NFL Line Watch Week 12

NFL Line Watch Week 12

Each week during the pro football season, AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet on now

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-13.5)

Lots of good things are happening in Pittsburgh, there the Steelers have won five in a row and have built up a head of steam as they match the Patriots win for win in preparation for their AFC showdown game a month from now. The Steelers should have little trouble taking care of the disorganized Packers this coming weekend, then will polish of the Ravens and Bengals before dealing with the Patriots. Piece by piece Pittsburgh has been rebuilding its once-great defense, and now the Steelers have the 4th-rated defensive unit in the NFL. That meshes nice with an offense that is just outside the top 10. So things are humming, which makes you wonder if Ben Roethlisberger is still questioning himself and whether he still has the chops to play in the league. This line opened at 14.5 and dropped a point to 13.5, so there probably won’t be another move.

Game to wait on

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas (-1) (Thursday)

Have to scratch your head at the early line movement on this one. Dallas opened at -4 and it was immediately bet down to -1 despite the Cowboys’ embarrassing beatdown by Philadelphia at home on Sunday night. Between the national anthem mess, Ezekial Elliott suspension and Jerry Jones’s maniacal mission to get Roger Goodell out of the league, you have to wonder if the Boys are really focused on football. Dallas has playoff talent, but the numbers (5-5 SU, 242 points scored and 242 allowed) don’t lie. And if things are bad enough, here come the Chargers, who scored 54 on Sunday. The loser of this one will be playing the rest of the season only to comply with NFL rules.

Total to watch

New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams (54)

Over players need to be cautious on this one. The Rams had been putting up huge numbers against mediocre opponents heading in this past Sunday’s game against the Vikings, but got stoned by Minnesota’s defense. The Vikes held Jared Goff without a TD pass and limited Todd Gurley to 37 yards on 15 carries. Oddsmakers obviously figure that neither of those numbers won’t be replicated on Sunday; thus the high total, which opened at 53.5 and has already been bet up. This is a very important game for both teams, and that sometimes means a more conservative game plan.

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