Tourney Wagering Tips: Goliaths and Guard Play
by Jim Feist
March basketball is one of the most exciting
times of the sports betting calendar. A seemingly endless stream of games, at
times running morning, noon and night, will test the nerves and cognitive
powers of fans and bettors. It can be a time of highs and lows, with streaks,
exciting finishes and surprising upsets.
What has taken shape the last few months,
though, is largely conference play. Since conferences are purposely made up of
schools with a similar level of talent, you need to pay attention to how teams
start the season and what their schedule has been like. Some schools want to
get a few cheap victories over smaller schools and fatten up their won/lost
record early in the season, while others want to test their teams early to
toughen them up for conference play.
Now it's time for Big Dance play to
begin, essentially the third season of college basketball. The first season was
November and December, non-conference games, plus coaches trying to figure out
their personnel and strengths and weaknesses. The second season has been
conference play the last two months, and now it's the home stretch for the
title. This is where the weak links drop off, while the better and more
motivated teams advance.
While the big man is so important
to winning championships in the NBA, college basketball tournaments find more
of a premium on strong guard play. The sparkplug guard handles the ball,
controls the tempo, and can go on a hot run from three-point land at any
moment. Remember that the college three-point shot is closer to the basket than
the NBA trey. In addition, poor guard play can result in too many turnovers,
which can be a killer to a team's momentum and hopes of advancing.
Another factor to examine is power
ratings and RPI rankings. Some small schools can have a mediocre record, but a
strong RPI rank because they played a string of tough competition early in the
season. Teams like that can be in better shape come tourney time, even though
their overall record might not be that impressive.
For instance, Butler has
impressive non-conference wins over Arizona, Cincinnati and Utah. Last year
Northern Iowa was 3-0 against foes ranked in the AP Top 25 with victories over
No. 1 North Carolina (71-67), No. 5 Iowa State (81-79) and No. 25 Wichita State
(53-50). A few years ago Ball State started the season with a 7-4 record
and an unimpressive 4-3 against the spread mark. Yet, the team was highly
ranked in the national polls, as was their RPI rating (ratings percentage
index). Why? Ball State played a tough non-conference schedule to begin the
season. Ball State beat Kansas 93-91 as a +15 dog, smashed UCLA 91-73 as +9
dog, then lost to #1 Duke 83-71 as a +13 dog. That 3-0 ATS start turned a lot
of heads, and Ball State went on to play competitive games against Indiana and
Oklahoma State team before losing.
From a betting perspective, it is
important to remember that the general public leans toward the favorite and
games over the total in all sports. Plus, teams win with defense and college
basketball is no different, especially when the games mean so much in March.
Teams often bring their top-notch defense into the tourney from the opening
game.
Another point to consider is one
way to identify live dogs is how they play down the stretch. If a team is
hungry and turns on the jets to either win a conference title or shoot for a
20-win season, that can be reflected in their play, both straight up and
against the number. One year Wisconsin-Milwaukee out of the Horizon League had
outstanding guard play behind senior Ed McCants, Ronald Davis and Chris Hill.
Milwaukee won 14 of its final 15 regular season games, then swept through the
Horizon League tourney to win the championship.
So the Panthers carried a 17-1
straight up, 13-4-1 against the spread run into the big dance. Talk about a
motivated team on a roll! Wisconsin-Milwaukee upset Alabama 83-73, then Boston
College 83-75, before running out of steam against Illinois. That's the other
thing about small, live dogs: Eventually they do run out of steam because they
usually lack the horses the deeper the tournament goes. However, they provide
far more surprises than you might at first think. In March tournament play, the
public may be caught off guard by surprises, but the astute handicapper
anticipates them.
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