Super Sunday!

By: Jim Feist | Tuesday, February 2, 2016
Super Bowl Trophy

The great Denver defense against the dominant Carolina offense! Peyton vs. Cam, youth vs. old! Where have we heard this tune before? It's another Super Bowl clash of styles, one that went Seattle's way two years ago in a 43-8 laugher as an underdog to Denver, then last season's 28-24 thriller the Seahawks either lost or gave away, depending on which way you wagered.

This is the third straight season that the top seeds in each conference have met in the big game, which is remarkable as that hasn't been the norm. We had been in a golden age for the AFC for a while, almost as if the pendulum had swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 11 of the last 18, including three years ago with the Ravens as a dog and the Patriots last season.

What we have in 2016 is two strong defenses and opposites on offense. Denver is all about a hard hitting defense, No. 3 against the rush, No. 1 vs. the pass, and an offense that tries to protect leads and not turn it over. While Denver has an aging immobile quarterback, Carolina has a 21st century athletic giant in Cam Newton, who can pass (35 TDs, 11 INTs) and is a monster to try and tackle.

If defense wins championships then Denver is feeling good with the top-ranked ‘D'. But Carolina is dominant, too, No. 6 in yards allowed and points, No. 4 in rush defense. The biggest difference between the two teams is offense, as the Broncos are No. 19 in the NFL in points (22.2) while the Panthers were No. 1 (31.3), and just thrashed a good Arizona defense, 49-15.

The Panthers were a three-point favorite over Denver before the championship games but after dismantling Arizona the line moved higher. Denver hopes to continue a trend: The underdog is 10-4 ATS the last 14 Super Bowls, winning seven times. Here's a look at what to expect this weekend as America's unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.

What the Panthers want to do: ...Anything! That is, Carolina has been flexible and dominant all year, winning low scoring games as well as shootouts. They've held nine opponents under 20 points with a rock solid defense, anchored by star LB Luke Kuechly, who has a pick-six in each of the postseason games.

On offense, Newton has run for 636 yards and has help with RB Jon Stewart (989 yards), TE Greg Olsen (1,104) and WR Ted Ginn (739). The defense led the league in interceptions (21), takeaways (33) and interceptions returned for TDs (four) - six if you count the playoffs. Carolina is on a 20-1 SU run going back to last season, as well as 11-4 ATS. Only Atlanta took them down, 20-13, in a slow-paced, defensive battle.

What the Broncos want to do: Forget about any track meet. This is an old-fashioned style of team from the 1920s (or maybe the 1985 Bears) that prefers to knock the tar out of opponents on defense and play ball control on offense. They are a physical, dominating defense that can stuff the run, rush the passer, and shut down the passing game. The defense has been sensational in the playoffs, holding Pittsburgh to 2-of-12 on third down and the Patriots to 2-of-15.

But can they score enough points? Denver has plenty of skill position talent with 27-year old WR Demaryius Thomas (1,304 yards), 28-year old WR Emmanuel Sanders (1,135 yards), TE Owen Daniels (517) and RB Ronnie Hillman (863, 4.2 ypc), RB C.J. Anderson (720, 4.7 ypc).

The question mark is 39-year old Peyton Manning (9 TDs, 17 INTs), who had to rest much of the season because of injuries and poor play. Denver is 10-5-1 under the total with that conservative style. The last 40 years the "over" has gone 24-16 in Super Bowl play. Enjoy the big game!

For more of Jim Feist's winning plays click here

 
 
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