Alabama, Florida State Projected in Playoff Based on Power Ratings

The Crimson Tide & Seminoles Would Make 4-Team Playoff, But Who Else?

If it were up to the Don Best College Football Linemakers poll, bettors would definitely know the top two teams projected to participate in the four-team playoff at the end of the season because they are ranked by the Don Best Advantage Power Ratings. But like most rankings, they will always be up for debate, and the Linemakers Poll is no different. Keep this in mind as the College Football Playoff committee released its first Top 25 rankings of the 2014 season on Tuesday.

The latest edition of the Top 30 College Football Linemakers Poll, also released on Tuesday, has two clear-cut teams at the top in No. 1 Alabama (126 DBA Power Rating) and No. 2 Florida State (122). However, there are three teams tied at No. 3 with Baylor, Georgia and Michigan State all earning a 119.5 rating. This is a perfect example of why it's so difficult to narrow the playoff field to just four teams.

Of that group, which two teams would deserve to make the playoff? According to the latest AP Top 25 rankings, it would be Michigan State and Georgia, who are both ahead of Baylor currently. Then again, No. 6 Oregon (119) is ranked higher than all three of those teams in the AP Top 25 yet possesses a lower DBA Power Rating than them.

Even top-ranked Mississippi State (115.5) would not be guaranteed a spot in a 16-team playoff field if it was determined solely by DBA Power Ratings because the Bulldogs are tied at No. 16 with Clemson, Nebraska and USC. Teams ahead of Mississippi State that have not  already been mentioned by rating include Notre Dame (116), LSU (116.5), TCU (117), Ole Miss (117), Oklahoma (117.5), UCLA (118), Stanford (118), Auburn (118) and Ohio State (118.5).

The key to understanding the DBA Power Ratings is realizing they are formulated based on projections for the entire season and used to create hypothetical point spreads. For example, Alabama is projected to finish with an 11-1 record with Florida State at 12-0. The difference in their ratings is four points, so the Crimson Tide would be favored by that number against the defending national champion Seminoles on a neutral field. That could very well end up being this year's national title game.

Mississippi State is projected to finish at 10-2 with losses to Alabama and Ole Miss in two of the last three games of the regular season. If that happens, the Bulldogs likely will be left out of the playoff field.

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