Don’t put too much emphasis into how teams did against each
other during the regular season. When those teams met during the regular
season, maybe one team rested some players or was nursing injuries. There could have been many factors that lead
to misleading head-to-head results during the season.
I suggest that we approach
the NBA playoffs cautiously because of the above mentioned difficulty in
grading each team's ability. For example, the Golden State Warriors come into
the playoffs a bit banged up as Stephan Curry will not play the first round
games. The Boston Celtics were also banged up entering the playoffs as are the
San Antonio Spurs who played the entire season without Leonard, their star
player. In my opinion, the cautious approach is the best way to go.
Looking at the first round
match ups, San Antonio Spurs visit the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are an
8-point favorite. Greg Popovich is a
great coach and he brings the Spurs in here to take on the Champions. I'm going
to watch this game without getting involved, though I lean to the underdog
Spurs.
Washington visits the
Toronto Raptors. Toronto is an 8-point favorite. Miami visits Philadelphia, with the red hot
76ers a 6 1/2 or 7-point favorite. New Orleans visits Portland with the Blazers
a5 1/2 or 6-point favorite. Sunday Milwaukee visits
Boston; the Celtics opened 2-points and is now for 4-point favorite. Indian plays at Cleveland, the Cavaliers are
a 6 1/2 point favorite. Utah visits
Oklahoma City, the Thunder are a 3 1/2 point favorite. Minnesota visits
Houston, with the Rockets a 11 ½-point favorite.
Typically in the NBA playoffs you'll see much more intensity on the defense end
of the court. For example, already in the San Antonio vs Golden State game,
which opened with a total of 211, has dropped to 206. This is a combination of
the defensive oriented Spurs and the Curry-less Warriors. For the Spurs to have
any chance against the Warriors, they will have to control the pace of the
game.
Looking at each match up and
trying to find a niche prior to the series beginning is a little bit more
difficult however. Toronto is a deeper
team then Washington. What Toronto should do is continue to play tough defense
and use their bench as they did the regular season to wear down the shorter
rotations of the Wizards. I will keep a close eye on this as it could develop
into a good betting edge.
In several of the other matchup's pace will
determine the outcome in point spread decisions and the over and under betting.
There is no way that Miami will try to keep pace with Philadelphia. Whichever
of these teams that win that pace battle will determine the total and the point
spread cover. You can also expect the
same thing will happen with Utah vs Oklahoma City.
Finally, one popular
postseason betting pattern is called the “Zig-Zag” theory. That theory says to
go against whatever happened in the last game. If the Rockets covered game one,
bet against them in game two. If the game went over, bet the under the next
game. Because these teams could see each
other up to seven times a series, the theory is that the odds makers will
overcompensate for the last game and thus you get an edge going the opposite or
Zig-Zag the next game. I personally do
not adhere to this theory as I believe it’s old and antiquated, but some people
still swear by it.
Just remember that as you
watch and bet in the NBA post season, you should look to change your betting
from what you did in the regular season.
The postseason is all about adapting. Teams that looked mediocre during
the regular season may look great during the postseason and vice versa. It’s a long postseason so pay attention and
good luck!
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