TENNESSEE TITANS OVER 5.5 WINS
Tennessee wasn't nearly as bad as their 2-14 won-lost record
last season. They had "the stats" of about a 7-9 team when you look at their
yards-per-play. Normally a team that gains 5.4 yards-per-play and allows 5.5
yards-per-play finishes close to .500.
They ended up settling for the #2 selection in the draft,
despite looking in the tank down the stretch...which is fine because it still got
them promising quarterback Marcus Mariota! Mariota has a chance to arrive very
quickly because Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt is an offensive guru.
Tennessee will exploit the best Mariota has to offer while hiding his
weaknesses thanks to a strong wide receiver corps and tight end Delaney Walker.
That's exactly what a young, mobile quarterback needs early in his adjustment
phase.
I'm expecting a lot from the defense too, as Ray Horton
enters his second year as coordinator. His complicated schemes sometimes take a
while. It sure can't hurt that the legendary Dick LeBeau has been added to the
defensive braintrust.
If all that isn't enough...Tennessee enjoys a "last place"
schedule this year that includes meetings with Oakland and Cleveland. The
Titans also get to face lowly Jacksonville twice in the AFC South, and have a
good inter-divisional draw with the AFC East (including the NY Jets) and NFC
South (including Tampa Bay). If the Titans just take care of the soft spots on
their schedule, we'll win this bet. If I'm right about the potential for a huge
step forward, we could be talking about a Wildcard team.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS UNDER 7 WINS
This is shaping up as a disastrous season for the Niners.
You surely already know about the front office implosion that sent Jim Harbaugh
to the University of Michigan. New head coach Jim Tomsula is a respected
defensive line coach...but is very likely to be in way over his head running the
whole show, especially with the defensive losses and the off-field problems
this off-season.
The key factor to me involves quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
I don't think fans and the mainstream media realize how much he was helped by
having former quarterback Harbaugh as his head coach. Even with that ace up his
sleeve, Kaepernick has struggled vs. quality defenses his whole career. His
turnovers could really skyrocket this season with the new leadership.
Also, the schedule is not San Francisco's friend in 2015.
Along with two games against two-time defending NFC Champion Seattle, the
Niners must face the tough AFC North (including Baltimore, Cincinnati, and
Pittsburgh), plus the improving NFC North (including Green Bay, Detroit,
Minnesota). San Francisco could only manage 8-8 last season as the implosion
was starting. The schedule itself could cause a drop to 7-9 at best...with the
wreckage from the on-going disaster easily leading to something much worse.
ARIZONA CARDINALS UNDER 8.5 WINS
This was a great story last year...as the never-say-die
Cardinals made it to 11-5 before falling in the playoffs to Carolina. The
problem with that great story is that Arizona really wasn't an 11-5 team. They
were outgained 5.8 to 5.2 on a per-play basis...which is almost unheard of for a
playoff qualifier. They were at their best when Carson Palmer was healthy and
abusing bad opponents. He was only healthy for six games! With backups, Arizona
lost twice to Seattle 19-3 and 35-6, then lost that playoff game at Carolina
27-16 (remember, Carolina made the playoffs with a losing record!).
In 2015, the fragile Palmer will once again be one big hit
away from the injury list. This year's schedule will provide a stiff challenge
because Arizona has the same NFC West rotation as aforementioned San Francisco.
The Cardinals have to deal with Seattle twice, then the deep AFC North and
improving NFC North. If healthy, Palmer will be tested vs. that slate. If he's
hurt again, the backups will be badly overmatched.
My biggest concerns for the Cardinals are on defense though,
and I'm not breaking any news with that statement. Last year's coordinator Todd
Bowles...who helped hide weaknesses with his incredible scheming...is now the head
coach of the New York Jets. Arizona also lost dynamic edge pass rusher Dan
Williams to Oakland. A defense that allowed almost six yards-per-play last year
has now lost much of its ability to make high impact highlights. This is a .500
team at best in my view. And, things could get really ugly if the fragile
quarterback gets knocked out again versus that tough schedule.
I will have major releases going each Preseason weekend as
we build our bankrolls for the regular season that is right around the corner.
Let's go make some money!