In the world of eleven to ten, there's nothing
quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it's two weeks, as the teams have two
weeks to prepare for the Big Game. For example, you can bet on the exact
score of the game by each team, who will score first, or how many yards a
player has. A common prop on all the NFL playoff
games is "The shortest TD will be over/under 1.5 yards." If you had
OVER in the Super Bowl two years ago you would have been pulling your hair out
after Pete Carroll/Darrell Bevel decided to pass from the one-yard line with 24
seconds left instead of handing off to Marshawn Lynch. Three TDs in the
game were from the 3, 4 and 4 yard lines.
Three years ago Seattle to win by 22 or
more points was 12-to-1 odds and the first scoring play to be a safety was
35-to-1. Both cashed. Total combined QB sacks was projected at over/under
4.5....and would you believe there was only 1 sack (Peyton Manning) in the Super
Bowl?
Four years ago passing yards by
Joe Flacco was set at 247½ (he threw for 287). Five years ago QB Tom
Brady was projected over/under 300 yards and 2.5 TDs (he finished with 276
yards, 2 TDs, going under for both).
Six years ago, Green Bay QB
Aaron Rodgers' TD passes was over/under 2 (he threw 3 against Pittsburgh). His
first pass to be incomplete was +210 (it was).
Ten years ago, if you bet
on Chicago return specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the
game you would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening
kickoff 92 yards. 14 seconds in cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way to
watch a Super Bowl!
You can wager that no TDs
will be scored by either team, often at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never
happened as we head to Super Bowl 51 next week. There also has never been
overtime, though you will be able to wager on "Will there be overtime or
not?" There will be "over/under" lines offered on how many
touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the ball
over and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered such as how
many receiving yards one player might get matched up against the number of
points the NBA's Chris Paul will have as the Clippers/Celtics battle before the
Super Sunday kickoff .
The Super Bowl brings out the best
in the creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the
props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and add to
their bankrolls. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers and Cowboys,
there have been 24 "overs" and 17 "unders."
Why so many "overs?" One
factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to sit on the ball in the
second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0 at the half of a December
game, for example, a coach might be inclined to go conservative, run the clock
and avoid injuries. In the postseason, it's the final game of the year and no
lead is safe. No coach wants to play super-conservative and be remembered as
the guy who blew a 20-0 lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it's the
last game of the season, coaches often put in trick plays and new offensive
wrinkles in an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities.
Despite the excessive
"overs" you can't overlook the importance of defense. The Seahawks
went to two straight Super Bowls with incredible defense despite being a Super
Bowl an underdog to the record-setting Denver offense. Denver turned the trick
a year ago with a powerhouse defense that won as a dog to Carolina. Five years
ago the Saints and Packers didn't win a playoff game despite all those flashy
offensive numbers, while the defensive-oriented Giants, 49ers and Ravens made
it to the Final Four.
In 2008 and 2012 the big
story was the flashy offense of the Patriots as a favorite each time, but
who came out ahead? The great defense of the Giants kept the game close and was
the main reason in their 17-14 and 21-17 victories. 14 years ago the No. 1
offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa Bay)? Oakland's great offense
was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa's defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact,
eight of the last 15 Super Bowl champs have had statistically better defenses
than their offenses, including the 2015 Broncos, the 2005 Steelers (4th in
defense) and '08 Steelers (No. 1). Five of those champs, the 2001 Patriots,
the '02 Buccaneers, the '07 Giants, Seahawks and Broncos, were Super Bowl
underdogs.
Key numbers will come into
play, as well, as books are petrified of getting middled. 14 years ago the Rams
were a 7 to 7½-point favorite against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points,
23-16. The most famous example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as
"Black Sunday." The Steelers opened a 2½-point favorite over the
Cowboys, were bet up to 5, then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when
the Steelers won, 35-31, landing on the dreaded 'M' word.
Super Bowl
Total Over/Under
50 Broncos 24, Panthers 10 43-
Under
49 Patriots 28, Seahawks 24, 48
Over
48 Seahawks 43, Broncos 8 47-
Over
47 Ravens 34, 49ers 31
47- Over
46 Giants 21, Patriots 17
51 Under
45 Packers 31, Steelers 25 46
Over
44 Saints 31, Colts 17 56
Under
43 Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
47 Over
42 Giants 17, Patriots 14 52
Under
41 Colts 29, Bears 17
49 Under
40 Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 48
Under
39 Patriots 24, Eagles 21 47
Under
38 Patriots 32, Panthers 29 38
Over
37 Bucs 48, Raiders 21 43-
Over
36 Patriots 20, Rams 17 53
Under
35 Ravens 34, Giants 7 33
Over
34 Rams 23, Titans 16 48
Under
33 Broncos 34, Falcons 19 51
Over
32 Broncos 31, Packers 24 49
Over
31 Packers 35, Patriots 21 52
Over
30 Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 52
Under
29 49ers 49, Chargers 26 53
Over
28 Cowboys 30, Bills 13 50
Under
27 Cowboys 52, Bills 17 44-
Over
26 Redskins 37, Bills 24 49
Over
25 Giants 20, Bills 19
40- Under
24 49ers 55, Broncos 10 48
Over
23 49ers 20, Bengals 16 48
Under
22 Redskins 42, Broncos 10 47
Over
21 Giants 39, Broncos 20 40
Over
20 Bears 46, Patriots 10 37-
Over
19 49ers 39, Dolphins 16 53-
Over
18 Raiders 38, Redskins 9 48
Under
17 Redskins 27, Dolphins 17 36-
Over
16 49ers 26, Bengals 21 48
Under
15 Raiders 27, Eagles 10 37-
Under
14 Steelers 31, Rams 19 36
Over
13 Steelers 35, Cowboys 31 37
Over
12 Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 39
Under
11 Raiders 32, Vikings 14 38
Over
10 Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 36
Over
9 Steelers 16, Vikings 6 33
Under
8 Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 33
Under
7 Dolphins 14, Redskins 7 33
Under
6 Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 34
Under
5 Colts 16, Cowboys 13 36
Under
4 Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 39
Under
3 Jets 16, Colts 7 40
Under
2 Packers 33, Raiders 14 40
Over
1 Packers 35, KC 13
NL NL
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