Pro
Football Stats: Read Between the
Lines
by
Jim Feist
The best time of
the sports calendar is here, the opening month of the pro football campaign!
There are mountains of stats and angles available for sports bettors to digest
from this season and years past. Information certainly is a huge key when
analyzing games and point spreads. Sometimes it can seem that there is too much
info, but it's essential to understand that stats are only a starting point.
They don't always tell the whole story. In fact, stats can sometimes lie,
something to keep in mind when searching for football picks.
Sure, it's important to ask
such questions as, "How many yards passing per game does his team get? How
big is this offensive line compared to the opponent? Is a great quarterback
going up against a team with slow defensive backs? What's their home record the
last five years, straight up and against the spread?" However, it's
important to learn when to look beyond stats. For example, here are some stats
from the 2015 NFL season:
*The Steelers ranked 11th
in points allowed.
*The Falcons were 7th
in total yards.
*The Bears ranked No. 4 in pass
defense.
*The Steelers ranked No. 5 in
rushing defense.
*The Packers ranked No. 25 in
passing yards.
*The Broncos were 14th
in passing offense.
*Buffalo was No. 12 in scoring
offense.
*The Patriots ranked No. 30 in
rushing offense.
*The Lions were 9th
in passing.
Now, all of those 2015 stats are
true. However, they don't always tell the real story about a football team. For
instance, the Steelers' defense did rank No. 11 in the league in points
allowed, but it was not an elite defense. Hats off their coaching staff and
players for tightening up in the red zone, but the young Pittsburgh secondary
was awful, 30th in yards allowed (272 yards pg).
On offense, the Atlanta
Falcons were Top 7 in the league in total yards, but don't get the impression
it was a finely tuned offensive machine. QB Matt Ryan had 21 TDs, 16 picks and
their top back averaged 4.0 yards per carry. They were an erratic offense and
the stat that says more about their offensive efficiency was points scored:
just 21.2 ppg (21st).
On paper, the Chicago Bears
appear to have had an elite secondary, ranked fourth in the NFL in passing
yards allowed. Alas, teams didn't have to pass that often, as the rebuilding
defensive line allowed 120.9 yards per game (22nd). They had some dismal
defensive performances, too, allowing 48 to Arizona, 37 to the Lions and 38 to
the conservative Vikings.
The Green Bay Packers
slipped to No. 23 in totals yards and No. 25 in passing yards, partly because
of the loss of top WR Jordy Nelson in the preseason. However, it was not a bad
passing attack as QB Aaron Rodgers was outstanding with 31 TDs, 8 picks.
Conversely, the Denver
Broncos ranked much higher than the Packers in throwing the football, No. 14 in
the NFL in pass yards. But despite winning the Super Bowl, the Denver passing
game was abysmal a lot last fall, with dropped passed from receivers, poor red
zone play, and a pair of quarterbacks who combined for 19 TDs, 23 picks.
Yes, Peyton Manning was the Super Bowl winning QB despite a regular season with
9 TDs and 17 picks. We won't see anything like that ever again.
Speaking of up and down
offenses, the Buffalo Bills finished No. 12 in the NFL in scoring. Impressive,
but it wasn't an explosive attack, leading the league in rushing, but 28th in
passing. They also had some clunkers on offense, scoring 10 against the Giants,
13 to the Pats, 14 to Tennessee, 16 against Dallas and 20 to defenseless
Philly.
The Patriots were the
opposite, finishing the year 30th in rushing because of a banged up offensive
line, a depleted running back corps and they often bailed on the run
completely. But it wasn't a bad offense, finishing sixth in scoring,
third in scoring. When reporters sometimes question Bill Belichick game calling
or flaws in the offense he will say, "The object of the offense is to
score points."
The Detroit Lions had a Top
10 passing attack last season behind Matthew Stafford, but that was also by
design -- they had a terrible offensive line and running backs, finishing dead
last in rushing. The more accurate stat is points scored, as Belichick would
points out -- 18th in the NFL with 22.4 ppg. Successful handicappers dig deep
and weigh all the strengths and weaknesses before heading to the betting
window.
For more of Jim Fesit click here.