NFL Line Watch Wild Card Weekend
By:
Art Aronson |
Monday, January 2, 2017
Game to bet now
New York Giants at Green Bay (-3.5)
Since mid-October the Giants have been one of the best teams
in the league, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS. The surge started, coincidentally,
after New York went into Lambeau and laid an egg in Week 5 - being held without
a touchdown until late in the game and passing for only 178 yards against a
Packers defense that gives up 270 yards per game through the air. NY's problem
is that the Packers are also playing better. The NFC North champs come in with
six straight wins (three of which came against playoff teams), and the Packers
have scored more than 30 points in each of their last four games. This one
could tilt toward the Giants if they can get to Aaron Rodgers, but NY was just
middle of the pack in total team sacks this season (34). With equal money on
both teams, the 3.5 line is unlikely to budge.
Game to wait on
Miami at Pittsburgh (-10)
Early betting has favored the Dolphins, with the public
perhaps thinking that any time a playoff team is getting double-digits, it's
worth a sniff. Yes, Miami did look awful against the Patriots in their final
regular-season game - but the Patriots (8-0 on the road this season) tend to do
that to opponents. And Pittsburgh's defense is nowhere near as good as New
England's, so Miami should at least be able to move the ball against the
Steelers' mediocre D. Pittsburgh will no doubt be game-planning all week in an
effort to prevent a repeat of their Oct. 16 game in Miami, when Jay Ajayi went
off for 204 yards and Miami won easily. There are rumblings that starting QB
Ryan Tannehill might be back for this one, and there might not be a decision
until late in the week, or even just prior to kickoff. So unless you're a huge
Matt Moore fan, it might be a good idea to hang on for a bit before wagering.
Total to watch
Oakland at Houston (37)
Anyone with a spare quarterback is asked to contact the
Raiders or Texans immediately. Oakland is down to QB #3 (rookie Connor Cook)
after Sunday's injury to backup Matt McGloin. Houston is somewhat better off,
with backup Tom Savage apparently OK after suffering a head injury on Sunday. Oddsmakers don't figure any QB will light it up too much this weekend and have
set one of the lowest totals of the year. One book has the number as low at
36.5, which is unheard of in today's NFL.
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