I’ll start breaking down the NFL by division for the 2018
season. Today, I’m starting with the AFC West, one of the most competitive
divisions in football.
The current odds to win the division are : Oakland Raiders +190, Los Angeles Chargers +225,
Kansas City Chiefs +240, Denver Broncos +380
I don’t agree with these odds. I have the Chargers and Broncos, co-favorites.
Oakland
Raiders : The Oakland Raiders have a
new head coach in Jon Gruden. He has been out of football for a number of
years, so in a way he brings a different perspective to the league than what we
remember. He is older and lot richer,
not that we can handicap either of those facts. Derek Carr did not have the year
that was expected of him in 2017. I believe Gruden is too smart to allow him to
be without better protection and wideouts. Gruden has been signing a number of
veterans during the off season. No one can know for sure how effective that
method of rebuilding will be, as only time will tell. However, be that as it
may, I don’t believe they should be favored to win the division. They had the
20th ranked defense in the league last year and I don’t see a lot of
improvement in that area for 2018. I’m
predicting a 3rd place finish behind LA and Denver.
Los
Angeles Chargers: The Los Angeles
Chargers have the most experienced quarterback in the division in Philip
Rivers. The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos have new starting
quarterbacks. However Keenum for Denver has a lot of experience as well.
Rivers, however has never been consistent in big games. He has a running game
with Melvin Gordon. Losing their tight end will not help, but they will be able to pick up talent on
the open market by preseason. The defense for the Chargers was very good last
season, particularly against the pass, as they were third in the league in new
passing
yards per attempt. They have also added quality
and depth on defense and that will make them very tough this year. Good chance
they will make the playoffs this year.
Kansas
City Chiefs: The Chiefs are the defending AFC West Champions, but
they are the third choice to win the division. Kansas City let Alex Smith and
Marcus Peters get away, so they are hoping that Patrick Mahomes is ready for
the lead role at quarterback this season and they hope to
find someone to replace Peters in the secondary.
Mahomes is facing a lot of pressure to perform at a high level this season and
if he fails the Chiefs are in serious trouble. Kansas City does have some
weapons
surrounding Mahomes in Kareem Hunt, Travis
Kelce, Tyreek Hill and they added Sammy Watkins. Kansas City’s defense was just
15th in the NFL last season, so the offense has to carry this team. I’m
predicting a last place finish in the division and not making the playoffs
Denver
Broncos: The Broncos have a new
starting quarterback this season, as Case Keenum comes over from the Vikings.
Keenum is a huge upgrade from what Denver had at quarterback last season and he
should give the Broncos a chance compete for this division and get to the
playoffs. . The
Broncos defense slipped a little bit last
season, but with a better offense will give them some rest, and with the
addition of Bradley Chubb, Denver with a few added pieces should be very good
defensively. The Broncos did let Aqib Talib go, but his best days are behind
him. Denver will be counting heavily on Bradley Roby and Chris Harris to play
well in the secondary this season. John Elway is the master at
the control on this team and I feel he did a
poor job after winning the Super Bowl a few years ago. He is making up
for it with his off season moves. They will battle with LA for the division and
have a good
chance at the playoffs.
2018 AFC West Predictions: I personally don’t bet futures unless I get
monster prices. This division
offers absolutely zero value in that regard. I
see a real battle between the Chargers and Broncos. Should be fun barring any
serious injuries.
Check out Jim Feist's picks here.