By conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of
schedule is simple and straightforward.
The common approach is to collectively
add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help
determine each opponent's potential win probability for the coming campaign.
Playbook
Method: NFL Strength Of Schedule vis-a-vis Season Win Totals
Another
variable is to assess each opponent's season win totals for the
upcoming season and tally the accumulative amount of wins.
It's my contention this represents a
truer methodology. After all, which is more relevant: knowing how an opponent
fared in last year's battles, or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting
them this year?
SuperBook
Season Win Totals
Let's take a look at the opening 2019
NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on April
30.
Teams
are ranked from top-to-bottom based on each team's foes most projected
season win totals to the fewest season win totals.
|
Team
|
Team Win
Total
|
Foes Win
Totals
|
vs
Division
|
vs Non
Division
|
|
Houston Texans
|
8.5
|
137
|
51
|
86
|
|
Denver Broncos
|
7
|
135
|
52
|
83
|
|
Oakland Raiders
|
6
|
135
|
54
|
81
|
|
Atlanta Falcons
|
8.5
|
134.5
|
50
|
84.5
|
|
Chicago Bears
|
9
|
134
|
49
|
85
|
|
Tennessee Titans
|
8
|
134
|
52
|
82
|
|
Arizona Cardinals
|
5
|
132.5
|
54
|
78.5
|
|
Carolina Panthers
|
8
|
132.5
|
51
|
81.5
|
|
Miami Dolphins
|
5
|
132.5
|
52
|
80.5
|
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
6.5
|
132.5
|
54
|
78.5
|
|
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
8
|
132
|
52
|
80
|
|
Kansas City Chiefs
|
10.5
|
132
|
45
|
87
|
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
8.5
|
131.5
|
47
|
84.5
|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
9
|
130
|
49
|
81
|
|
New Orleans Saints
|
10.5
|
130
|
46
|
84
|
|
Detroit Lions
|
6.5
|
129.5
|
56
|
73.5
|
|
Indianapolis Colts
|
9.5
|
129.5
|
49
|
80.5
|
|
San Francisco 49ers
|
8
|
129.5
|
48
|
81.5.
|
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
8.5
|
129
|
48
|
80.5
|
|
Cincinnati Bengals
|
6
|
129
|
53
|
76
|
|
Green Bay Packers
|
9
|
129
|
49
|
80
|
|
Washington Redskins
|
6.5
|
129
|
49
|
80
|
|
Dallas Cowboys
|
9
|
128.5
|
44
|
84.5
|
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
9.5
|
128.5
|
47
|
81.5
|
|
Pittsburg Steelers
|
9
|
128
|
47
|
81
|
|
Los Angeles Rams
|
10.5
|
127
|
43
|
84
|
|
Buffalo Bills
|
6.5
|
125
|
47
|
78.5
|
|
New York Giants
|
6
|
125
|
50
|
75
|
|
Cleveland Browns
|
9
|
124
|
47
|
77
|
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
9.5
|
123.5
|
43
|
80.5
|
|
New York Jets
|
7.5
|
122.5
|
45
|
77.5
|
|
New England Patriots
|
11
|
120.5
|
38
|
82.5
|
|
As you can see by this method, Arizona
will take on the most difficult schedule, followed by Tampa bay and the New
York Giants. On the flip side, Houston and New England has the cushiest
schedule in 2019, with the New York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles also
beneficiaries of a soft slate.
In addition Houston also faces the
toughest non-division schedule with Detroit going up against the easiest
non-division foes. Finally, again it's New England facing the weakest division
slate, and Detroit drawing the toughest division pairings.
Also note that many of the
opening season-win totals carried extra "juice" (i.e. Buffalo 6.5
"over" -130, Houston 8.5 "under" -140). For the purpose of this study the extra
cost was removed from all season win totals.
For more on Marc Lawrence click here.