Can
You Spell Defense?
Forget
the 'The Wall" that our self-proclaimed genius president is hell-bent on
building at American taxpayer expense. All we need instead is a
blueprint of the top defenses residing in the Mountain West Conference these
days.
The
strength of the Mountain West Conference each of the last two years has been
its defense. That's' confirmed by the fact that no less than three teams
finished both the 2017 and 2018 football seasons ranked in the Top 25 in
overall defense: #11 San Diego State (314.5), #22 Boise State (332.6) and #23
Wyoming (335.2) in 2018; and #17 Fresno State (321.6), #19 Wyoming (326.2), and
#21 San Diego State (334.6) in 2019.
20
For 20
As
the Mountain West Conference begins its 21st football season this year it's
worth noting that have more than held their own in games outside the
conference. And a stellar 62-48-1 ATS mark as dogs of 20-plus points since its
inception, including 17-7 ATS in season-opening games sets the table for the
MWC this season.
Bowling
For Dollars
Speaking
of non-conference clashes, the MWC has more than held its own in bowl games,
going 52-43 SU all-time.
More
importantly, they stand 12-3 ATS all-time as bowl dogs of 6 or more
points. Remember that.
Note:
Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2019 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide
magazine on sale at newsstands nationwide. The numbers following each team name
represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with
the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning
quarterback. The RPR represents each team's overall, offensive and defensive
rankings in overall returning production experience.
2019 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE PREVIEW - MOUNTAIN DIVISION
AIR
FORCE Off - *8/4 Def - 7/2 RPR: 75/72/74
TEAM
THEME: BABY
STEPS
Coming
off consecutive 5-7 seasons, AFA head coach Troy Calhoun is like a calf in a
rodeo... fit to be tied. While calf roping is a cruel sport, so are losing
seasons in Colorado Springs. In fact, you need to go back to 1981 to find the
last time the Flyboys posted three straight losing seasons. Remember, Calhoun
has averaged 7.25 wins per season with Air Force while suffering consecutive
losing seasons only ONCE (until the last two years), when he bounced back to go
10-3 in 2014. Meanwhile, it should be pointed out that the Falcons suffered
five losses by 8 or fewer points last season. Look for a reversal of fortune in
2019.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Falcons are 8-1 ATS as dogs of 20 or more points since 1996.
PLAY
ON: vs.
Army (11/2)
BOISE
STATE Off - 6/5 Def -
7/2 RPR: 88/120/22
TEAM
THEME: GO
FISH
There
is something to be said about being the biggest fish in a small pond. It's the
status Boise State has attained. The last time a Broncos football team failed
to win 8 games in a season was 1998. The most consistent Group of Five team in
the nation has knocked off six of their last ten Power Five foes. Helping
matters this year, Boise featured 20 underclassmen that made starts last
season. Sans QB Brett Rypien in 2019, BSU will take on only 4 foes that had
winning records last season, practically guaranteeing them another double-digit
win campaign in 2019. As we said, it's better to swim in a lake with fishes than
in an ocean with sharks.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Broncos are 75-2 SU in games vs. .500 or fewer foes with Bryan Harsin on the
sidelines (as OC 2006-2010 and since 2014).
PLAY
AGAINST: at
BYU (10/19)
COLORADO
STATE Off - *5/2 Def - 6/3 RPR: 125/126/96
TEAM
THEME: RAISON
D'ETRE
Mike
Bobo's neuropathy problems were nothing compared to what the Rams suffered
through when they were forced to replace the 2nd most overall total starters
(15) in the nation, including seniors that had made a whopping 69.6% of all
starts. If Joe Jackson were their head coach, we'd have called them the
Shoeless Rams. Last year's results spoke for themselves as a 3-win season
snapped a 6-year bowl skein, thus making them a bonafide "mission team" in
2019. This season you can expect them to benefit from a 2017 recruiting class
that included 23 members, 19 of whom saw playing time last year - including six
true freshmen that combined to make 30 starts.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Rams are 0-23 SU all-time versus ranked opponents.
