It may be HOT and many folks are still
on vacation, but August kicks off the best time of the sports betting calendar:
Football season! Competition on the field won't be as intense as September, of
course, as wins aren't as important as evaluating young talent and trying to
keep players healthy. However, there will be betting lines available on
preseason pro action and it's possible to cash winning tickets. Here are some
things to keep in mind when watching preseason football.
Coaching Strategy: An understanding of what coaches
are trying to accomplish each week in August is essential. With four preseason
games to play, NFL coaches will typically go with starters one quarter or less
in the first August game, one quarter-plus in second game, the first half and
into the third quarter in the third game, and then very little in the fourth
game. Keeping starters healthy while getting them some competition against the
opponents' first stringers are the obvious reasons.
Coaches will often use "vanilla" game
plans, working on short passes and running plays. This is why preseason totals
are lower than the regular season. For example, in the Hall of Fame game last
season the Giants topped the Bills, 17-13. QB Eli Manning threw only seven
passes and the five other QBs in the game were named Nassib, Painter, Tuel,
Lewis and Manuel - no future Hall of Fame signal callers in that group!
Two years ago in the first preseason game the
high-powered Broncos offense played the 49ers, but it sailed under the total in
a 10-6 Denver win. Three years ago the high-powered Saints played the Cardinals
and the total was 34. It sailed under in a 17-10 New Orleans win with 4
turnovers as the teams combined to go 9-of-28 on third down.
If the game had been during the regular season,
the total would have been closer to 44. In fact, when the Saints did open the
regular season the total was 50 against Washington and their lowest total all
year was 49. In the third preseason game, starters are projected to play the
most. Working on basic plays and keeping things simple are often the case for
the first two weeks of preseason.
Home Field: While home field is a big edge when games count
in the post and regular seasons, home field can be less important in preseason,
especially in Week 4. It's been a roller coaster the last few preseasons. The
last two preseasons the home team is 16-15 SU, 12-17-2 ATS in Week 4. Four
years ago the home team was 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS in Week 4. The previous two years
the home team actually did well, going 22-13 SU and 20-11-1 ATS in Week 4, but
that was unusual. The four years prior to that the visiting team went
29-17-1 ATS in Week 4 of the preseason.
Newspapers: Keeping tabs daily on what local beat writers
are commenting on is important. Many times coaches will hint at potential
strategy, such as "We're going to open up the passing game a bit in the
first half this week. Or, "Our starters will play two series just to get
their feet wet." These tidbits are key and a successful sports bettor
knows how to evaluate coaching comments, injuries, and how strategy changes may
influence the side and total.
A few years ago in a preseason game, the
Atlanta Falcons coach was furious with his team's play the week before and
announced that the starters would play the entire three quarters. The line
jumped from Atlanta as a 2-point favorite all the way to 5, and went off at 6
by kickoff. Sharp bettors wasted no time in hammering the Falcons, who won and
covered the game easily, all because of the extensive game plan (and anger)
revealed by the coach.
Quarterback Play: Quarterback is the single most important
position on the football field. Think of the Super Bowl matchups the last
decade: How many below average QBs have gotten their team to the big game? The
Ravens in 2000 with Trent Dilfer and Chicago's Rex Grossman. QB play is
essential and a key this time of year as starters don't play the whole game.
When wagering on a favorite in preseason, it's important to carefully evaluate
the No. 2 and 3 QBs as they often play as much as the starter or more. A team
with a great starter expected to play just two series, with a rookie or poor
backup QBs playing most of the game can be at a disadvantage.
Coaches: Coaching is such an important part of football, as
so many players need to be organized and taught various roles each week. Some
coaches are more demanding in preseason, while others are more laid back.
Notice that Bill Belichick is 42-31 SU, 40-29-2 ATS all time in
preseason.
Click here for more Jim Feist winning plays.