September Football: Upset City!
By:
Jim Feist |
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
There's a reason they play the games. Teams
don't always play the way stats and power rankings suggest they are supposed
to. That's often evident early in the pro and college football seasons because
some teams are very different from year to year. In Week 1 of the NFL season,
the money went on the Vikings Monday night, the young up and coming team under
Mike Zimmer that had been so impressive in preseason and the second half of the
2014 season.
Those Vikings were matched up against a San
Francisco team with a new coach that had had a terrible offseason, losing a
string of talented players on both sides of the line to free agency or
retirement. So what happened? The 49ers dominated the Vikings in a
20-3 beat-down as a home dog.
September is a fascinating
time for handicappers to follow college football partly because of surprises. A
few years ago Oklahoma was anticipated by many to return to the national title
game, but couldn't even get a win in Week 1, losing as a 23-point favorite to
BYU, 14-13. Weren't those the same Sooners were upset by TCU as a 24-point
favorite? Yes, and that took place in September, too. The upset was because Oklahoma had a lack of
quarterback experience as well as an underrated TCU defense. That's the thing
with early season football: Injuries can mar the best laid championship plans,
while team weaknesses can get exposed and taken advantage of by opposing
coaches.
Notre Dame has already lost their starting QB,
while in the NFL Dez Bryant is out for a while and Baltimore star DE Terrell
Suggs is already done for the year. I recall another recent season when
Notre Dame lost its starting quarterback in September, losing 23-20 to
South Florida as a 10-point favorite
It's also important not to read too much into
major surprises, either, providing there are not significant injuries to key
players. Sometimes a team pulls a huge upset not so much because it is so much
more improved, but because the opponent is overvalued. One season Duke won at
Boston College as a +7 dog, but the Eagles were terrible offensively with QB
problems that stretched back two years. When you see a team that can
score as a significant favorite, be careful.
This was the case with
another TCU team that dominated Oklahoma, then went out the next week and lost
to SMU, 21-10 as a 13½ point favorite. Were the SMU Mustangs that much
improved? No, as the next week SMU lost 66-8 at Texas A&M.
Early season football also features significant
shifts and changes, not only because of injuries but because of ineffective
play. How long will Jameis Winston keep getting the call in Tampa? Their
backup, Mike Glennon, isn't that bad - and isn't that old. The Eagles have new
looks all over their defense, so it's not yet clear how much improved (of at all)
they are from 2014.
Coaches select new starters based on
scrimmages before the season, but there is a huge difference between practice
and real-game situations. Subtle things reveal themselves in games, such as
leadership, decision-making, performance and even pressure. Some players,
quarterbacks in particular, have weaknesses in those areas that don't fully
reveal themselves until game-day competition. As a result, that can throw off
preseason prognostications of fans, media and the team's coaching staff.
A big early upset a few years ago was USC
losing at Washington in a 16-13 stunner that sent shockwaves through the Top
10. Washington had just ended a 15-game losing streak that month and had a 56-0
loss to the Trojans the previous season. The difference? It was not the same
Washington team, getting several key players back from injury along with a new
coach.
Maybe this will cheer up Tennessee and Texas
fans: In 2003, LSU debuted at No. 12 in the first BCS standings and rallied to
win the national title. Understand that preseason expectations are not set in
stone, and don't overvalue teams simply based on one impressive game.
Handicappers know that big dogs often bark in September, but that doesn't mean
they will continue to bark the rest of the season.
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