait on

Atlanta at Seattle (-6)

This game will give everyone a pretty good idea if the Falcons are playing with fool's gold. So far, so good, with the Falcons pummeling teams for the last month after getting ambushed by the Bucs on opening day. Over the last two weeks Atlanta has defeated both of last season's Super Bowl teams, scoring 48 on the Panthers and defeating the Broncos in Denver in a game that was not as close as the final (23-16) margin. Importantly to bettors, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS, thanks to rejuvenated QB Matt Ryan - who is by far the league's top-rated passer and over just five games has 177 more passing yards than the No. 2 passer (Andy Dalton). A win at Seattle would propel the Falcons into the upper tier of contenders, and bettors like the 6 they're getting so much that the number might melt to 5.5. Total to watch

Denver at San Diego (45.5)

Things are slipping away from the snake-bitten Chargers, who can't seem to close the deal. They've lost four close games (Kansas City, New Orleans, New Orleans and Oakland). The O/U line on SD games this year has averaged 50, and the Chargers have covered that number four times. The problem is that Denver is breaking in another new QB (Paxton Lynch), who will be playing just his third game. If you think that the Chargers' 8th-ranked offense will be able to move the ball against the Broncos' 6th-ranked defense, an over play should be considered. Key factor here is that the game will be in San Diego, where the Chargers tend to score a lot.
 
 
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