PLAY
ON: at
Utah State (9/28)
NEW
MEXICO Off - *8/4 Def -
2/2 RPR: 115/80/117
TEAM
THEME: EARLY
BIRDS GET THE WORM
We're
as shocked as anyone that Bob Davie is still roaming the sidelines in
Albuquerque these days. Coming off a pair of 3-9 seasons, and suspended 30 days
over sexual allegations last season, we're guessing this will be his
make-or-break year with the Lobos. Last year Davie hit the JUCO circuit hard to
replenish a delicately young roster and it failed to materialize. With it, even
more JUCO transfers and two new coordinators are in place in this last gasp
salvage attempt. To do so, he'll need to capitalize on a soft early schedule.
We do know that Davie is 45-25 against losing foes but only 17-45 against
winning opponents in his career. And therein lies his future.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Lobos are 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in Game Eleven of the season since 2005.
PLAY
ON: vs.
Liberty (9/28)
UTAH
STATE Off - *2/1
Def - 7/3 RPR: 104/110/68
TEAM
THEME: TAPIOCA
Rest
assured, the Aggies will miss Matt Wells, now calling the shots at Texas Tech.
The proof is in the pudding: Utah State was 32-16 SU in conference games under
Wells. They were 24-42 SU the previous nine seasons. Returning to take over the
reins is former USU head coach Gary Andersen, named WAC Coach of the year in
his final season in Logan in 2012. He was also the first head coach at Utah
State to notch a winning record since Phil Krueger (1973-75). While the offense
was pillaged by graduation losses, QB Nathan Love returns after setting five
school records in 2018, including 32 TD passes and 3,567 yards. Andersen will
have his work cut out for him.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Aggies were tied with New Mexico State with most Special Teams touchdowns last
season.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs.
Wyoming (11/16)
WYOMING
Off - *5/3 Def
- 6/1 RPR: 120/102/113
TEAM
THEME: BOHL
BOUND
Last
year we maintained that head coach Craig Bohl's force-feeding of youngsters
three seasons ago would pay dividends. It did not pan out as expected in 2018,
but we remain firm in our conviction that the Cowboys are closer to the 8-win
seasons they enjoyed in 2016 and 2017 than the 6 wins they posted last year.
For openers, last year's unit closed out the season on a 4-game stampede. The
chip they carry on their shoulder this season is that they were a 6-win
bowl-eligible team that was bypassed by bowl committees, snapping a two-year
bowl run under Bohl. Remember, they lost their top two RBs, best WR and
starting guard to injuries before the season last year.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Wyoming
is 6-1 ATS as a bowl dog against sub .800 opponents.
PLAY
AGAINST: at
Air Force (11/30)
2019 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE PREVIEW - WEST DIVISION
FRESNO
STATE Off - 3/1 Def -
6/4 RPR: 129/127/121
TEAM
THEME: WHAT
GOES UP...
Since
joining the MWC in 2012, the Bulldogs have won three league championships and
four division titles. It goes without saying that head coach Jeff Tedford has
been instrumental in the program's success as they finished last season
nationally ranked for the first time since 2004. Now, however, the bar rises to
a completely new level in 2019. Only three starters are back on offense and
none of them is QB Marcus McMaryion, who was 21-4 as a starter. On top of it
all, OC Kalen DeBoer left the program for Indiana. With the worst RPR in the
FBS, fortunately, they will face losing teams in six of their first seven games.
Beware.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Fresno
State is the first team in FBS history to secure back-to-back double-digit
winning seasons following a double-digit loss season.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs.
