MLB Betting Notebook: From a Maze to Amazing

We're two weeks into the 2015 Major League Baseball season. I think the main handicapping factor that's jumped out at me so far is the dramatic impact that change can have in a parity-packed sport. It can be hard to tell so many of these teams apart in terms of true championship potential before the season starts. Teams who can create legitimate improvement are capable of "arriving" very quickly.

Let me explain it this way. If you're talking about a sport where there are very clear demarcations up and down the ladder (a typical college football conference, the widely spread out performance levels in the NBA for two quick examples), then marginal improvement will allow you to climb one, maybe two rungs at a time. But, in a parity packed sport like Major League Baseball in the post-steroid era, making even minor improvements will let you leapfrog a large number of teams. If those improvements are more than minor, you can go from being a relative nobody hidden within a maze of teams to being a championship contender in a finger snap.

That brings me to the Amazing Mets! It's way too early to anticipate a return to October greatness for this franchise. But, they provide a sterling example of how a sequence of improvement can push a team to the head of the pack very quickly.

*After finishing off a four-game sweep of Miami this past Sunday (and a perfect homestand!), the Mets were sitting at 10-3 in the standings.

*The Mets were getting strong pitching, particularly from returning hero Matt Harvey (who missed all of last year recovering from surgery) and 2014 Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom. If Harvey can sustain anything near his pre-injury form, then the Mets are at least a Wildcard threat right there. If deGrom doesn't suffer from a sophomore jinx...that's TWO Cy Young contenders on the same staff.

*The Mets upgraded their offense in the offseason (a story underplayed by too many in the media), and have been very consistent in run production so far. Here's the game-by-game scoring line of the recent homestand: 2-6-6-7-4-5-7. Elite offenses find a way to get runs on the board every day. You do that in a hitter's park...behind quality pitching...and great things are going to happen. Consistent run production allows a team to be a winner every time out, not just when their aces are on the mound. If the Mets are consistently going to pop 5's, 6's, and 7's....look out!

I've cashed with the Mets a few times already, and I'm kicking myself for not taking additional advantage. The market will make it very difficult to back arms like Harvey and deGrom at home going forward. It's important to note, though, that the injury bug is starting to hit them. Improvements can push to you to the top of this sport very quickly...but injuries can send you plummeting in the wrong direction just as quick!

A team that can tell you all about that is the San Francisco Giants. The defending World Champs are off to a 4-10 start that includes a disastrous 1-6 mark at home. They've been without Matt Cain and Hunter Pence thus far. And it's not like the rest of the team has enjoyed consistently good health. Jake Peavy just went on the 15-day Disabled List a few days ago with a back issue.

From World Champs to the third worst two-week start in all of baseball!

The line really is that fine in the current era of relative parity. As handicappers, you have to keep that as a point of focus at all times. The "true caliber" of all 30 teams is in constant flux because of players losing time to injuries, players trying to work through injuries, pitchers dealing with mechanical issues, team personnel changes, strategic tweaks from the manager, and so on.  

Before the season began....about 21 of the 30 teams were projected by the betting markets to win between 75-85 games. A few of the teams that weren't in that window probably should have been! (Projected powers Washington, the LA Angels, and Seattle are off to disappointing starts, while projected doormats Atlanta, Colorado, and Arizona have been better than expected).

With all of this in mind:

*Don't bet on offenses who are missing a key slugger, or who even have a key hitter battling through a nagging injury. Those offenses will take a step backward at a time when there's no margin of error to do so.

*Don't bet on starting pitchers who are dealing with a nagging injury or mechanical issues. It's very important that you monitor the injured list, news reports about potential injuries, and any discussions about mechanical problems. That's always been a great secret weapon for serious handicappers. It may be more important this year than ever.

*Do bet on teams who are at full strength, at least in terms of their frontline offensive threats. The most serious scoring threats in every game come from the four or five times that the heart of order gets its shot to produce. You want to invest in the hearts that are beating the strongest.

*Do bet on starting pitchers who are in good, consistent form and aren't dealing with any reported injury or mechanical distractions. These guys can be MACHINES in the current game because the subtly expanding strike zone and creative use of defensive shifts is making it easier than ever for quality pitchers to control their own destiny.

Generally speaking, you want to focus on underdogs at a time of parity. I think a more nuanced approach is needed for the current state of baseball affairs.

*It's okay to back affordable favorites if the offense is healthy and the pitcher is in good form. Amazingly, the market is actually UNDER-estimating the advantage this gives teams in an age of parity. A fresh healthy team on a homestand is in great shape right now against the mediocrities in the middle. I believe we're seeing lines in April of -120 to -140 that will be much higher in the same matchups in a few months.

*You definitely want to back underdogs against shorthanded favorites, or against favored pitchers who are dealing with nagging injuries or mechanical issues. That's been a gold mine already because the markets were pricing based on career stats rather than current health for a lot of pitchers.

*Be on the lookout for great Under bets where sharp pitchers are facing outmatched offenses. Again, this is "a pitcher's game" right now given the current environment. Take what the sport is giving you.

*Look bet Overs when two dynamic offenses are in the same game, and both pitchers are vulnerable either because of health or skill sets. You want Overs that have a chance to explode...with hidden insurance that each team can push the other to more scoring at ties of 3-3, 4-4, and so on. If only one offense is ideally suited to produce in a matchup, just bet that team straight and don't worry about the total.

Best of luck to you as the season progresses. I'll be checking in periodically with status reports as the 2015 campaign charts its course. Many here in Las Vegas consider baseball the most profitable betting sport because we have busy schedules seven days a week for half the year. Even if you sat out the first fortnight, there's still MONTHS of potential winners on the calendar. Go up to the plate and take your cuts!