AFC Showdown: Broncos vs. Patriots Betting Preview From Jim Feist

Brady vs. Manning again! Brady is 10-5 SU head to head with manning, but Peyton got the big win in January's AFC title game, 26-16. This is the sttart of a 3-game road trip for Denver, a team that is just 1-1 on the road. The Pats end a 3-game home stand here. The Patriots are a home dog, but 25-1 SU at home in October.

  These teams met twice last year: The Pats rallied from 24-0 down at the half to beat Denver on this field, November 24, 2013, 34-31 in OT. The Pats had edge in yards 440-412, while Denver led in rushing by a whopping 280-116! It was a sloppy game as Denver had 4 TOs, the Pats 3.

   In the AFC title game Denver won 26-16 with an edge in yards 507-320. Manning: 32-43 400 yds, 2 TDs, no picks. The Broncos held the ball for 35:44. They were 7 for 13 on third-down conversions. Peyton Manning really had all day to throw, with New England pressuring Manning on 3-of-43 dropbacks (7%).  

  The Broncos are 9-20 ATS away vs. a team with a winning home record and 28-14-2 over the total since Peyton arrived. Check the weather conditions, as early reports say 38 degree temperatures, windy conditions and maybe some rain or snow.

Check out all of Jim's football selections for tonight and all weekend long, including his Monday Night Total oft eh Year and a 4-1 run with College Games of the Month. All here at Don Best.com.  

(6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) Broncos:  5-0 at home, 1-1 away,  55-26-1 run over

• 2014 Offense: 32 ppg (No. 1), 3^rd in passing (297 yards), 21^st in rushing (101 pg)
• 38-year old Manning: 22 TDs, 3 INTs, 2,134 yards and only 8 sacks.
• 26-year old WR Demaryius Thomas (767 yards), 26-year old 6-5 TE Julius Thomas (327), 27-year old WR Emmanuel Sanders (634 yards).  
• 2013 Offense: 37.9 points, 457 yards pasing, both tops in NFL.
• 2013 Defense: 8^th against the run, 27^th against the pass allowing 254.4 yds pg.
• 2014 Defense: Tops against the run (72), 17^th vs pass (243 yds pg).
• Beat Chargers on Thursday, 35-21: Edge in yards 425-306. Sanders caught all nine passes Manning threw his way and gained 120 yards Thursday night. Manning finished 25 of 35 for 286 yards with three TDs and no interceptions or sacks five nights after breaking Brett Favre's career touchdown mark. Rivers finished 30 of 41 for 252 yards with three TDs and two interceptions.
• "John Elway and his staff went out and wanted to increase our team speed in all phases of the game and I think we've done that," coach John Fox said.
• Beat Arizona (41-20): 568-215 in yds, Manning: 31-47 for 479 yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTs. The Broncos' offensive output was their best in franchise history. They had 567 yards against Atlanta in 2004.
• Denver 24-11-1 run over the total.
• Over is 27-7 vs. a team with a winning record.  
• Broncos are 9-20 ATS away vs. a team with a winning home record.

(6-2 SU/4-4 ATS) Pats: 43-19 over vs. AFC  - 55-25 run over. 

• 37-year old QB Tom Brady: 18 TDs, 2 INTs, 13 sacks.
• TE Rob Gronkowski (558 yds), WR Julian Edelman (467), WR Brandon LaFell (501).   Pats on 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS run scoring 43, 37, 27, 51.
• 2014 Offense:   10^th in passing (257.5 yards pg), 17^th in rushing (105.6 pg)
• 2014 Defense:   25^th against the run (129), No. 2 vs pass (211 yds pg).
• Injuries: RB Steve Ridley, Jerard Mayo done for the year; DE Chandler Jones out 1 month (hip).
• Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
• Over is 37-17-1 in Patriots last 55 home games.  44-19 over vs AFC.
• Beat Bears, 51-23, edge in yards 487-384, defense forced 2 TOs. Bears 4-11 on third down. Brady: 30-35, 354 yards, 5 TDs, no picks.
• Denver 0-4 ATS at Pats, 1-4 ATS last 5 meetings, over 4-1, Home team 4-0 ATS, chalk 5-0 ATS, 3-0-1 over in New England.