Nevada (11/23)
HAWAII
Off - *9/5 Def - 9/3
RPR: 9/34/9
TEAM
THEME: KULIA
I KA NU'U
Meet
one of the most experienced squads in college football this season. With 9
starters back on each side of the ball, the Warriors also hold down a No. 9
overall RPR ranking. Led by gunslinger QB Cole McDonald - ranked 1st in passing
yards in the MWC and 8th overall in the nation - and a front wall that brings
back all five starters from 2018, the grass skirts represent the best talent
Nick Rolovich has had in his three years in Honolulu. Our concern, though, is a
defense that surrendered season-high yardage in half of their games last
season, coughing up 24 or more points in 10 of its 11 FBS games. Fasten your
seat belts as is could be a bumpy ride for Rolo's boys this year.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Hawaii
is 0-9-1 ATS as a favorite under Nick Rolovich
PLAY
AGAINST: as
a favorite vs. San Jose State (11/9)
NEVADA
Off - 6/2 Def -
4/2 RPR: 66/40/98
TEAM
THEME: UP
IN THE AIR
Jay
Norvell's offense has gone from Air Raid to Air Pistol, but no one in Reno is
complaining after an 8-win season last year, the Wolf Packs best tally since
2010. While it's nowhere near the Chris Ault and Colin Kaepernick attack from
10 years ago, Nevada's offense has improved in each of Norvell's two seasons in
Nevada. But with OC Matt Mumme and QB coach Timmy Chang calling the shots, it
still falls far short of expectations. Three-year starting QB Ty Gangi is gone,
leaving a large hole, but Norvell hit the recruiting trail hard and managed to
land a star-studded class of defensive recruits. Our guess is they're bowl
bound again this year.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Nevada
is 0-8 SUATS away off a win in which the Pack were not an underdog under
Norvell.
PLAY
AGAINST: at
San Diego State (11/9)
SAN
DIEGO STATE Off - *7/3 Def - 6/0
RPR: 42/57/51
TEAM
THEME: ROCK
AND ROLL
Rocky
Long's secret to success is no secret at all: he loves to pound the ball down
your throat and backs it up with a tough-as-nails defense. It's resulted in 8
bowl trips in eight seasons (after SDSU had been bowling just three times in 23
previous years). However, after three consecutive double-digit win seasons, the
Aztecs somehow slipped to 7 wins last season when they dropped their final four
games of the campaign. Fear not, though, as an experienced offensive line, a
healthy Juwan Washington, and a deep supporting cast of running backs, insure
another powerful ground attack. Meanwhile, the Aztecs' defensive back-eight
looks to be the best in the conference. Don't knock the Rock this year.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: After
previously going 41-10 SU and 32-15-2 ATS from Game 6 out with Long, the Aztecs
went 1-7 ATS from Game 6 out last season.
PLAY
ON: at
Hawaii (11/23)
SAN
JOSE STATE Off - *7/4
Def - 6/1 RPR: 71/68/72
TEAM
THEME: ROAD
TO RECOVERY
There
are misleading stats and then there are misleading stats. In San Jose State's
case, a pair of 1-7 efforts in conference play the past two seasons under Brent
Brennan would look, on the surface, to be a telling tale. Yet the Spartans were
6-2 ATS in MWC play last year after covering only 3 of 8 conference games in
2017. Could that be a buy sign? Improvement in the passing attack, as well as
the rush defense, lends promise for continued growth this year. And if that
improvement comes, it will likely happen over the course of their first five
games of the campaign, as the Spartans will tackle 6 bowlers over their final
seven games of the season.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
'In The Stats' winner in Spartans games is 53-9 SU the last five seasons.
PLAY
ON: at
UNLV (11/23)
UNLV
Off - *9/4 Def -
5/1 RPR: 39/17/87
TEAM
THEME: BOWL
OR BUST
Hometown
hero head coach Tony Sanchez enters the final year of his contract with the
Rebels riding on the hot seat. And it's also a good bet that the flames will be
lowered by season's end. Finally playing with a full deck of scholarship
players, this UNLV team has something they haven't had on the defensive side of
the ball in a very long time... depth. In addition, the Rebels will be
returning almost every key member on offense, led by a healthy Armani Rogers
behind center. He'll operate behind an offensive line that goes three-deep
across the board with an electrifying cast of wide receivers. This is, hands
down, the best team that Sanchez has had with UNLV.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Rebels have enjoyed just one winning season over the last 18 years.
PLAY
AGAINST: at Nevada (11/30)
For more in Marc Lawrence click here.