As the NBA playoffs roll on, handicappers should take
careful note of how teams did against each other during the regular season.
Examine head to head matchups individually and as a group. Does one team
dominate another? If so, are the reasons for this, or was it merely a fluke
during the long grind of the 82-game schedule?
Some people made a big deal of the New Orleans
Pelicans beating Golden State late in the season, 103-100, and then meeting in
the first round of the playoffs. But it really didn't mean anything as the
Warriors completed a four-game sweep with a 109-98 Game 4 win and cover.
Two years ago the LA Clippers drew the Memphis
Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs, a team they went 3-1 against
during the regular season. A nice first round breeze, right? After taking a 2-0
lead the Clippers were taken apart by Memphis four straight.
What happened? One thing that happened it the regular
season meetings meant nothing. Memphis lost twice by double digits during the
regular season to the Clippers, but turned around and won four in a row by 12,
21, 10 and 13 points.
Three years ago the Heat opened their title
defense against the Bucks and when you look at the three regular season
meetings there was one close game in overtime, and two blowout wins by each
team. The conclusion would be an evenly matched series based on that, but we
all know it was the biggest mismatch on the NBA playoff calendar.
Yes, the Bucks did blow out Miami back in December,
104-85, but that was more of a fluke. Miami was playing its fourth game in five
nights and looked out of gas, losing the turnover battle 20-5. It was the
Bucks' first sellout of the season. Milwaukee, meanwhile, had two full days off
and it was the Bucks' first sellout of the season, who outscored Miami 35-14 in
the fourth. Be careful about reading too much into the earlier meetings
and look carefully as to reasons and situations.
Sometimes a team is missing key
players for one or two of the regular season meetings, which can explain why
one team did poorly. Or, maybe the losing team played in difficult back-to-back
spots. Other times, you may find that a team matches up well against an
opponent. If a weaker rebounding team like the Hawks are playing Chicago,
examine each regular season battle to see what was more important: Defense?
Offense? Or rebounding?
Another angle is when one team dominates
another during the regular season, then the two meet in the playoffs. The
public perception is that the team that dominated during the season will easily
rout the opponent, but this is not always the case. You may have heard
professional bettors speak of the "GAD" theory, or "Go Against
the Dominant team" during the postseason. It's not as simple as betting
against the favored team that dominated during the regular season, but it's
something to keep in mind as the playoffs commence.
For instance, a few years ago the Sacramento
Kings swept the Utah Jazz during the regular season, going 4-0 straight up and
against the spread. The Kings didn't just win - they rolled! Sacramento won
those four regular season meetings by some frightful scores: 113-80, 114-90,
107-81 and 117-109. Utah was no pushover, though, with Stockton and Malone,
plus hard driving coach Jerry Sloan. In their first round playoff battle, Utah
went 3-0 against the spread in the first three games, even winning Game 2 at
Sacramento, 93-86 as an 11-point dog.
The Kings were 12, 11 and 4-point favorites in
those first three games, yet failed to cover winning 89-86 in Game 1, losing
Game 2, and winning 90-87 in Game 3. During the four regular season meetings,
the Kings were 10 and 8 point favorites at Sacramento - but now in the
playoffs, they were bumped up to 12 and 11 point chalk - clearly public
perception had something to do with that based on the regular season dominance.
Utah didn't give in, even using their 0-4 regular season as a motivating
factor.
Two years ago the Dallas Mavericks had a remarkable
run to the championship, beating Miami in six games after losing two of the
first three. Few recall that during the regular season the Mavericks matched up
well, sweeping the Heat, 106-95 and 98-96, 2-0 SU/ATS.
Examine regular season meetings carefully. Be
careful of regular season dominance, and take note of injuries, rebounding
edges, free throw attempts or when a big dog played the favorite evenly (or
better) all season. The real story -- and edges against the oddsmakers - can be
found in the details.
For more of Jim Feist click here.